Throughout the NBA playoffs, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dive into the NBA betting market for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Bucks and Celtics.
NBA Betting: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
On Saturday, Milwaukee held off Boston’s fourth-quarter rally to take a 2-1 series lead. The Bucks’ two-point win was in line with the final score from ShotQuality (115-114), as both teams were gifted a 50.0% chance to pull off the win based on their graded attempts.
Nevertheless, the Celtics’ offense still underachieved their potential efficiency, thanks to three-time All-Star Jayson Tatum shooting 4-of-19 from the field. According to ShotQuality, Tatum was expected to score 21 points despite only tallying 10 of them.
Although Milwaukee wing Wes Matthews played sound defense on Tatum in Game 3, the 6-foot-8, 210-pound small forward missed his fair share of open looks. Anticipate a bounce-back performance — especially with Boston aiming to avoid a 3-1 series deficit.
Activating Celtics’ Elite Defense
If Tatum & Co. are effective with their half-court offense, they’ll in turn limit the Bucks’ transition opportunities. Within the Celtics’ top-rated defensive efficiency (1.04 points per possession), they boast the No. 1 half-court defense. Giannis Antetokounmpo represents an arduous defensive task in any situation, yet Ime Udoka’s crew is better positioned to limit his paint touches when Milwaukee isn’t able to push the tempo — like in Game 2.
Moreover, Milwaukee doesn’t generate many second-chance shots while Boston cleans up the defensive glass at an above-average rate. Couple that with the Celtics’ overall defensive prowess, and their road map to producing another low-possession outing is evident.
The under has hit in all eight of the Bucks’ postseason games, and it’s barely been adjusted from Game 3 (). I’m buying more into Tatum’s reemergence offensively, though, so let’s bet Boston as a result.
Best Available Line: Check our NBA odds board
Eli’s NBA Betting Pick: