NBA Draft Odds: Implied Probabilities For Who Will Be Top 5 Picks

Written By Eli Hershkovich on June 22, 2022 - Last Updated on June 23, 2022
NBA Draft Odds

Within the rumor mill erupting over the last few days, 2022 NBA draft odds are adjusting early and often. But what is the implied probability of those odds for the potential landing spots of each player? Here are the betting markets for the top-five selections, including the implied likelihood of each potential outcome.

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2022 NBA Draft Odds: No. 1 Pick (Orlando Magic)

NameOddsProbability
Jabari Smith-22068.75%
Paolo Banchero+23030.30%
Chet Holmgren+45018.18%
Jaden Ivey+150000.66%
Shaedon Sharpe+250000.40%

Betting Market Reverses Course

Steam came in on Banchero to be in the first overall selection, reaching as low as +180 on Tuesday morning, but money was back on Smith by the evening. Although Smith’s probability may appear a bit high given the recent market movement, he possesses a finer two-way ceiling than Banchero. The Magic’s pick should follow suit, yet the buy-low value for his NBA draft odds is gone.

No. 2 Pick (Oklahoma City Thunder)

NameOddsProbability
Chet Holmgren-17563.64%
Jabari Smith+17536.60%
Paolo Banchero+40020.00%
Jaden Ivey+20004.76%
Shaedon Sharpe+70001.41%

Locked In On Holmgren?

By all accounts, the Thunder have zeroed in on the one-time Gonzaga prospect, and the market reflects that. While this probability for Holmgren’s NBA draft  doesn’t guarantee he’ll land with OKC, the other only direction that Thunder general manager Sam Presti would look — unless Smith is available — is Ivey.

No. 3 Pick (Houston Rockets)

NameOddsProbability
Paolo Banchero-28073.80%
Chet Holmgren+50016.67%
Jabari Smith+55015.38%
Jaden Ivey+80011.11%
Shaedon Sharpe+20004.67%

Probability Doesn’t Address Potential Volatility

If Banchero isn’t selected by the Magic, there’s zero doubt that the Rockets will nab the Duke product. Nevertheless, the aforementioned betting interest on Banchero actually coming to fruition breeds enough uneasiness that the implied probability is a bit high.

TheLines’ NBA Draft Betting Guide

No. 4 Pick (Sacramento Kings)

NameOddsProbability
Jaden Ivey-16061.54%
Keegan Murray+13043.48%
Shaedon Sharpe+90010.00%
Chet Holmgren+15006.25%
Dyson Daniels+15006.25%

Murray Rumors A Smokescreen?

On Monday, I dug into why there was still value in NBA Draft betting for the former Iowa forward going fourth overall. But at this point, it’s sucked out. Even though the Kings could draft Murray if they retain the pick, Ivey could still get the nod — especially if the Knicks acquire the rights to the selection.

No. 5 Pick (Detroit Pistons)

NameOddsProbability
Keegan Murray+12544.44%
Jaden Ivey+24029.41%
Bennedict Mathurin+35022.22%
Shaedon Sharpe+70012.50%
Dyson Daniels+10009.09%

Tightest 2022 NBA Draft Odds Market Yet

For the first time within the top-five picks, I completely disagree with the favorite. If the Pistons hang on to the selection, they’ll reportedly choose Mathurin, whose odds have dipped from +1000 to +350 in recent days. However, Ivey could be in play since the Knicks are also interested in this pick.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich