2024 NBA Sportsbook Mock Draft: Top-10 Lottery Picks Based On Betting Odds

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NBA Draft Odds

No one could’ve scripted more of a 180-degree turn from the 2023 NBA Draft to the one we’ll witness on Wednesday. Last year, NBA draft odds pegged the San Antonio Spurs as a lock to draft Victor Wembanyama, the eventual NBA Rookie of the Year, with the first pick. This time, the Atlanta Hawks are under siege to pinpoint the best prospect in a weaker draft class while determining the murky future of three-time All-Star Trae Young, including the $138 million left on his contract.

Let’s assemble an NBA mock draft with betting odds from Caesars Sportsbook, among other operators. These selections incorporate the highest implied probability per pick for available markets. You’ll even find the latest Bronny James odds.

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2024 NBA Mock Draft: By The Odds

1. Atlanta Hawks: Zaccharie Risacher (-475, 82.6% Implied Probability)

After recently working out for the Hawks, Risacher’s odds to go No. 1 overall were hit hard over the last 24 hours. Scouts view the French forward as a 3-and-D archetype who fits whether or not Young sticks around. This Wednesday is positioned to mark the fourth time in the modern NBA draft era (since 1966) that an international prospect has been selected with the top pick.

Nevertheless, bettors have continued to take interest in UConn product Donovan Clingan, whose odds were initially as high as +1200.

2. Washington Wizards: Alexandre Sarr (-1500, 93.8% Implied Probability)

Suppose the market’s liking toward Risacher comes to fruition. In that case, Sarr will presumably go off the board at pick No. 2. Wizards general manager Will Dawkins stems from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s upper management, where positional size was highly valued. In Dawkins’ tenure, the Thunder nabbed agile 7-footer Chet Holmgren with the same selection in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Assuming Sarr continues his evolution, his 7-foot frame and elite athleticism fit the mold of Dawkins’ preferred prospect.

3. Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard (-175, 63.6% Implied Probability)

In Sheppard’s lone season at Kentucky, he delivered an absurd 51.2% 3-point clip, the top-rated efficiency in the country. Although Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, and Cam Whitmore can get hot from deep, the Rockets’ perimeter shooting is otherwise lacking.

With Fred VanVleet inked for the foreseeable future, Sheppard’s developmental timeline wouldn’t be rushed. His playmaking skillset also fits well with Alperen Sengun, the No. 16 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, especially in dribble handoff action.

4. San Antonio Spurs: Stephon Castle (-210, 67.7% Implied Probability)

According to multiple reports, Castle’s connection to the Spurs has strengthened lately, insinuating that the 6-foot-6 Connecticut product will likely play with Wembanyama.

Castle often defended the opponent’s best player, like Alabama’s Mark Sears in the Final Four or Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman when the Big East rivals squared off. While Castle’s jumper was inconsistent throughout his lone season with the Huskies, his postseason-high 21-point performance in the Final Four and 15-point outing in the national championship game exhibited his scoring prowess in transition — on the biggest stage.

5. Detroit Pistons: Matas Buzelis (-140, 58.3% Implied Probability)

Like Risacher, Buzelis’ price tag borders odds-on territory, with notable mock drafts citing him as the Pistons’ potential pick. Granted, they have also been linked to trading the pick to Memphis.

But let’s say a trade isn’t in the cards. The 6-foot-8 stretch four resembles similar pieces that incoming “CEO” Matthew Langdon targeted (and succeeded with) in his run as general manager with the New Orleans Pelicans. Unless Langdon & Co. eye Cody Williams’ upside, who showed flashes of his physical profile in small doses at Colorado, Buzelis is a worthy selection among NBA draft odds.

6. Charlotte Hornets: Dalton Knecht (-110, 52.4% Implied Probability)

Over the last decade, just a sprinkle of 23-year-old rookies have been taken in the NBA draft lottery: Davion Mitchell, Cam Johnson, Denzel Valentine, and Doug McDermott.

