Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Player Props - March 1st 2026

Written By Nick Crain | Last Updated at March 1, 2026
National Basketball Association
Thunder
Away
01/03/2026
8:00pm
Mavericks
Home

In Thunder at Mavericks, the prop board tends to reward the players who live in stable minutes and repeatable touches. Thunder and Mavericks both come in with recent form worth noting, which matters when rotations tighten and roles stay consistent.

Two markets we keep coming back to are Points + Assists and Points + Rebounds + Assists. For Points + Assists, the players to watch are Chet Holmgren for Thunder and Brandon Williams for Mavericks. In Points + Rebounds + Assists, start with Chet Holmgren on the Thunder side and Naji Marshall for Mavericks. This is a clean way to see which names sit at the center of the action.

The approach in this article is straightforward: highlight the player stats that drive each market, then combine them with the props to find the sweet spot. For the full game breakdown, read the full Thunder vs Mavericks matchup preview.



Pace and efficiency for OKC at DAL player props

Tempo and execution set the floor for props, since more possessions create more chances to rack up stats. The notes below bucket each metric into five outcomes so the edge is easy to spot. For the latest lines and totals, visit the NBA odds page.

Metric Away Team
Thunder
Home Team
Mavericks
Notes
Pace (Poss/Game) 101.9 104.3 Mavericks strong advantage: at a glance, they play at a clearly faster tempo, which usually leads to possession volume to climb and lift counting stats.
PPG (Season) 119.5 114.4 Thunder slight advantage: by the numbers, their scoring baseline runs a bit higher, which points to look for points outcomes to have a little more cushion.
Offensive Rating 116.2 108.5 Thunder strong advantage: in this profile, they are the clearly more efficient offense, which tends to mean possessions to produce higher-quality looks more consistently.
Defensive Rating 104.9 112.3 Thunder strong advantage: on the season, they grade as the tougher defense, which tends to mean scoring efficiency to be harder to come by.

Rest, travel, and back-to-backs can change how stable a rotation looks from start to finish. The notes below sort every workload stat into five outcomes and show which side benefits.

Workload metric Away Team
Thunder
Home Team
Mavericks
Notes
Games in last 7 days 3 4 Thunder slight advantage: in this spot, they have played fewer games in the last seven days, making it fair to look for legs to be a bit fresher late.
Time zone changes (last 7) 1 1 Even: by the numbers, time-zone change totals are similar over the last week, so project routines to be steady for both teams.
Miles travelled (last 7) 3,844 3,507 Mavericks slight advantage: on this slate, they have travelled fewer miles in the last week, making it fair to project travel fatigue to be slightly lower.
Days since last game 2 2 Even: in this game, rest days since the last game match, which should leave expect recovery to be similar entering tip-off.
Back-to-back No No Even: at a glance, neither team is on a back-to-back, which usually leads to rest to be close to normal for both teams.
Rest advantage vs opponent 0 0 Even: by the numbers, there is no clear rest-advantage separation, which points to expect rest edge to be minimal.
Previous opponent strength 61.7 37.9 Mavericks strong advantage: overall, their previous opponent graded noticeably lighter, setting up expect carryover wear to be meaningfully lower.
Travel miles since last game 189 0 Mavericks slight advantage: overall, they travelled less between the last game and this one, so plan for travel fatigue to be a bit lower.
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NBA injury report for OKC at DAL: out, questionable, and impact

Below is the updated status board for Thunder and Mavericks. If the report removes a chunk of minutes, projections tend to hinge on who can stay on the floor and who becomes the first option to absorb shots and assists. For a broader futures snapshot, see NBA title odds.

Squad Ruled out In doubt Injured impact (MPG • PPG)
Thunder 4
1 out
0
1 questionable
66.0 MPG • 36.5 PPG
Mavericks 4
1 out
4
1 questionable
171.5 MPG • 82.5 PPG


Thunder at Mavericks Player Assists Props Picks

The Starting point for Player Assists Props is whether the teams create a reliable creation picture environment. Oklahoma City Thunder is 59.6% in assist rate with 25.7 assists per game and 12.1 turnovers per game. Dallas Mavericks is 59.2%, 25.1, 14.3.

