Expert NBA Picks and Player Props: Best NBA Bets Today Nov. 11

My NBA picks and player props for Wednesday, Nov. 11 start with a Pacers team I’m still buying after a rough start. I’m also taking the points with Toronto after Boston’s big night in Philadelphia and backing Portland to win a second straight game against Oklahoma City.

There are 10 games on the slate, and Tuesday night matters quite a bit to this card. Boston has to get back up for another road game, while the Thunder and Trail Blazers get to do it all over again in the same building. I’ve got three game picks and three player props, including one from that Wizards-Pacers matchup.

Best NBA Picks and Player Props Today Nov. 11

I’m laying a short number with Indiana, taking the extra room with Toronto, and going straight to the moneyline with Portland. The Blazers are the underdog I like to win outright.

NBA Best Bet #1: Wizards vs. Pacers — Indiana -3.5

It’s been a weird start for both of these teams. The Pacers are 3-8, and the Wizards are 4-7. I still think Indiana is good enough to be a contender this year, and I think it’s a much better team than Washington. The Pacers haven’t played like it consistently, but I’m willing to lay 3.5 at home in this matchup given the odds.

Being without Tyrese Haliburton has obviously made things tougher. Indiana has to work harder for good looks without him pushing the pace and setting the table. But there’s still enough talent in the lineup to win this game by a couple of possessions. Andrew Nembhard can handle the ball, and Pascal Siakam gives Indiana someone it can go to when the offense slows down.

Washington having one more win doesn’t change how I see these two teams. I’m asking Indiana to win by four at home, and I think the Pacers can create enough separation late to cover that.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers -3.5 at -110 via DraftKings

NBA Best Bet #2: Celtics vs. Raptors — Toronto +7.5

Boston is 8-2, and what it did in Philadelphia on Tuesday was impressive. The Celtics won 123-101 in the first meeting between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown since the trade. That was a huge game, and I think it’s going to be a tough act to follow one night later in Toronto.

It’s hard to maintain that same level of effort and attention to detail coming off an emotional win. Boston can play a good game and still leave the door open for Toronto to cover. The Raptors are 5-5, and I think they’re good enough to hang around at home, even with Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes out.

Those are significant absences, especially if Toronto needs to create shots late. That’s why I want the full 7.5. At -133 on most sports betting sites, I’m paying for the extra room, but I can see Boston winning this one without pulling away the way it did against Philadelphia.

Prediction: Toronto Raptors +7.5 at -133 via BetMGM

NBA Best Bet #3: Thunder vs. Trail Blazers — Portland Moneyline

This feels like a little mini-series. Portland won the first game 123-103 on Tuesday, and both teams are right back at the Moda Center on Wednesday. The Thunder are still good even with all their injuries, but the Blazers’ depth really mattered in the first game, and Damian Lillard is playing well. He scored 25 points in the win.

The other big selling point is that Portland has the defenders to make Shai Gilgeous-Alexander work. He still scored 26 on Tuesday, but Oklahoma City only got up 22 threes and made eight. Without Jalen Williams in the first meeting, the Thunder had one fewer creator to turn to when Portland made it tough for Gilgeous-Alexander to get where he wanted.

I don’t need the Blazers to win by 20 again. I like that they can put different defenders on Gilgeous-Alexander and have enough scoring around Lillard to get through the stretches when he sits. Give me Portland at plus money.

Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers moneyline at +110 via DraftKings

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Best NBA Player Props Today Nov. 11

I’m going back to Indiana for the points prop, then taking a young guard’s assists in New Orleans and a volume shooter’s threes in Houston.

NBA Player Prop #1: Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 Points

Siakam is still a premier scorer in this league, and with Haliburton out, the Pacers are going to need him to keep putting up points. He scored 29 against Dallas on Monday, taking 16 shots from the field and eight free throws. That’s the kind of workload I want when the line is 21.5 on most sports betting apps.

Siakam made five threes in that game, but he can get to 22 against Washington without shooting that well from deep. He can get downhill against a closeout, work from the midrange, and get to the line. Indiana needs him to keep looking for his own shot, which is why I like the Over here.

Prediction: Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points at -115 via DraftKings

NBA Player Prop #2: Jeremiah Fears Over 4.5 Assists

Jeremiah Fears is one of the young guards I’m most excited about right now. He can do a little bit of everything, and what I like about this matchup with Brooklyn is that he can get to five assists just by doing what he already does for New Orleans.

Fears had eight assists against Golden State on Monday, even though the Pelicans scored only 87 points. He also had five against Minnesota last Friday. When he gets into the paint, he can force a defender to step over and find a teammate. I’m comfortable laying -142 against the Nets because he’s getting those chances even on nights when the offense isn’t clicking.

Prediction: Jeremiah Fears Over 4.5 assists at -142 via BetMGM

NBA Player Prop #3: Jabari Smith Jr. Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

I like getting plus money on Jabari Smith Jr. to make three threes against Golden State. He’s been a high-volume shooter for Houston and has hit 44.8% of his threes through 11 games. He took eight against Denver on Monday and made two. I’m more interested in the eight attempts than I am in the two makes.

When Houston’s offense draws help inside, Smith is someone I want taking those kickout threes. If he gets a similar number of looks against Golden State, three makes is well within reach. At +129, I’ll take that shot as two NBA Finals contenders take the floor.

Prediction: Jabari Smith Jr. Over 2.5 three-pointers made at +129 via BetMGM