Within the rumor mill erupting over the last few days, 2022 NBA draft odds are adjusting early and often. But what is the implied probability of those odds for the potential landing spots of each player? Here are the betting markets for the top-five selections, including the implied likelihood of each potential outcome.
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2022 NBA Draft Odds: No. 1 Pick (Orlando Magic)
Betting Market Reverses Course
Steam came in on Banchero to be in the first overall selection, reaching as low as +180 on Tuesday morning, but money was back on Smith by the evening. Although Smith’s probability may appear a bit high given the recent market movement, he possesses a finer two-way ceiling than Banchero. The Magic’s pick should follow suit, yet the buy-low value for his NBA draft odds is gone.
No. 2 Pick (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Locked In On Holmgren?
By all accounts, the Thunder have zeroed in on the one-time Gonzaga prospect, and the market reflects that. While this probability for Holmgren’s NBA draft doesn’t guarantee he’ll land with OKC, the other only direction that Thunder general manager Sam Presti would look — unless Smith is available — is Ivey.
No. 3 Pick (Houston Rockets)
Probability Doesn’t Address Potential Volatility
If Banchero isn’t selected by the Magic, there’s zero doubt that the Rockets will nab the Duke product. Nevertheless, the aforementioned betting interest on Banchero actually coming to fruition breeds enough uneasiness that the implied probability is a bit high.
TheLines’ NBA Draft Betting Guide
No. 4 Pick (Sacramento Kings)
Murray Rumors A Smokescreen?
On Monday, I dug into why there was still value in NBA Draft betting for the former Iowa forward going fourth overall. But at this point, it’s sucked out. Even though the Kings could draft Murray if they retain the pick, Ivey could still get the nod — especially if the Knicks acquire the rights to the selection.
No. 5 Pick (Detroit Pistons)
Tightest 2022 NBA Draft Odds Market Yet
For the first time within the top-five picks, I completely disagree with the favorite. If the Pistons hang on to the selection, they’ll reportedly choose Mathurin, whose odds have dipped from +1000 to +350 in recent days. However, Ivey could be in play since the Knicks are also interested in this pick.