The NBA Play-In Tournament is here and I’m looking at a few NBA player props props from both the Timberwolves vs. Lakers and Heat vs. Hawks. First on the slate, Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat host Atlanta at 7:30 p.m. EDT. The Heat are favorites with a point total set at . Out west, Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves play the Lakers in Los Angeles at 10:00 p.m. EDT. in the other seven-vs.-eight matchup. Minnesota is a underdog in the game, which features a point total set at .
Let’s dive into why I like Bam to dime up against the Hawks and KAT to put up points on a good Lakers defense.
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Josh Lander is 29-10 and up 20+ units betting NBA player props over the last month. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Hawks At Heat
Below are the available NBA player props for the game between the Hawks and Heat.
Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 Assists (+142 FanDuel | 1u) / 5+ Assists (+310 DraftKings | .5u)
Here are Adebayo’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Hawks:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
The Heat are happy to welcome the Hawks to their home building for the first game of the 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament. Miami won the last seven games there when Atlanta came to town. The defensive combination of Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry limited Trae Young to just 19 points per game during that time.
Alternatively, Heat big man Bam Adebayo thrives against the Hawks, particularly as a distributor. We’re getting great juice on FanDuel for Bam to get four assists on Tuesday night, so I’m hitting the over.
Options For Bam
It should be mentioned that there are a few options for those interested in placing a wager on Bam’s assist prop. At a couple books, such as Caesars Sportsbook, offer Bam’s assist prop at 2.5, meaning he would only need three for the bet to cash. Those odds are all the way down to around -160, so I personally like the juice you’re getting at FanDuel for him to get four.
For the bold of heart, you can also get an alternate total at DraftKings Sportsbook for Bam to get five or more assists. If Bam comes through with at least five assists, that bet would cash you out with better than 3-1 on your money.
Considering Adebayo recorded five assists in five of his last seven games against the Hawks, I’m going to put a small amount on that.
Point Bam
At 6-foot-9, Adebayo doesn’t have the size or length to get his shot off around the rim against Atlanta’s starting center, Clint Capela. Capela stands at a healthy seven feet and led the Hawks to 70 paint points the last time these teams squared off in Miami. For context, the Memphis Grizzlies lead the NBA with 58 points in the paint per game.
As a result, Bam is forced to play further away from the basket on offense and act as more of a facilitator than a scorer.
Miami’s offense is predicated on athletic wings slashing to the hoop to either receive the ball and score at the rim, or open up the three point line for its shooters. Against Atlanta, Bam takes on the role of Point Center and occupies the space around the free throw line. When he gets the ball in that spot, he pulls Capela further from the basket, which opens up lanes for those slashing wings.
Bam has the option to pass to a cutting Jimmy Butler or find an open Tyler Herro standing behind the three point line. These are the types of situations that have led Bam to record at least four assists in six of his last seven games against the Hawks.
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Timberwolves At Lakers
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 23.5 Points (-105 DraftKings | 2u)
Here are Towns’ core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Lakers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
There are two schools of thought ahead of the Timberwolves’ clash with the Lakers for the seven seed on Tuesday night: Either Minnesota’s players will use the team’s recent internal drama to rally and play extra focus and intensity, or they’ll continue spiraling downward and out of the playoffs entirely.
I’m banking on the former for the Timberwolves, and especially for Karl-Anthony Towns. Lets confidently go with the over for his points prop against the Lakers.
Space To Play
Minnesota will be without starting center Rudy Gobert after the team suspended him at least one game for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson last Sunday. Minnesota was down eight at the half before head coach Chris Finch sent Gobert home for his behavior.
The part of the story getting lost in the whirlwind of theatrical details – the Timberwolves outscored the Pelicans 66-53 in the second half and won the game. Towns had 17 points and five boards in 15 second-half minutes without Gobert. He also shot 66% from the field and made all four of his three point attempts.
That has been the trend all year for Towns and the Timberwolves. In 530 minutes on the floor with both Towns and Gobert at the same time, Minnesota has a 106 offensive rating. Expand that out to a full season and it’s two points per 100 possessions worse than the worst offense in the NBA.
Beat LA, Beat AD
KAT has thoroughly enjoyed playing the Lakers in his career, especially when Gobert isn’t around. In two games against LA with Gobert this season, Towns put up 22 points per game. Not great, but still two more points than his season average with Rudy on the floor. In his previous four meetings with the Lakers, Towns averaged 29 points a night, going over Tuesday’s prop every time.
He also seems to amp himself up against his fellow Kentucky Wildcat, Anthony Davis. Davis was Kentucky’s all-world center just before Towns arrived and the two have maintained a healthy rivalry throughout their careers in the NBA.
Towns has averaged better than 26 points and 12 rebounds over his last seven matchups with AD. He also hit Tuesday’s points prop in six of those seven.