Knecht, 23, developed into a lottery prospect by scoring 21.7 points per game while connecting on a blistering 39.7% of his triples during his senior campaign in Knoxville, Tenn. Remember that he transferred from Northern Colorado. His high-level jumper, which helped lead the Vols to their second Elite Eight in program history, was among college basketball’s biggest surprises compared to preseason expectations.

If the Hornets decide against picking him, Sheppard or Castle may have become unexpectedly available.

Another Knecht Prop: Under 7.5 Draft Position (-215 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

7. Portland Trailblazers: Cody Williams (+400, 20% Implied Probability)

Here come the less determined scenarios. The betting market does not anticipate Williams slipping to the Thunder at No. 12, pairing him with his older brother, Jalen. Despite an injury-plagued freshman season, Williams would gift Portland much-needed length on the wing to go along with Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara.

However, Clingan isn’t projected to fall past this pick in most mock drafts. That notion makes him an intriguing wager in this market.

8. San Antonio Spurs: Devin Carter (+300, 25% Implied Probability)

After betting on Carter’s top-10 pick odds during the NBA Finals, I’m hopeful the market is correct with this assertion.

Carter appears as NBA-ready as they come, grading out as one of the best athletes ever tested at the combine. He is an upper-echelon point-of-attack defender, consistently displaying his intelligence off the ball by blowing up passes on the fly. Even though he’s a smaller guard, his defensive resume illustrates that of a dominant rim protector.

Despite frequently taking difficult shots, he drilled 37.7% of his 3-pointers in his junior season. The hope is that Carter would ultimately settle into Tre Jones’ starting role.

If Carter isn’t bound for San Antonio, there are rumblings that he may head to Miami or Los Angeles. The Heat and Lakers are reportedly interested in acquiring the ninth overall pick. As a result, Carter’s price tag shortened in the subsequent market.

Another Carter Prop: Top-10 Pick (-230 at DraftKings; as high as -400 elsewhere)

9. Memphis Grizzlies: Ron Holland (+650, 13.3% Implied Probability)

Per the table below, Carter is also favored for this spot in the NBA draft. The connection is viable since Anthony Carter, Devin’s father, is an assistant coach with the Grizzlies. But for the sake of exploration, the 18-year-old Holland possesses plenty of intrigue after averaging 20.6 points in 14 games with G League Ignite.

The 6-foot-8 forward would presumably split his time between the G League and Memphis until proving he’s ready for a bigger workload at the next level.

10. Utah Jazz: Nikola Topic (+550, 15.4% Implied Probability)

Not only did Topic suffer a torn ACL in January, but he also provided discouraging measurements at the NBA draft combine, including a negative wingspan. Still, there are many positives, especially for a pass-first guard with supreme vision who can score in a bevy of ways.

Utah could use another lead guard, and Topic more than fits the bill.

Hoosier state conundrum: edey or ware?

You may have noticed that the two-time Wooden Award winner is listed above. Some mock drafts view him as being in play for Memphis.

In recent days, Edey’s top-10 odds have shrunk from as high as +1000 to the +250 range.

Moreover, DraftKings has Edey (-320) favored to be drafted before Kel’el Ware (+230). They met twice in their final collegiate season. Edey dictated both matchups in the paint, with the Boilermakers rolling over the arch-rival Hoosiers.

You can sift through their top-20 NBA draft odds below. Edey was the rightful favorite before being taken off the board. Colorado product Tristan da Silva has taken his place.

Top-20 draft odds
Tristan da Silva
Carlton carrington
Jared McCain
Ja’Kobe Walter
Johnny Furphy
KyShawn George
Kel’el Ware
Yves Missi
Last Updated on 06.26.2024

family affair: Will Bronny follow Lebron?

Following the NBA draft combine, Bronny James’ draft position prop was O/U 39.5 at certain shops. As of Wednesday at Caesars, it’s up to 54.5 — heavily juiced to the over.

What do you know? The Lakers are currently stationed at pick No. 55. They’re also favored to select James (-145) over the Suns (+650) and Mavericks (+750). Those odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bronny’s father, LeBron James, is expected to ink a three-year max contract with the team soon.

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