Evan Mobley and the Cleveland Cavaliers are in Charlotte to play the Hornets for the second time in three days on Tuesday, March 14 at 7:00 p.m. EDT / 6:00 p.m. CDT. The Cavs are favorites in the game, which features a point total set at . Immanuel Quickley and the New York Knicks visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, March 14 at 10:00 p.m. EDT / 7:00 p.m. PDT. The Knicks are favorites in the game, which features a point total set at . Below, we’ll go over NBA player props for Tuesday night.
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Cavaliers At Hornets Player Props
Evan Mobley Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds
Here are Mobley’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Hornets:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Points + Rebounds: Over/Under /
For those of you who followed along yesterday, my first of two successful picks was an under on Bam Adebayo against a Utah Jazz defense that was one of the worst at defending opposing Centers until it started playing Walker Kessler. Let’s go ahead and use similar logic in this Cavs and Hornets game on Tuesday night to select Evan Mobley’s Unders.
I can understand why Mobley’s props are set so high in a matchup against the tanking Hornets who, on the season allow the most rebounds per game to opposing Centers and the fourth-most points. However, if you filter that down to the team’s last seven games, they improve dramatically in terms of points allowed to the position, jumping up to the eighth-fewest allowed.
It should also be noted, Mobley is usually listed as the Cavaliers’ Power Forward, but Jarrett Allen’s second-straight absence combined with the team’s lack of depth in the front court (it recently released veteran-big Kevin Love) forces Mobley to the “5.”
In eight games without Allen this season, Mobley averaged 15.8 points and 11.0 rebounds compared to the 16.0 points and 8.7 boards in 60 games alongside him. It actually makes perfect sense that his point totals don’t rise without Allen despite being the only big man on the floor for Cleveland as his usage rate only rises 1% in these situations. It’s difficult for anyone outside of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to shoot the ball when the two guards combine for a 56% usage rate, among the top-ten-highest combined rates for two teammates this season.
Simply put, these props are set too high for a player who averages well below them on the season regardless of who is on the floor with him. Even as Mobley has improved upon his season stats over his last 10 games, averaging 18 points and nine rebounds in 35 minutes, he’s still only gone over the total set for his points and rebounds combination prop / twice during that span.
Josh Lander is up more than 13 units betting NBA player props on the season with co-host Nate Weitzer on the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast. Give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy
Editor’s Note
Knicks At Trail Blazers
Immanuel Quickley Over 19.5 Points
Here are Immanuel Quickley’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Trail Blazers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
With Knicks’ starting Point Guard Jalen Brunson fully expected to sit out the team’s game in Portland versus the Trail Blazers on Tuesday night, we turn to his explosive backup, Immanuel Quickley.
I really like Quickley’s Overs in this scenario, his splits with and without Brunson this season are wildly different. In the eight games replacing the Knicks’ starting point guard this season, Quickley increased his scoring average by 10 points per game from 12 to 22 per contest. That’s also three points more than his prop tonight.
Quickley has made huge strides in his third year with the Knicks this season, especially since coach Tom Thibodeau started playing him more. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Quickley played just 22 minutes per game, averaging 9.4 points during that time. Since January 1, however, Quickley has seen his minutes jump up to 31 minutes and he’s rewarded the Knicks with 15.6 points per game, a significant six-point increase. In his last seven games, Quickley is up to 22 points per game, even with Brunson playing in three of those contests.
The Trail Blazers might be without Damian Lillard in this game as well, not that he would necessarily help slow down Quickley, whose fast-break pace and three-point shooting will pose a problem for most Trail Blazer defenders. Portland is 28th in defensive rating on the season, allowing teams to connect on 37% from deep and consistently failing to get back to stop the fast break.
