NBA Finals MVP Odds Shift Dramatically After Spurs’ Game 3 Victory

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Written By Nick Crain | Published at June 9, 2026
Jun 8, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) shoots the ball against San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5), forward Victor Wembanyama (1) and guard De'Aaron Fox (4) during game three of the 2026 NBA Finals in the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The San Antonio Spurs won Game 3 of the NBA Finals, and in the process, turned what was beginning to look like a runaway by the New York Knicks into a very real series.

New York still holds a 2-1 series lead, but the outlook of the Finals has changed dramatically. A Spurs victory in Game 4 would knot the series at two games apiece with the matchup shifting back to San Antonio for Game 5. Suddenly, the Spurs would have all of the momentum and a home game with an opportunity to take control of the series after trailing 0-2 just days ago.

In the meantime, Game 3 had a major impact on NBA Finals MVP odds.

Entering Game 3, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns had emerged as the two clear frontrunners for the award. With the Knicks holding a 2-0 series lead, it appeared likely that NBA Finals MVP would come from New York, and Towns had gained significant momentum thanks to his strong performances in the first two games.

That changed quickly.

Towns wasn’t nearly as impactful in Game 3 as he was earlier in the series, while Wembanyama delivered a dominant performance and helped lead the Spurs to their first victory of the Finals. As a result, Wembanyama has surged back into the conversation and is now comfortably in second place behind Brunson.

The race has effectively shifted from Brunson versus Towns to Brunson versus Wembanyama.

At +105 and +165, respectively, the odds suggest there are really only two realistic candidates left in the race. Outside of an injury or some other unexpected development, oddsmakers are making it pretty clear that this award is likely headed to one of the two superstars leading their respective teams.

In many ways, the Finals MVP market has become a direct reflection of the series itself.

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If the Knicks ultimately win the NBA championship, Brunson is overwhelmingly likely to be the player accepting the Finals MVP trophy. He’s been the face of New York’s playoff run from the beginning and remains the engine that drives the Knicks’ offense.

On the other side, if the Spurs complete the comeback and win the series, Wembanyama would almost certainly be the choice. The Spurs’ entire championship path runs through their superstar, and his Game 3 performance served as a reminder of why many people consider him one of the best players in the world.

Because of that, betting on Finals MVP at this point is becoming increasingly similar to simply betting on who you think will win the series.

The gap between the top two candidates and everyone else is significant.

OG Anunoby remains on the board at +4000, while Stephon Castle sits at +8000. De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are even further back at +17500. While all four players are capable of making an impact, it would likely take something fairly unorthodox for any of them to overtake Brunson or Wembanyama.

That’s especially true on the Spurs’ side. Castle, Fox and Harper are all longshots because oddsmakers clearly view Wembanyama as San Antonio’s unquestioned MVP candidate. If the Spurs win the championship, sportsbooks are essentially betting that Wembanyama will be the biggest reason why.

Ultimately, the betting market is telling a very clear story after three games. The Knicks still control the series, but the Spurs have brought themselves back into the fight. As a result, Finals MVP has become a two-man race between Brunson and Wembanyama.

Game 4 now looms as one of the most important contests of the entire season. If New York wins, Brunson will likely strengthen his grip on the award. If San Antonio wins and ties the series, expect Wembanyama’s odds to continue climbing, and even be the new favorite, as the Finals head back to San Antonio.

All Odds as of 11:59 p.m. ET on June 8

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