Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies Picks and Predictions - March 12th 2026
8:00pm
Dallas Mavericks (21-44) make the trip to at FedExForum to meet Memphis Grizzlies (23-41) on Friday, March 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM CT. Mavericks carry a 5.5-point spread, with 238.5 posted on the total. The total will likely track whichever team gets to its preferred speed.
Recent combined scoring sits around 226.1 points versus a posted total of 238.5. That helps frame whether the posted number is asking for more than recent games have delivered. The rest of the article keeps the focus on what matters to bettors: the side, the total, and the game details that can move either one, and if you are shopping prices across operators, our NBA sportsbooks guide gives you a quick way to compare your options.
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines
Dallas Mavericks enters this spot with a clean read on form: last-five ATS: 1-4-0, plus supporting context in average margin: -90. If you want a timely market check, the away hub at Dallas Mavericks betting odds is a solid place to start.
Home form often reads cleaner than the noise, and for Memphis Grizzlies the key markers are last-five over-under: 4-1-0 with a useful add-on in last-five ATS: 3-2-0. If you are checking the home side close to tip, Memphis Grizzlies betting odds is the best spot to keep the board current.
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies Series History and Last Meeting
The last meeting provides a clear reference point: Grizzlies won 132-97, a 35 margin. Use the series rows below to see how that result lands into the larger head-to-head profile.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Last meeting score | 132-97 |
| Last meeting winner | Grizzlies |
| Last meeting margin | 35 |
| Side | Meetings | Wins | Losses | Average margin | Total points | ATS record | Over/Under record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away | 3 | 2 | 1 | -7.6 | 220.8 | 0-3-0 | 0-3-0 |
| Home | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.6 | 220.8 | 3-0-0 | 0-3-0 |
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With the days-since line even at 2 vs 2, the summary tilts to the mileage rows. Prior-opponent strength is higher for Memphis Grizzlies (53 vs 52.3), hinting at a stronger spot and a higher threshold for carryover.
With last-7 games even (3 vs 3), schedule density is not a clear driver without help from travel. Memphis Grizzlies has logged more immediate travel since the last game (877.9 vs 335.9), and that toll often shows as a slow start or thin third quarter. Dallas Mavericks leads the last-7 mileage line (4191.8 vs 2710.25), and that cumulative travel burden plays bigger when rest is thinner.
| Metric | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Days since last game | 2 | 2 |
| Rest advantage vs opponent | 0 | 0 |
| Travel miles since last game | 335.9 | 877.9 |
| Games in last 7 days | 3 | 3 |
| Time zone changes | 0 | 1 |
| Miles travelled last 7 days | 4191.8 | 2710.25 |
| Schedule strength | 41.1 | 42 |
| Remaining schedule strength | 53.5 | 56.4 |
| Previous opponent strength (win %) | 52.3 | 53 |
| Next opponent strength (win %) | 35.9 | 32.3 |
Season Profile Comparison: Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies
Instead of one big grid, the profile is grouped into four categories with a quick read for each. The important part is whether the two key stats agree—or whether the matchup is a trade between different ways to win.
Record & Scoring
Memphis Grizzlies leads both win percentage (36.7) and point margin (-2.4), a strong signal that the scoring baseline is on their side. If Dallas Mavericks is going to swing this category, it usually needs a pace spike or a shooting night that compresses the margin fast.
| Metric | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W-L) | 21-44 | 23-41 |
| Win Percentage | 22.6 | 36.7 |
| Points For | 113 | 115.9 |
| Points Against | 117.8 | 118.3 |
| Points Margin | -4.9 | -2.4 |
Efficiency
Memphis Grizzlies owns the edge in shooting efficiency (111.1) and field goal efficiency (53.7), which is a strong indicator of cleaner scoring. If Dallas Mavericks can’t contest without fouling or giving up clean looks, this category tends to stay home-leaning.
| Metric | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Field Goal % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Three-Point % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Shooting Efficiency | 106.7 | 111.1 |
| Field Goal Efficiency | 52.8 | 53.7 |
| Free Throw Rate | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Three-Point Rate | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Free Throw % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Tempo, Ratings & Turnovers
Memphis Grizzlies owns the net rating edge (-2.6), while Dallas Mavericks has the ball-security edge (14.3), so this category becomes a trade. In a one-game sample, turnovers can matter more than ratings if they turn into easy points going the other way.
