A few NBA player props I’m looking at for Tuesday night include games with the Hawks vs. Cavaliers and Grizzlies vs. Magic. Clint Capela and the Atlanta Hawks play host to Cleveland at 7:30 p.m. EDT / 4:30 p.m. PDT. It’s expected to be a close one as oddsmakers have the spread hovering around a pick ’em with a point total set at . Elsewhere, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the red-hot Memphis Grizzlies are home against the Orlando Magic at 8 p.m. EDT / 7 p.m. CDT. The Grizzlies are favorites in the game, which features a point total set at . Let’s jump into both games and their player props for Tuesday night.
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Josh Lander is 16-5 and up 10+ units betting NBA player props over the last three weeks. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Cavaliers At Hawks Player Props
Below are the available player props for the game between the Cavaliers and Hawks. Cleveland’s starting center Jarrett Allen is questionable to play for the Cavs. Keep an eye on his availability for tonight’s game as he will be a key factor to limiting Clint Capela if he’s able to play.
Clint Capela Under 23.5 Points and Rebounds
Here are Capela’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Cavaliers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Points and Rebounds: /
We should have a close, high-scoring game on our hands in Atlanta tonight. The Hawks have been putting up a ton of points at home since head coach Quin Snyder took over 15 games ago and the Cavs tend to go over on the road.
Atlanta is 5-4 to the over since the coaching change, but even the four games that went under averaged 241 points.
Clint Capela’s minutes have taken a downward turn during these fast-paced affairs for the Hawks, averaging just 26 minutes per game since Snyder’s arrival. That’s just one of the reasons I feel confident the veteran big man is going under his points and rebounds combo prop on Tuesday night.
Cleveland’s Interior Presence
Cleveland has been the most difficult defense for big men to score on all season long, limiting opposing centers to the fewest points per game. It also keeps them from controlling the glass, allowing the fewest boards to the position.
In general teams have found it difficult to collect rebounds against the Cavs. They allow the fewest per game on the road to opponents and the second-fewest points off of offensive rebounds and put-backs.
Capela is way less effective when he’s unable to use offensive rebounds as a means to score. That’s part of the reason he’s struggled so much against this Cavs defense, averaging just 7.6 points and 9.0 rebounds per game in the teams’ last five meetings.
Over those five games, he’s only hit this prop once and neither Jarrett Allen nor Evan Mobley played when he went over.
On the season, Capela scores 90% of his points in the paint, and a third of them off of second-chance opportunities. Good luck scoring that way against a Cleveland defense allowing the third-fewest points in the paint this season.
Magic At Grizzlies Player Props
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 21.5 Points
Here are Jackson Jr.’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Magic:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Memphis will be without its star point guard, Ja Morant when Orlando comes to town on Tuesday night. The Grizzlies are 10-8 without Morant this season. Respectable, but not the incredible 20-5 record they recorded without him last season.
While Morant’s absences have meant a huge boost in stats for his backup, Tyus Jones, the Magic are one of the best in the league at limiting point guards this season.
Orlando has struggled, however, against opposing power forwards. Over the last seven games, the Magic have allowed the sixth-most points to the position, which happens to be occupied by the Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr.
That’s why, I’m eyeing the Over on Jaren Jackson Jr.’s points prop on Tuesday.
Avoiding Foul Trouble
Staying on the floor is the key to Jackson Jr. hitting his prop against Orlando, and avoiding foul trouble is key to him staying on the floor. In the month of March, he’s done a much better job of limiting his fouls, allowing him to soak up more than 31 minutes per game.
He’s also done a great job staying on the floor against the Magic. In his last three meetings with Orlando, he’s putting up 21.7 points per game with a steady 27.6% usage rate in just over 28 minutes. In one of those, Jackson Jr. was only needed for 25 minutes after the Grizzlies built a massive lead en route to a blowout win.
If you extrapolate his scoring totals to 36 minutes per contest, they balloon to 26 points a game.
Morant has also participated in all three of those matchups with Orlando, playing extremely well himself with a 34% usage rate. Without Morant and the 20 shot attempts he’s averaged versus Orlando, we can expect JJJ to get an extra helping of looks at the basket.
Stepping Up Without Ja
JJJ has taken it upon himself to shoulder the offensive load left behind by Morant.
Over his last nine games played without Ja, Jackson Jr.’s scoring average is just above Tuesday night’s prop at 22.7 points per night. He’s hit the over in seven of those contests, averaging 31.5 minutes per game.
In the two games he went under 21 points, he only saw 28.5 minutes a night.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds
I can’t mention Jackson Jr.’s props without at least touching on his current position to win Defensive Player of the Year. At the moment, JJJ has odds to win the award, projecting him to finish as the runner-up behind the Milwaukee Bucks’ Brook Lopez.
The Grizzlies’ big man has had an incredible season turning away opposing shot attempts. In just 57 games, he’s blocked 174 shots, on top of 61 steals. That’s just 10 fewer blocks than Lopez as of March 28, and 25 more steals despite playing in 16 fewer games (57 games played for Jackson Jr. and 73 for Lopez).
However, it’s Jackson Jr.’s unavailability compared to Lopez’s consistent presence for Milwaukee that has him behind the ageless Bucks’ center with just eight or nine games left to play. It would take at least a handful of games with a minimum of four blocks for JJJ to overtake Lopez at this point.
That’s probably not worth the juice. Meanwhile, Lopez is currently .
Best of luck with your NBA player props tonight.
