NBA Player Props For TNT Games – Tuesday, Nov. 2

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 2, 2021 - Last Updated on November 8, 2021

The NBA season continues with two more national TV games tonight on TNT, Heat at Mavericks and Pelicans at Suns. Each week throughout the season, TheLines will look at some matchups for the televised slates and try to figure if there are any NBA player props worth a look.

NBA player props tool: Find the best odds

Heat At Mavericks Matchup And NBA Player Props

On paper, this looks like a solid matchup between two fringe title contenders who have both gotten off to nice starts this year. Look at the teams they’ve played and the advanced stats, though, and you see a mismatch.

Dallas has a bottom-five offense and a middling defense while Miami has the league’s best defense (by a mile) and a top-five offense. That despite Miami playing and beating a couple of title contenders while the Mavs got blasted by both good teams on their schedule.

The Mavs will be without Kristaps Porzingis but it’s anyone’s guess what that means. The team performed better with Luka Doncic and no Porzingis last season than when the two shared the court. Yet, the opposite was (barely) true the year before, per Cleaning The Glass. Porzingis has a disastrous -17.7 net rating this year.

Without Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr. saw his usage go up against the Kings. He served as the clear second banana in last year’s playoff loss to the Clippers. He may see some Jimmy Butler defense if PJ Tucker tackles the Doncic assignment, though.

Speaking of Butler, he has carried the Heat with an incredible level of performance. With Dallas down two big men — Maxi Kleber’s also out — they may play faster, which could bump Butler’s stats up a notch.

Jimmy Butler Props

 

Of course, Doncic will be the main focus of the Heat’s defensive strategy and matchups. Since Miami has multiple plus-defenders, he may look to get his stepback game cooking rather than venture into help defense. That could put the over on his threes in play.

Luka Doncic Props

 

And if he’s on the perimeter, he won’t be as big a factor on the glass, particularly with Miami gobbling up boards at a league-leading rate. Bam Adebayo could have a big day there, but he’s also questionable with a knee injury.

On the Miami side, Tyler Herro has been the early standout. He’s scorching the nets shooting career-bests from inside and beyond the arc, respectively. He has also found teammates at a career-best clip (4.5 assists per game, 24.3% AST%).

Tyler Herro Props

Pelicans At Suns Matchup And NBA Player Props

These teams match up pretty closely across the board in terms of advanced stats, with the Suns just a bit stronger in most of the categories.

Another key injury in this game creates uncertainty about who will take the court for Phoenix. Deandre Ayton suffered a leg contusion and exited the Saturday game against Cleveland.

If he sits, Javale McGee looks to be next man up with Frank Kaminsky backing him up.

That would appear to be great news for Jonas Valanciunas of the Pelicans. McGee plays undisciplined, foul-prone defense and Kaminsky probably just has no shot of guarding him. Valanciunas could feast here against the backup bigs.

Jonas Valanciunas Player Props

 

On the other hand, if Ayton plays, Valanciunas might have a tough night. Ayton gets tons of steals, doesn’t foul and vacuums up defensive rebounds at an 88% rate according to Cleaning The Glass.

Valanciunas is also a strong rebounder, so both players could neutralize the other’s edge on the boards. Potentially look to some unders there.

One player who has been jacking shots at kind of a staggering rate with Zion Williamson out has been Nickeil Alexander-Walker. After taking 10 shots per game, he’s chucking 15.4 per this year. They haven’t been going down (35.3%), but he’s bound to start scoring more than his 14.1 PPG if he keeps firing away at this rate.

Devin Booker’s efficiency has cratered as he just hasn’t made shots yet this year. He’s shooting at career lows both overall (41.6%) and from deep (28.6%). However, he still has a 98th percentile usage. Against a team that can’t stop anyone, make sure his scoring props don’t reflect his cold start, as that could end at any moment.

Devin Booker Player Props

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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