| Metric | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 104 | 104.1 |
| Net Rating | -4.9 | -2.6 |
| Offensive Rating | 107.7 | 110.8 |
| Defensive Rating | 112.6 | 113.5 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 14.3 | 14.8 |
Rebounding, Ball Movement & Disruption
Memphis Grizzlies leads the two extra-possession drivers: offensive rebounds (0.3 vs 0.2) and steals (8.7 vs 7.3). If that shows up, Memphis Grizzlies can win the attempt count even without a major shooting edge.
| Metric | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Rebounds Per Game | 44.7 | 43.8 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Assists Per Game | 24.9 | 28.7 |
| Assist Rate | 59.7 | 68.6 |
| Steals Per Game | 7.3 | 8.7 |
| Blocks Per Game | 5.2 | 5.1 |
For a quick look, see NBA point spreads and compare today’s numbers. A clean refresh can reveal whether the spread is drifting.
DAL at MEM ATS and Over Under Trends
ATS win% reads Dallas Mavericks at 40% and Memphis Grizzlies at 50%. Over % comes in at Dallas Mavericks 40% and Memphis Grizzlies 50%. If this game tightens late, the better ATS rate is the one more likely to travel with the margin.
| Metric | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| ATS W-L-P | 28-37-0 | 30-34-0 |
| ATS Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Home ATS Wins | 17 | 14 |
| Away ATS Wins | 11 | 16 |
| ATS as Favorite | 7-13-0 | 12-9-0 |
| ATS as Underdog | 21-24-0 | 18-25-0 |
| Over Wins | 28 | 32 |
| Under Wins | 37 | 32 |
| Over % | 40% | 50% |
DAL at MEM Key Players by Usage%: Top 3 Per Team
The top usage leader in this matchup is Ty Jerome (Memphis Grizzlies), and the table below links that workload to production and efficiency. Their brief profile: Min 22, Usage% 33.5, 20 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.6 APG, TS% 63.4, eFG% 57.9, +/- -2.1, and TO/G 1.8.
Dallas Mavericks leans on D'Angelo Russell (26.2), Cooper Flagg (25.8), and Brandon Williams (25.6), and Memphis Grizzlies leans on Ty Jerome (33.5), Ja Morant (32.5), and Jaren Jackson Jr. (25.7), and this readout shows the first three options. A more concentrated top line usually means heavier on-ball responsibility for the primary option, while a balanced top three can signal more shared creation and easier rotation coverage if one piece is limited.
For a quick peek at the award market, visit the current MVP board. Start with our NBA MVP race odds and scan the names.
| Team | Player | Min | Usage% | PPG | RPG | APG | TS% | eFG% | +/- | TO/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | D'Angelo Russell | 19 | 26.2 | 10.2 | 2.3 | 4 | 51.1 | 47.6 | -1.6 | 1.9 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Cooper Flagg | 34 | 25.8 | 20.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 54.6 | 50.2 | -3.8 | 2.2 |
| Dallas Mavericks | Brandon Williams | 22 | 25.6 | 13.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 56.8 | 50.4 | -1 | 1.9 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Ty Jerome | 22 | 33.5 | 20 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 63.4 | 57.9 | -2.1 | 1.8 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Ja Morant | 28 | 32.5 | 19.4 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 52.1 | 44.1 | -2.5 | 3.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Jaren Jackson Jr. | 31 | 25.7 | 19.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 57.4 | 53.4 | -2.5 | 2.2 |
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- Game script (pace): Memphis Grizzlies can try to push the pace, but Dallas Mavericks is more comfortable if it can slow trips into half-court reads. The early rhythm signal usually tracks the total direction.
- Efficiency edge (side): Over the larger sample, it leans to Memphis Grizzlies when possessions remain cleaner and the glass is controlled. Those extra chances can swing the margin.
- Late filters (availability + market): Availability and schedule context are the final filter, and they can change who handles closing possessions and what shots show up late. If the market moves, take it as a prompt to confirm the inputs instead of forcing the first read.
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