How Did 2022 NBA Futures Odds Shift After Free Agency?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on August 12, 2021
2021-22 NBA Futures

Free agency in advance of the 2021-22 season finished more quickly than the Suns – Nuggets second round playoff series. While a handful of potentially useful players remain in limbo, rosters have largely taken shape for next year. How did 2021-22 NBA futures shift in response to the flurry of moves? Which teams have increased their championship equity and which teams struck out?

We’ll compare odds from opening price to current price on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Top Of The Board: Lakers’ Moves Portend Return To Contention

TeamAug. 11 OddsOpening OddsWin Probability Shift
Brooklyn Nets+210-1.01%
L.A. Lakers+380+450+2.65%
Golden State Warriors+850+1200+2.84%
Milwaukee Bucks+900+800-1.11%
Phoenix Suns+1600+1300-1.26%
Utah Jazz+1700+1400-1.11%
Philadelphia 76ers+1800+1600-0.66%

The L.A. Lakers made the most talked-about move, engineering a trade for Russell Westbrook.

Many questioned the fit with LeBron James but despite the move being panned by some pundits, the market approves of the deal, or at least the Lakers’ moves as a whole. They scooped Kendrick Nunn and Malik Monk on below-market deals. That could help offset the spacing issues Westbrook brings. The net result of all the moves appears to be a slight bump in title equity, with the Lakers now available at .

The other team rising up the board took a completely different approach thus far. Optimism about the Golden State Warriors () stems from getting their original “big three” back to full health. Otto Porter Jr. and Nemanja Bjelica do seem like good fits on the cheap, and Moses Moody could contribute in a 3-and-D role right away.

In a West weakened by major injuries to the L.A. Clippers and Denver Nuggets, that appears to be enough to solidify the Lakers and Warriors as the top dogs. The top-two seeds of 2021, the Jazz () and Suns () basically just brought the band back. The market looks to have penalized them slightly for standing pat while the Lakers and Warriors improved.

One oddity: the Brooklyn Nets odds shifted slightly downward. That came despite an offseason where contract analytics awarded them three of the top-nine value signings in the league. Perhaps nothing much can move the needle when you already have three of the top-15 or so players in the world.

The Middle Class: Miami Heat Big Winners In NBA Free Agency

TeamAug. 11 OddsOpening OddsWin Probability Shift
Denver Nuggets+2200+2000-0.41%
L.A. Clippers+2500+1200-3.84%
Dallas Mavericks+2800+2800
Miami Heat+2800+3500+0.67%
Atlanta Hawks+3500+3500
Boston Celtics+5000+5000
Portland Trail Blazers+6000+5000-0.32%

Things could unravel in a hurry for the Miami Heat in the near future after they committed all of their resources to a core that includes 31-year-old Jimmy Butler and 35-year-old Kyle Lowry. However, they almost certainly vastly improved their team right now. Their defensive-switch ability should give them a fighting chance against East elites Brooklyn and Milwaukee.

The crashing Clippers price comes in spite of an offseason most observers lauded. Many expected them to lose key contributors Nic Batum and Reggie Jackson. Despite seemingly playing their way to raises, both players opted to return after reviving their careers in Los Angeles. The price plunge may stem from increased pessimism about a potential Kawhi Leonard return.

The Rest of 2021-22 NBA Futures: Bulls Moving Up, Raptors Moving Down

TeamAug. 11 OddsOpening OddsWin Probability Shift
Chicago Bulls+7000+10000+0.42%
New Orleans Pelicans+9000+8000-0.13%
New York Knicks+9000+10000+0.11%
Charlotte Hornets+10000+10000
Memphis Grizzlies+10000+10000
Indiana Pacers+10000+10000
Toronto Raptors+15000+8000-0.57%
Washington Wizards+18000+15000-0.11%
Minnesota Timberwolves+25000+25000
San Antonio Spurs+25000+25000
Sacramento Kings+25000+25000
Detroit Pistons+50000+50000
Cleveland Cavaliers+50000+50000
Houston Rockets+50000+50000
Oklahoma City Thunder+50000+50000
Orlando Magic+50000+50000

Like Miami, the Chicago Bulls may have hamstrung themselves down the line with a big-money signing of DeMar DeRozan. However, right now, they have four starters ranging from good to very good after also adding Lonzo Ball. They moved up to +6000 in the immediate aftermath and have settled on DK Sportsbook at +7000. They’re as long as in the market still.

The Pelicans could have been a dark horse contender if they secured the hoped-for Lowry signing. But, they struck out, and analysts remain unimpressed with their other moves. The market agrees, tagging them at a max of .

Letting Lowry walk allows the Raptors to focus on their young core of hopefully their next contender. However, their immediate prospects obviously took a hit. Talk of a potential Pascal Siakam trade — which figures to legitimately boost someone else’s chances — may also have dimmed their market price.

Just a few perfunctory moves likely remain in free agency. The season looms just a couple of months away with the top of the board for 2021-22 NBA futures likely to have settled in before games start. Keep an eye on the board for more potential moves, but with rosters mostly set, it’s time to start projecting and looking for value plays.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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