NBA Championship Odds: Are Boston Celtics Big Betting Favorites?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NBA Championship Odds

With NBA playoffs odds down to the “Final Four,” there has been plenty of movement within the title futures market. After Oklahoma City fell to Dallas in the Western Conference semifinals, Boston Celtics odds represent the only top-two seed on either end of the bracket. But how much separation is there between the Celtics’ NBA championship odds and the remaining three contenders? Find out below.

Click on any NBA Finals odds below to place a wager. These prices are the best available in your state.

NBA championship odds assessment

Per the table above, the Celtics () are the odds-on favorite to win the title, meaning their betting odds imply greater than a 50% chance. Boston’s implied probability of winning the NBA Finals is around 60%. Jayson Tatum & Co. are squaring off against the upstart Indiana Pacers odds in the Eastern Conference finals.

In the first two rounds of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Celtics have only dealt with 79 seconds of “clutch time,” indicating the score was within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Although they tallied the fourth-highest point differential per 100 clutch possessions (+15.4) in the regular season, they weren’t battle-tested against the Cavaliers or Heat. 

The Pacers gave them all they could handle in Game 1, coughing up a late lead before Boston responded in overtime. Still, Indiana has benefited from a bevy of injury luck during its postseason run.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, Mitchell Robinson, and Jalen Brunson missed time versus Indiana, with the Knicks’ shortened rotation running out of gas in the Game 7 rout. That is partly why Boston’s NBA championship odds are so short — the market anticipates a quick series. For reference, the most likely outcome at Caesars Sportsbook is the Celtics winning in five games, priced at +155.

Indiana’s implied probability of winning the title is as low as 2.4% at BetMGM Sportsbook, with Minnesota Timberwolves odds and Dallas Mavericks odds smacked in the middle of the board.

The Timberwolves boast the second-best chance of hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy after knocking off the defending champion Denver Nuggets in their seven-game series. Minnesota overcame a 20-point deficit in the finale. Its best championship odds are .

Finals MVP Odds

Over 30 players have been crowned NBA Finals MVP since the award’s inception in 1969, honoring the late great Bill Russell. Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry took home the most recent honors. Unsurprisingly, the NBA championship odds correlate with which player wins it.

Like when the postseason began, Tatum is favored to win the NBA Finals MVP. He was originally in the +260 range. Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic’s odds have undergone the most notable adjustments, dropping from +2500 and +1800, respectively.

Even with veteran star Kyrie Irving in the picture, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Mavs win the championship and Doncic doesn’t win Finals MVP. That isn’t necessarily the case for the Timberwolves. Karl-Anthony Towns delivered a team-high 23 points and 12 rebounds in their series-clinching win at Denver.

Towns could exploit Boston’s undersized frontcourt in a potential NBA Finals matchup. His best MVP odds are .

Conversely, this path would require Minnesota to avoid a perimeter shooting barrage from Boston’s small-ball lineup, especially if Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (right half strain) is healthy. Porzingis has missed the last six playoff games. He’s expected to sit out at least the first two contests of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Meanwhile, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday are all in the conversation if Boston breaks through among NBA championship odds. Brown has the next-best NBA Finals MVP odds on the team, set at .

Photo by Associated Press