A controlled assist environment is the base of Player Assists Props: assist rate keeps the ball moving, assists per game shows the volume, and turnovers per game shows how often plays die early. Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks are close on rate and volume, so mistakes can be the stat that swing the lean.

NBA Player AST/G Minutes Usage % Assist %
Jared McCain (OKC) 0.9 19 24.2% 6.9%
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 3.5 26 17% 19.3%
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 1.3 28 14.1% 6.1%
Cason Wallace (OKC) 2.6 27 14.8% 12.4%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 6.5 33 33.9% 34.6%
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 1.8 29 21.9% 8.9%
Khris Middleton (DAL) 2.9 24 22.6% 17.4%
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 0.9 21 14.6% 6%
Caleb Martin (DAL) 1.6 14 12.1% 14%
Naji Marshall (DAL) 3.1 30 19.8% 15.1%
Brandon Williams (DAL) 3.9 22 25.6% 26.2%
Max Christie (DAL) 2.2 30 16.9% 10.4%
NBA Player Prop Bet / Assist Line Best Bookmaker Odds Odds
Jared McCain (OKC) o1.5
u1.5
unibet
unibet
-110
-121
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) o3.5
u3.5
fanatics
fanatics
+100
-132
Luguentz Dort (OKC) o1.5
u1.5
fanatics
fanatics
+120
-167
Cason Wallace (OKC) o4.5
u4.5
fanatics
fanatics
+240
-435
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) o8.5
u8.5
fanatics
fanatics
+185
-303
Chet Holmgren (OKC) o2.5
u2.5
fanatics
fanatics
+155
-250
Khris Middleton (DAL) o1.5
u1.5
fanatics
fanatics
-526
+290
Daniel Gafford (DAL) o0.5
u0.5
fanatics
fanatics
-167
+120
Caleb Martin (DAL) o2.5
u2.5
fanatics
fanatics
+110
-147
Naji Marshall (DAL) o3.5
u3.5
fanduel
fanduel
+116
-154
Brandon Williams (DAL) o3.5
u3.5
fanatics
fanatics
-278
+170
Max Christie (DAL) o0.5
u0.5
fanatics
fanatics
-1250
+500


Thunder vs Mavericks NBA Player 3PM Props

Recent 3P% gives the best snapshot of current rhythm, and Dallas Mavericks is at 33.7 while Oklahoma City Thunder is at 39.5. The season 3-point percentage baseline is 0.2 for Dallas Mavericks and 0.2 for Oklahoma City Thunder.

NBA Player Minutes Usage% 3P% 3PM line Proxy 3PM
Jared McCain (OKC) 19 24.2 45.9 0.5 2.11
Isaiah Joe (OKC) 21 18.2 42.6 2.5 1.63
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 28 14.1 34.5 2.5 1.36
Cason Wallace (OKC) 27 14.8 35.5 0.5 1.42
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 33 33.9 38.5 1.5 4.31
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 29 21.9 35.3 1.5 2.24
Khris Middleton (DAL) 24 22.6 36.4 2.5 1.97
Klay Thompson (DAL) 22 22.5 38.1 1.5 1.89
Caleb Martin (DAL) 14 12.1 37.2 1.5 0.63
Naji Marshall (DAL) 30 19.8 29.5 0.5 1.75
Brandon Williams (DAL) 22 25.6 24.2 2.5 1.36
AJ Johnson (DAL) 9 19.8 18.2 1.5 0.32
Max Christie (DAL) 30 16.9 41.9 2.5 2.12
NBA Player Prop Bet / 3PM Line Best Bookmaker Odds Odds
Jared McCain (OKC) o0.5
u0.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-385
+225
Isaiah Joe (OKC) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+125
-175
Luguentz Dort (OKC) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+200
-357
Cason Wallace (OKC) o0.5
u0.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-435
+240
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) o1.5
u1.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+155
-250
Chet Holmgren (OKC) o1.5
u1.5
Sportingbet
Sportingbet
+155
-210
Khris Middleton (DAL) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+300
-556
Klay Thompson (DAL) o1.5
u1.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-455
+260
Caleb Martin (DAL) o1.5
u1.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+320
-667
Naji Marshall (DAL) o0.5
u0.5
Betmgm
Betmgm
-190
+145
Brandon Williams (DAL) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+425
-1000
AJ Johnson (DAL) o1.5
u1.5
Sportingbet
Sportingbet
+170
-235
Max Christie (DAL) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+105
-141


