NBA Draft Lottery Betting: Date, No. 1 Pick Odds, Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes
Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated at October 20, 2025
Although the NBA playoffs officially begin on Saturday, the eliminated teams already have their eyes set on the NBA Draft, otherwise known as the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. Which teams have the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery on Monday, May 12? Here's everything you need to know.
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nba draft lottery odds: projected order
Implied Probability For No. 1 Pick
The 14 franchises that failed to reach the NBA playoffs have an opportunity to earn the first overall pick. Utah, Washington, and Charlotte, which finished with the three worst records, each have the highest implied probability of winning (15.4%) the No. 1 pick among NBA Draft Lottery odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.
This iteration of the NBA Draft Lottery, introduced in 2019, involves 14 ping-pong balls placed in a lottery machine.
To start, four balls are drawn at a time. There are 1,001 potential combinations of the four balls (regardless of order), with 1,000 of those combinations allocated to the 14 teams. The number of assigned combinations aligns with each team’s odds of winning the NBA Draft Lottery. For instance, the teams with the worst, second-worst, and third-worst records possess 140 assigned combinations.
After the lottery balls are in the machine, they're jumbled for approximately 20 seconds. Once the first one is removed, the remaining balls are mixed for another 10 seconds before the second ball is withdrawn. This process repeats for the third and fourth balls. The team with the assigned combination of four balls will receive the No. 1 pick.
The same goes for the second, third, and fourth picks. If one unassigned combination is drawn, the result of that drawing is scrapped, and the lottery balls are drawn again. After the fourth selection, slots five through 14 are delegated in inverse order of each team's regular-season record.
Hence, the team with the worst record cannot pick lower than fifth, the team with the second-worst record cannot pick lower than sixth, and so forth.
Projected NBA Draft Lottery Order
- Utah Jazz (17-65)
- Washington Wizards (18-64)
- Charlotte Hornets (19-63)
- New Orleans Pelicans (21-61)
- Philadelphia 76ers (24-58)
- Brooklyn Nets (26-56)
- Toronto Raptors (30-52)
- San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
- Houston Rockets (via Phoenix Suns) (52-30)
- Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)
- Miami Heat (37-45)
- Dallas Mavericks (39-43)
- Chicago Bulls (39-43)
- Atlanta Hawks (via Sacramento Kings) (40-42)
nba draft odds: flagg favored to go no. 1 overall
Evaluating Top NBA Prospects
As noted, the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 12. Bettors will learn where Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and the rest of the upper-echelon prospects will land. The middle portion of the lottery was shaped after seeds 7-10 in each conference duked it out in the play-in tournament.
Just like Victor Wembanyama was the clear-cut option to go first overall to the San Antonio Spurs in 2023, Duke's Cooper Flagg is a massive favorite (-20000 at DraftKings Sportsbook) this time. While Flagg stated on Friday that he's determining his draft status, the expectation is he'll depart the program after one season.
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Even though the Utah Jazz just wrapped up their worst season in franchise history, winning the NBA Draft Lottery would most likely give them the right to select Flagg.
Moreover, Dylan Harper (+1800) failed to deliver an NCAA tournament appearance during his lone season at Rutgers. Still, the youngest son of former NBA star Ron Harper is considered to boast a high floor with the skill, poise, and playmaking instincts that help dictate the action at his pace.
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