Cavs Odds Worth Betting For Deep NBA Postseason Run?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on April 21, 2023
Cavs Odds

With NBA playoffs odds underway, one notion has already come to fruition. Just like what transpired in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, there’s more parity across the league than in recent memory. Hence, betting longshot futures in either conference may be justifiable. Let’s explore whether or not Cavs odds to win the East is a valuable wager with that in mind.

Use the table below to shop for the best prices on NBA futures odds, and click on any of them to place a bet.

Eastern Conference Futures

Market Evaluation

Entering the NBA postseason, Cleveland Cavaliers odds to win the East were priced around +1600. That’s equivalent to an implied probability of 5.88%. Following their loss in Game 1 to the New York Knicks, that number vaulted as high as +2500. I wound up firing at +2400 last night, which you can find in free sports betting Discord channel — with more than 4,300 members.

As of Friday, the best odds available are — good for a 3.85% implied probability. Admittedly, I’m not as attuned to NBA projections as I am with “unprofessional” hoops (as Mo Nowwarah would say). However, I show a slight edge at the current number. For context, the series is tied at one, following Cleveland’s two-way barrage on Tuesday evening.

Cavs Roster Construction

J. B. Bickerstaff’s crew manufactured the top-rated defensive efficiency (1.11 points allowed per possession) in the regular season. The Cavs’ half-court defense is particularly dominant, surrendering a mere 0.94 PPP. That should be the difference in the rest of their first-round series, as long as the Knicks aren’t overly assertive in transition.

Their rim protection — guided by both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — is the driving force behind it. Mobley even finished behind Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brook Lopez in the 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting. The USC product notched a block rate in the 76th percentile.

Then, there’s the Donovan Mitchell factor. Not only is Mitchell one of the premier scorers in the dance, historically speaking, but his overall playmaking prowess also makes these odds even more intriguing to back. That’s because the Cavs showcase another versatile on/off-ball threat via the blossoming Darius Garland.

The one concern is the Cavs’ depth, especially with the disappearance of Isaac Okoro down the stretch. Bickerstaff has been forced into a defacto seven-man rotation, thanks to Okoro costing Cleveland at both ends.

These advanced stats are via Cleaning The Glass.

Path For Cavs Odds

If Cleveland advances to the Eastern Conference semifinals, it would likely face the Milwaukee Bucks. While they opened the playoffs as the favorite to win the title (+230), that figure has been adjusted after their Game 1 loss to the Miami Heat.

The aforementioned Nuwwarah already noted that their first-round series price is valuable as a result. Nevertheless, two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who suffered a lower back contusion on Sunday, could very well be hampered moving forward.

Moreover, the Cavs possess the length — albeit their 20th-ranked defensive rebounding percentage — to match up with Antetokoumpo and the rest of the Bucks’ frontcourt.

From there, the most ideal Cavs odds scenario would be a conference finals duel with the Philadelphia 76ers. Similar to a potential Milwaukee series, Cleveland’s bigs are capable of somewhat hindering Joel Embiid’s efficiency. For that to occur, Philly must upend the Boston Celtics in the second round — should that scenario occur. Either way, we’ll evaluate our positioning down the line.

Cavs at Knicks: Game 3 Spread, Moneyline, Total

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