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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Player Points Prop Picks and Best Lines

In the last 10 matchups , Oklahoma City Thunder is 6-4 with a 60% win rate, posting 114.5 points per game while giving up 110.8. Dallas Mavericks sits at 2-8 with a 20% win rate, scoring 115.7 and allowing 124.7. That frame is the backdrop for NBA player points props.

The quick way to read points props is combining who is scoring lately with who is leaking points lately. Oklahoma City Thunder grades out better by that blend, and it is a practical filter before choosing a side.

NBA Player PTS/G Minutes Usage % TS %
Jared McCain (OKC) 11.9 19 24.2% 63%
Isaiah Joe (OKC) 10.8 21 18.2% 64.9%
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 10.6 26 17% 65.5%
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 8.8 28 14.1% 52.6%
Cason Wallace (OKC) 8.9 27 14.8% 53.8%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 31.9 33 33.9% 66.5%
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 17.2 29 21.9% 64.7%
Khris Middleton (DAL) 13.9 24 22.6% 61.9%
Klay Thompson (DAL) 11.5 22 22.5% 53.3%
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 8.2 21 14.6% 67%
Caleb Martin (DAL) 3.6 14 12.1% 52.6%
Naji Marshall (DAL) 15.4 30 19.8% 61.3%
Brandon Williams (DAL) 13 22 25.6% 56.2%
AJ Johnson (DAL) 3.6 9 19.8% 45.4%
Max Christie (DAL) 13.2 30 16.9% 61.9%
NBA Player Prop Bet / Points Line Best Bookmaker Odds
Jared McCain (OKC) o7.5
u7.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-227
+140
Isaiah Joe (OKC) o8.5
u8.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-213
+135
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) o9.5
u9.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-152
+115
Luguentz Dort (OKC) o7.5
u7.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-167
+120
Cason Wallace (OKC) o10.5
u10.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-105
-125
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) o30.5
u30.5
Caesars
Caesars
-125
-106
Chet Holmgren (OKC) o15.5
u15.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-192
+130
Khris Middleton (DAL) o15.5
u15.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+135
-213
Klay Thompson (DAL) o11.5
u11.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-147
+110
Daniel Gafford (DAL) o10.5
u10.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+155
-250
Caleb Martin (DAL) o5.5
u5.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-213
+135
Naji Marshall (DAL) o16.5
u16.5
BetMGM
BetMGM
-130
-105
Brandon Williams (DAL) o18.5
u18.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+115
-152
AJ Johnson (DAL) o10.5
u10.5
Sportingbet
Sportingbet
-120
-110
Max Christie (DAL) o15.5
u15.5
DraftKings
DraftKings
-116
-110


Thunder at Mavericks Player Points + Assists Prop Picks

Across the past five games, Oklahoma City Thunder land at 4-1, while Dallas Mavericks land at 2-3.

When one side is winning more, points plus assists props can follow, and this straight signal leans Oklahoma City Thunder off the last five results.

