Mavericks At Celtics NBA Finals Game 5 Odds, Expert Picks: Will Dallas Make History?

With Mavericks odds on the brink of elimination, Luka Doncic & Co. look to win their second straight against Boston in Game 5 of the NBA Finals (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC). On Friday, Dallas delivered an inspiring effort from the opening tip onward, compiling a 26-point halftime lead before officially avoiding a sweep in the 122-84 victory. Will the Mavs notch another rare win on this stage? Let’s dive into the betting angle I’ve deemed most valuable for the Boston Celtics’ odds in a potential series clincher.

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NBA Finals Game 5 odds: spread, moneyline, total

History Doesn’t Favor Mavs

Dallas became the 15th franchise in NBA Finals history to endure a 3-0 series deficit. Even though the Mavs avoided a sweep, which nine teams failed to accomplish, only three managed to advance beyond Game 5.

In 1949, the Washington Capitols forced a Game 6 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the “BAA” Finals before they were sent packing in a 21-point rout. Two years later, the New York Knicks nearly made history against Rochester Royals in the NBA Finals. The Knicks collected three consecutive victories to force a Game 7. The Royals nabbed a four-point home victory to avoid a disaster.

Most recently, the Seattle SuperSonics upended Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls twice after trailing 3-0 in the 1996 NBA Finals. However, Chicago closed out Seattle at home in Game 6, the first leg of the franchise’s second championship three-peat.

The current implied probability for the Mavericks to send this series back to Dallas is 31.3%, given their price tag to win outright.

No team in NBA postseason history has discovered the winning formula to overcome a 3-0 deficit.

Kristaps Porzingis’ Status

Celtics stretch-five Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) is seemingly available to play after missing their Game 4 blowout loss. Nevertheless, injury reports provide plenty of blurriness. If Porzingis does not suit up or is ineffective, the Mavericks’ defense is set up to continue to succeed with their one-man zone.

Remember that Boston backup bigs Al Horford and Xavier Tillman Sr. aren’t as lethal as Porzingis from behind the arc.

At the other end of the court, Boston generated nine fewer potential assists without Porzingis on Friday than they averaged over the first three games.

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How Will Celtics Respond?

While Porzingis’ availability is a significant storyline, expect Boston to flip the script at TD Garden. Entering these NBA Finals, Basketball Reference’s Simple Ratings System (SRS) had a wider gap between the Celtics and Mavs than all but one other Finals matchup in the last 20 years. Over the first three contests, Boston’s domination wasn’t a fluke.

Granted, Doncic rebounded from a disastrous Game 3 performance, which could be a sign that Dallas could still make history. On Friday, Doncic accumulated a 26.9% two-point pull-up frequency and converted on 57.1% of them. Before fouling out on Wednesday, the regular-season scoring champ produced a series-low 14.8% frequency for these looks.

Conversely, I anticipate a bounce-back outing from Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, the only player in league history to accrue a plus-minus of -30 or worse in multiple games in the Finals. With that in mind, I’m betting on Celtics odds to cover the first-quarter line, which is widely available at .

If you’re interested in betting on Tatum’s player props or other Celtics odds, you can price shop the best odds below. For context, Tatum’s Finals MVP odds are directly behind Jaylen Brown, the odds-on favorite in this market at .

game 5 player props