NBA Christmas Day Predictions, Opening Odds for 2026: Spurs-Knicks Clash Highlights Slate
The big games of the NBA schedule were released by the league last week, and that includes what portends to be an action-packed slate on Christmas Day. That’s more important than ever for drawing eyeballs to the product, as the NFL has started showcasing games in standalone slots as well.
As it stands, there are five games on the docket for Christmas Day on the hardwood. With that said, let’s take a quick look at the matchups and give our best early NBA Christmas Day predictions for each of the five contests on the slate. All odds were courtesy of DraftKings.
Spurs vs. Knicks (12 p.m. ET)
What better way to kick off the slate than having a rematch of the NBA Finals? The Knicks managed to take advantage of the Spurs' late-game miscues several times in the series. As a result, the franchise won its first NBA championship since 1973. New York returns pretty much the same squad as far as key contributors as they had in June. The big change is Andre Drummond replacing Mitchell Robinson, who signed with Boston.
San Antonio beefed up their wing depth by getting Tobias Harris as a free agent from Detroit. That was their biggest move, as their other deals were re-signing talent they already had on the roster. Victor Wembanyama is still a near-impossible matchup for any team to contend with on the floor. In addition, he learned from his late-game miscues in the Finals. Baptism by fire is the best way to learn at this level. It’s safe to say that the Spurs learn from those issues and earn the win here in front of a national audience.
Our Pick – Spurs -1.5 (-106)
Heat vs. Celtics (2:30 p.m. ET)
Talk about two teams that are going to be vastly different than when we last saw them. Miami missed the playoffs and then swung a massive deal to land Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis from Milwaukee in a blockbuster move. However, the trade cost them Tyler Herro, Kel’El Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round picks, a second-round selection, and a pick swap. Erik Spoelstra faces an uphill climb trying to rebuild the rotation around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. It’s going to be interesting for the Heat.
Boston dealt away Jaylen Brown in a deal that seemed to make little sense on the court. In exchange, they acquired Paul George, who dealt with injury issues and a suspension this past season. In addition, he’s 36 years old and has played more than 60 games in just one of the last seven seasons. Boston has the better depth going for them, though, and that might be enough to give them the upper hand. That’s especially true if Jayson Tatum avoids the injury bug.
Our Pick – Celtics -6.5 (-105)
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Talk about a team that changed things around in the offseason. The 76ers loaded up on talent in the offseason. Added in the mix were Jaylen Brown, Dean Wade, Anfernee Simons, and LeBron James. That gives the 76ers a starting five with Brown, James, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, and Joel Embiid, provided they’re all healthy. Now, they lost Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Andre Drummond in free agency. However, it’s safe to say that the 76ers are one of the favorites in the Eastern Conference this season, IF they stay healthy.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, has rebuilding to do. They lost James, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, and Marcus Smart in free agency. The Lakers picked up Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton, Kevon Looney, Matisse Thybulle, and Ziaire Williams in free agency. However, most of those were cheap pickups because of cap restraints. The Lakers also mortgaged a chunk of the future to acquire big man Walker Kessler from Utah. Los Angeles still has Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves leading the way. The problem is they don’t have the firepower to match up with the 76ers, who win convincingly here.
Our Pick – 76ers -108
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A pair of Northwest Division teams and squads that look to battle the Spurs for Western Conference supremacy take the floor here. Oklahoma City dealt away Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Lu Dort to get under the second apron. They drafted Aday Mara to provide depth in the frontcourt alongside Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. In addition, they still have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two-time defending MVP. That’s something that can’t be understated.
Minnesota made a big move of their own as they acquired LaMelo Ball from the Hornets. That deal cost them Julius Randle and Naz Reid, taking a couple of proven wings out of the mix. How the Timberwolves rebuild their rotation around Ball, Anthony Edwards, and Rudy Gobert remains to be seen. Both teams fell to the Spurs in the Western Conference playoffs last season. Until we see how Minnesota fares without Randle and Reid, one has to be a bit concerned. Oklahoma City has plenty of talent, and that helps them earn the win.
Our Pick – Thunder -4.5 (-105)
Nuggets vs. Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET)
Denver was disappointing last season, going down meekly in the first round to a Timberwolves squad that was missing Anthony Edwards for the majority of the series. The Nuggets didn’t make much in the way of offseason moves. Their biggest signing was adding oft-injured Marvin Bagley III. Still, they have Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to carry the load on both ends of the floor. Meanwhile, Golden State missed the playoffs last year, falling in the play-in tournament. The Warriors are another year older and didn’t do much to improve. They tried to get involved in deals to land Antetokounmpo and James, but fell short. As a result, it’s an old roster trying to hope that they can wring one more run out of their group.
They simply don’t have the depth or the firepower to keep up with the Nuggets, even playing at home. Take Denver on the road in this contest to close out the night.
Our Pick – Nuggets -2.5 (-110)
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