NBA Player PTS/G AST/G PTS+AST Minutes Usage %
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 10.6 3.5 14.1 26 17%
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 8.8 1.3 10.1 28 14.1%
Cason Wallace (OKC) 8.9 2.6 11.5 27 14.8%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 31.9 6.5 38.4 33 33.9%
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 17.2 1.8 19 29 21.9%
Khris Middleton (DAL) 13.9 2.9 16.8 24 22.6%
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 8.2 0.9 9.1 21 14.6%
Caleb Martin (DAL) 3.6 1.6 5.2 14 12.1%
Naji Marshall (DAL) 15.4 3.1 18.5 30 19.8%
Brandon Williams (DAL) 13 3.9 16.9 22 25.6%
Max Christie (DAL) 13.2 2.2 15.4 30 16.9%
NBA Player Prop Bet / Points + Assists Line Bookmaker Odds
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) o13.5
u13.5
FanDuel
FanDuel
-130
-102
Luguentz Dort (OKC) o10.5
u10.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+100
-132
Cason Wallace (OKC) o13.5
u13.5
FanDuel
FanDuel
-110
-120
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) o38.5
u38.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+100
-132
Chet Holmgren (OKC) o19.5
u19.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-120
-111
Khris Middleton (DAL) o17.5
u17.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+105
-141
Daniel Gafford (DAL) o9.5
u9.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-116
-116
Caleb Martin (DAL) o9.5
u9.5
FanDuel
FanDuel
-114
-114
Naji Marshall (DAL) o21.5
u21.5
BetMGM
BetMGM
-105
-125
Brandon Williams (DAL) o21.5
u21.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-132
+100
Max Christie (DAL) o18.5
u18.5
DraftKings
DraftKings
-103
-127


Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks NBA Player Rebounds Prop Picks

Neither cross matchup clearly favors the offense, so rebounds are more likely to be driven by baseline volume like rebounds per game, where Oklahoma City Thunder sits at 43.9 and Dallas Mavericks sits at 44.7, with the offensive leader Both teams and defensive leader Both teams shaping the margins.

Each team’s best rebounds prop leans on rebounds per game versus the posted rebounds line, supported by minutes per game plus rebound percentage, and the final pick is the option that reads best when the difference clears 0.5.

NBA Player REB/G Minutes Usage % REB%
Jared McCain (OKC) 3.1 19 24.2% 8.8%
Isaiah Joe (OKC) 2.6 21 18.2% 6.6%
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 9.5 26 17% 20%
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 3.8 28 14.1% 7.4%
Cason Wallace (OKC) 3.2 27 14.8% 6.3%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 4.4 33 33.9% 7.2%
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 9 29 21.9% 16.7%
Khris Middleton (DAL) 4.3 24 22.6% 9.5%
Klay Thompson (DAL) 2.4 22 22.5% 5.7%
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 6.4 21 14.6% 15.8%
Caleb Martin (DAL) 2.5 14 12.1% 9.1%
Naji Marshall (DAL) 4.9 30 19.8% 8.7%
Brandon Williams (DAL) 2.9 22 25.6% 6.9%
AJ Johnson (DAL) 0.9 9 19.8% 4.9%
Max Christie (DAL) 3.4 30 16.9% 6.1%
NBA Player Prop Bet / Rebound Line Best Bookmaker Odds Odds
Jared McCain (OKC) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-105
-125
Isaiah Joe (OKC) o2.5
u2.5
unibet
unibet
-124
-108
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) o9.5
u9.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+140
-227
Luguentz Dort (OKC) o3.5
u3.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-132
+100
Cason Wallace (OKC) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-192
+130
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) o5.5
u5.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+225
-385
Chet Holmgren (OKC) o7.5
u7.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-227
+140
Khris Middleton (DAL) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-385
+225
Klay Thompson (DAL) o1.5
u1.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-278
+170
Daniel Gafford (DAL) o5.5
u5.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-278
+170
Caleb Martin (DAL) o2.5
u2.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-303
+185
Naji Marshall (DAL) o5.5
u5.5
BetMGM
BetMGM
+105
-140
Brandon Williams (DAL) o3.5
u3.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+105
-141
AJ Johnson (DAL) o3.5
u3.5
BetMGM
BetMGM
+110
-150
Max Christie (DAL) o4.5
u4.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+160
-278


Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks Points + Rebounds + Assists Props Picks

For Points + rebounds + assists props, scoring gravity matters, but so do the misses that create rebound volume. A higher offensive rating tends to nudge points and assists up, while a lower defensive rating can keep the game tighter and shift PRA toward rebounds. The quick case is which side wins that trade between makes and misses. The Dallas Mavericks field-goal percentage and the Oklahoma City Thunder field-goal percentage are worth a fast scan because made shots can drive assists while missed shots can stack rebounds.

