Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds, Picks & Predictions - Game 6 05/28
It’s the continuation of a Western Conference Finals series as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder make the trip to clash with the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 Thursday night and we have things covered with our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction. San Antonio drew first blood as they held off the Thunder 122-115 in double overtime on the road in Game 1. The Spurs won outright in that contest as a 7.5-point underdog. In Game 2, Oklahoma City squared the series by picking up a 122-113 home win last Wednesday night. The Thunder covered the line as a 7.5-point favorite.
Oklahoma City regained home court advantage with a 123-108 road win in Game 3 on Friday night. The Thunder won outright as a 3.5-point underdog. San Antonio evened the series with a 103-82 home triumph in Game 4 Sunday, covering as a 3.5-point favorite. Oklahoma City took Game 5 127-114 at home Tuesday night for a 3-2 series lead. The Thunder covered the line as a 3.5-point favorite. Will the Spurs force Game 7 or can the Thunder advance to the Finals?
In the all-time playoff series between the teams, San Antonio has won four of the six previous series. The Spurs own a 21-18 advantage in head-to-head playoff victories. Let’s break down this Thunder vs. Spurs matchup.
Thunder Trying to Punch Return Ticket to NBA Finals
Oklahoma City rebounded from their worst offensive showing in the postseason in Game 4 with a big offensive showing in Game 5. As a result, the Thunder own a 3-2 series advantage and look to return to the NBA Finals. In Game 5, Oklahoma City struggled early but rallied to take a two-point lead after the opening quarter. The Thunder opened the second quarter with a 10-3 run to take an eight-point advantage. They led the rest of the way to earn the victory. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced Oklahoma City with 32 points and nine assists in the win.
This postseason, the Thunder are 2nd in the league in scoring offense as they average 118.4 points per game. Oklahoma City is 6th in rebounding with 42 boards per contest on the year. They are 2nd in assists with 26.4 dimes a night. The Thunder are 7th in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 107.5 points a night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with 28 points, three rebounds and 8.2 assists per contest. The Thunder look to Chet Holmgren (16.2 points, 8.3 rebounds) and Jalen Williams (17.8 points, four rebounds, 3.3 assists) as secondary options.
Oklahoma City is 2nd in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 48% from the floor as a team in the playoffs. The Thunder are 2nd by hitting 13.8 threes per game. They stand 3rd in three-point shooting by hitting 37.6% of their attempts from beyond the arc. They are stellar at the free throw line on the year as they rank 1st by shooting 85.1% as a team at the stripe.
Key Injury Report for Thunder:
- Forward Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable.
- Guard Ajay Mitchell (calf) is out.
Spurs Looking to Force Game 7
San Antonio started strong again in Game 5 but, much like Game 3, failed to maintain their early momentum. They now find themselves in a situation where a loss in either of the next two games ends their season. In Game 5, San Antonio led by eight midway through the first quarter but trailed by two at the end of the stanza. The Spurs tied the game early in the second quarter but quickly gave up 10 of the next 11 points. They never got even again and ended up falling. Stephon Castle led the way for San Antonio with 24 points, five rebounds and six assists in the loss.
In the postseason, the Spurs are 3rd in the league in scoring offense as they average 115.4 points per game on the year. San Antonio is 1st in rebounding by grabbing 47.4 boards a night. They are 4th in the league in assists by handing out 25.1 dimes per contest. The Spurs are 6th in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 106 points per game. Victor Wembanyama is leading the team with 22.9 points plus 11.1 rebounds and 3.7 blocks this postseason. De’Aaron Fox (17.4 points, 5.9 assists) and Stephon Castle (19.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 6.6 assists) provide additional firepower
San Antonio is 4th in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47% from the floor on the year. The Spurs are 5th in threes per game as they connect on 12.5 triples a night. They are 4th in three-point percentage by shooting 36% from beyond the arc. San Antonio has been slightly above average at the charity stripe, ranking 3rd in the league by converting 80.2% of their attempts.
Key Injury Report for Spurs:
- No Key Injuries
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction
Oklahoma City picked up the win in a critical Game 5 situation, giving them two shots at the one win they need to advance. It also restored home court advantage for the Thunder, who persevered slow starts in Games 3 and 5 to earn wins. Mitchell is out again here while Williams again carries the questionable tag. That might solely be for show as it seems unlikely that he’ll suit up. San Antonio needs a better showing from Wembanyama, who scored 20 points but went just four of 15 from the floor. The Spurs are the one team best suited to push the Thunder to the limit. Based on what we’ve seen in the series, expect just that to happen.
Our Prediction: Spurs -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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