Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans Odds, Spread and Prediction

The Toronto Raptors (36-28) travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans (21-45) at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA, on Wednesday, March 11, 2026. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET. This matchup features a Raptors team looking to regain momentum and a Pelicans squad aiming to continue their recent home success. Both teams present interesting betting angles in moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

Team form and recent performances

Toronto enters this contest on a mixed note, having lost five of their last seven games. Their most recent loss came in a 113-99 defeat to the Houston Rockets, where RJ Barrett scored 25 points and Scottie Barnes added 24. Despite some bright spots in the third quarter, Toronto struggled in the final period, scoring only 16 points. The Raptors have also faced injury issues, with AJ Lawson, Jakob Poeltl, and Trayce Jackson-Davis ruled out. These absences affect depth and interior defense, making rotations tougher on the road.

New Orleans, on the other hand, has been performing better recently, winning six of their last nine games. The Pelicans dominated the Wizards 138-118, led by Trey Murphy III's 24 points and Saddiq Bey's double-double of 23 points and 10 rebounds. Zion Williamson added 20 points on 75% shooting, demonstrating the Pelicans' ability to score efficiently at home. While New Orleans still struggles defensively, their offensive firepower and recent rhythm make them a threat against Toronto.

Key players to watch

• Toronto Raptors: RJ Barrett continues to carry the Raptors offensively. His efficiency from the floor and ability to contribute in rebounds and assists make him crucial. Scottie Barnes provides secondary scoring and versatile defense, while Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet add depth and experience to keep Toronto competitive.
• New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Murphy III has been a consistent scoring option, while Zion Williamson provides inside presence and athleticism. Saddiq Bey's rebounding and scoring efficiency, combined with Dejounte Murray's playmaking, give New Orleans multiple ways to stay in the game. Monitoring how these players perform early could determine betting outcomes.

Betting analysis

Before diving into specific markets, it's important to consider how these teams match up overall. Toronto brings experience, depth, and defensive discipline, while New Orleans relies on home-court advantage and efficient scoring from key players. This context helps frame which betting markets may offer the best value for tonight's contest.

• Moneyline: Toronto is favored at -120, with New Orleans at +100. The Raptors' stronger record and ability to control pace make them the safer choice for a straight-up win. However, the Pelicans' home advantage and recent hot streak present potential value for bettors seeking the underdog. Toronto's depth may be affected by injuries, which slightly narrows their edge.
• Spread: The spread is close, with Toronto listed at -1.5 (-108) and New Orleans at +1.5 (-112). The Raptors have historically performed well against sub-.500 teams, but short rest and key injuries could make covering the spread more challenging. The Pelicans' home performance, combined with their offensive rhythm, makes them a viable option for bettors looking to cover the spread.
• Game total (over/under): The total is set at 232.5 points, with the over at -115 and under at -105. New Orleans plays at a faster pace, averaging 115.5 points per game, while Toronto's disciplined defense keeps opponents to 111.7 points per contest. If both teams shoot efficiently early, the over is possible. However, Toronto's ability to force turnovers and control pace could limit scoring opportunities, making the under also a reasonable consideration depending on first-half performance.

Betting angle and prediction

Toronto's combination of experience, balance, and defensive efficiency gives them an edge, but New Orleans' home court and scoring talent cannot be ignored. For bettors, the moneyline favors Toronto as the safer pick, while the Pelicans present value on the spread. The total points market requires watching early game flow and shooting percentages, as momentum swings could push scoring higher.

Given recent trends, injuries, and team performance, Toronto is predicted to win, but New Orleans should keep it competitive, especially in the first half. Betting on the Pelicans to cover the spread could provide the best balance between risk and reward in this matchup. Check the latest odds and line movement for this matchup at thelines.com before placing your bets.