Season results help frame reliability, so the Dallas Mavericks win percentage and the Oklahoma City Thunder win percentage act like a quick stability read. From there, the model takes a sharp look : compare each NBA Player PRA per game to the prop line and rank by edge plus payout, selecting one best pick per side.

NBA Player PTS/G REB/G AST/G PRA/G Minutes Usage %
Jared McCain (OKC) 11.9 3.1 0.9 15.9 19 24.2%
Isaiah Joe (OKC) 10.8 2.6 1.5 14.9 21 18.2%
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 10.6 9.5 3.5 23.6 26 17%
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 8.8 3.8 1.3 13.9 28 14.1%
Cason Wallace (OKC) 8.9 3.2 2.6 14.7 27 14.8%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 31.9 4.4 6.5 42.8 33 33.9%
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 17.2 9 1.8 28 29 21.9%
Khris Middleton (DAL) 13.9 4.3 2.9 21.1 24 22.6%
Klay Thompson (DAL) 11.5 2.4 1.4 15.3 22 22.5%
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 8.2 6.4 0.9 15.5 21 14.6%
Caleb Martin (DAL) 3.6 2.5 1.6 7.7 14 12.1%
Naji Marshall (DAL) 15.4 4.9 3.1 23.4 30 19.8%
Brandon Williams (DAL) 13 2.9 3.9 19.8 22 25.6%
AJ Johnson (DAL) 3.6 0.9 0.9 5.4 9 19.8%
Max Christie (DAL) 13.2 3.4 2.2 18.8 30 16.9%
NBA Player Prop Bet (Points + Rebounds + Assists Line) Bookmaker Odds
Jared McCain (OKC) o13.5
u13.5
Caesars
Caesars
-117
-114
Isaiah Joe (OKC) o14.5
u14.5
sportingbet
sportingbet
-120
-110
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) o24.5
u24.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+135
-213
Luguentz Dort (OKC) o13.5
u13.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-132
+100
Cason Wallace (OKC) o17.5
u17.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+110
-147
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) o42.5
u42.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-105
-125
Chet Holmgren (OKC) o28.5
u28.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-125
-105
Khris Middleton (DAL) o21.5
u21.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
+105
-141
Klay Thompson (DAL) o16.5
u16.5
sportingbet
sportingbet
-110
-118
Daniel Gafford (DAL) o16.5
u16.5
sportingbet
sportingbet
-118
-110
Caleb Martin (DAL) o13.5
u13.5
Caesars
Caesars
-118
-113
Naji Marshall (DAL) o26.5
u26.5
BetMGM
BetMGM
-140
+105
Brandon Williams (DAL) o25.5
u25.5
Fanatics
Fanatics
-116
-116
AJ Johnson (DAL) o16.5
u16.5
BetMGM
BetMGM
-125
-105
Max Christie (DAL) o21.5
u21.5
Caesars
Caesars
-129
-104


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Thunder come in this matchup with Mavericks and the prop read starts with the game script. Think a faster tempo, plus which stars are most likely to carry the action. Thunder has played at roughly a 60% win clip over its last ten, and Mavericks is around 20%.

If you want a clean place to start, begin here. For Points + Assists, the two players to keep an eye on are Chet Holmgren for Thunder and Brandon Williams for Mavericks. Those are the names that tend to stay involved no matter the score.

In Points + Rebounds + Assists, start with Chet Holmgren on the Thunder side and Naji Marshall for Mavericks. This is why props are a rotation story first, and a matchup story second. For the full game breakdown, read the full matchup preview.