With MLB Opening Day on Thursday this week, we only have NBA on TNT props for two games on the slate: Celtics vs. Bucks and Pelicans vs. Nuggets. Al Horford and the Boston Celtics tip-off in Milwaukee against the Bucks at 7:30 p.m. EDT / 4:30 p.m. PDT on TNT. The Celtics are underdogs with a point total set at . Also on national TV, Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets welcome the New Orleans Pelicans at 7 p.m. MDT / 9 p.m. EDT. The Nuggets are favorites in the game, which features a point total set at .
Both matchups have major playoff implications. Let’s look at why I like these players to have solid performances on Thursday. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA on TNT props on your favorite players.
Josh Lander is 18-7 and up 10+ units betting NBA player props over the last three weeks. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.Editor’s Note
NBA on TNT Props: Celtics At Bucks
Below are the available player props for the game between the Celtics and Bucks. Two of Boston’s rotational big men are questionable to play, center Rob Williams III and forward Grant Williams. If either or both of them don’t play, I’ll feel even better about Horford’s ability to produce against the Bucks.
Al Horford Over 14.5 Points and Rebounds (1.5u) / Over 2.5 Threes Made (0.5u)
Here are Horford’s core points, rebounds and threes props for the game against the Bucks:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Points and Rebounds: /
- Threes Made: Over/Under /
The Celtics’ desperately need a win in Milwaukee on Thursday if they want a legitimate shot at the 1-seed in the East. If Boston loses, it’ll be four games behind the Bucks with just four games to play for both teams.
Robert Williams III is once again questionable to play and even if he does suit up, we can expect a strict minutes limit for the big man. It’s a big loss for the Celtics against Milwaukee’s imposing front court.
Boston will turn to reliable veteran Al Horford to pick up the slack down low and there should be plenty of minutes for him on Thursday. I’m feeling good about the over on Horford’s points and rebounds combo prop, and on his made threes.
We Need More Papa Al
Horford is close to turning 37 years old. So, it’s no surprise the Celtics limit his minutes during the regular season these days. Over the last five games, he’s only averaged 26 minutes a night and still reached at least 15 combined points and rebounds in four of them.
Four of those five games were also against the tanking Spurs, Wizards, Pacers, and Trail Blazers. It’s realistic to think coach Joe Mazzula was saving his aging big man for tonight’s crucial matchup with Milwaukee rather than tire him out against bad teams.
He clearly appreciates Horford’s value, playing him more than 30 minutes a night since the All-Star break.
In his last two regular season games versus Milwaukee, Horford’s averaged 32 minutes per game. In that time he put up 21 points and 13 rebounds, and climbing over tonight’s combo prop both times.
He also hit five total threes.
Benefiting From Great Ball Movement
Horford is going to get plenty of burn, regardless of Rob-Will’s game-time status.
On defense against Milwaukee, he’s either the primary defender on Giannis or the last man guarding the rim. On offense, he’s a reliable three-point shooter who frequently finds himself with an open attempt at the end of quality ball movement around the perimeter.
Assisted three-pointers are a major part of Boston’s offensive strategy, especially against the Bucks. The Celtics compiled 57 assists in two games versus Milwaukee this season.
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NBA on TNT Props: Pelicans At Nuggets
Jamal Murray Over 20.5 Points
Here are Murray’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Pelicans:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Two-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic is questionable to play on Thursday night against New Orleans. With the 1-seed in the West all but locked up at this point, the Nuggets don’t need a win nearly as badly as the Pelicans do.
Denver is 4-11 without Jokic since last season, scoring just 105 points per game in his absences. However, it didn’t have Jamal Murray last season and and up until a few months ago he was still on a minutes restriction.
I’m confident in Murray’s output tonight even if The Joker does suit up against the Pels, so I’m going with the over on his points prop for Thursday night. I bet this earlier in the day at 20.5. Unfortunately, it has already moved to 22.5 points, sucking some value out of this bet. However, I’d still bet Over 22.5 is Jokic is out.
Heating Up At The Right Time
March was a good month for Jamal Murray. He’s up to nearly 36 minutes per game over the last 12 games, a promising sign that he’ll be fully available for the playoffs.
Murray has also shown he can once again carry the load when Jokic is not on the floor. In his last four games without his starting center, Murray is averaging 22 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds per contest in 35 minutes.
His usage rate also jumps up to 28% compared to 26% when he plays alongside Jokic.
Love Playing The Pels
Murray has enjoyed matching up with New Orleans most of his career. In his last four against the Pels, he’s averaging nearly 25 points and connecting on 44% of his three-point attempts.
New Orleans has relied on its cagey defense to carry it all season long. With long, wiry wings like like Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, and Naji Marshall, the Pelicans have done a good job limiting opposing front court players.
They don’t have quite as much success, though, against point guards such as Jamal Murray.
Over the team’s last seven games, it’s allowed the sixth-most points to the position. Outside of Steph Curry, who lit them up for 39 points on Tuesday night, the Pelicans weren’t exactly playing top-notch competition either.
Best of luck with your NBA on TNT props tonight.