NBA All-Star Weekend has arrived, and with it a bevy of games and contests in Utah. One of them, of course, is the NBA Starry 3-Point Contest. As part of TheLines‘ All-Star Weekend betting preview, we’ll take a look at NBA 3-point contest odds.
The 3-point contest takes place Saturday night at 8 p.m. EST. It will be televised on TNT.
Anyone’s Game: Lillard, Hield Slightest Of Favorites
Damian Lillard | Bet now +425 | Bet now +400 | Bet now +440 |
Buddy Hield | Bet now +425 | Bet now +425 | Bet now +410 |
Kevin Huerter | Bet now +550 | Bet now +500 | Bet now +525 |
Jayson Tatum | Bet now +500 | Bet now +550 | Bet now +600 |
Tyler Herro | Bet now +550 | Bet now +550 | Bet now +750 |
Tyrese Haliburton | Bet now +600 | Bet now +700 | Bet now +625 |
Lauri Markkanen | Bet now +650 | Bet now +650 | Bet now +750 |
Julius Randle | Bet now +700 | Bet now +800 | Bet now +950 |
The contest will feature eight sharpshooters aiming to best each other across two rounds of long-range gunning. The top three scorers of the initial round advance to the finals.
This year’s field looks pretty balanced, something that’s been a theme in recent years that didn’t involve Stephen Curry as the prohibitive favorite.
The markets don’t quite have a consensus favorite, with Buddy Hield and Damian Lillard looking a hair ahead of the other competitors. However, their implied win probabilities of around 20% are not really all that much higher than those of the gunners in the +700 range (~13%).
It may be easy to overlook Julius Randle, by far the weakest statistical shooter in the contest. However, keep in mind a longshot big man with mediocre shooting stats took it down just last year in Karl-Anthony Towns.
Let’s check in on some stats and concepts within the rules that will help certain competitors.
- Get the best prices on NBA futures odds here
NBA 3-Point Contest: Key Stats
| Player | Career 3-point% | 2022-23 3-Point% | 2022-23 Above The Break 3-Point% | 2022-23 Corner 3-Point% | Deep 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 37.3% | 37.2% | 38% | 37% | 165 makes (36.9%) |
| Buddy Hield | 40.1% | 42.6% | 41% | 50% | 161 makes (40.9%) |
| Kevin Huerter | 38.2% | 39.2% | 40% | 35% | 103 makes (38.6%) |
| Jayson Tatum | 37.8% | 35.7% | 35% | 45% | 149 makes (35%) |
| Tyler Herro | 38.1% | 36.9% | 37% | 40% | 101 makes (35.2%) |
| Lauri Markkanen | 37.3% | 41.2% | 37% | 55% | 98 makes (36.8%) |
| Tyrese Haliburton | 40.7% | 39.9% | 41% | 44% | 111 makes (38.4%) |
| Julius Randle | 33.4% | 33.8% | 35% | 32% | 103 makes (32.9%) |
- Corner/above the break data via Cleaning The Glass
- Shot distance data via NBA’s official stats
Remember that the competitors take more shots from above the break than the corners — three racks to two. That means Lauri Markkanen’s incredible corner 3s get slightly muted.
Additionally, and perhaps most interestingly from a handicapping perspective, the shot rotation involves a pair of attempts from extra-long range. Last year dubbed “Mountain Dew balls,” this year’s sponsor has changed to a different soda called Starry, so these shots come from “Starry Range” now. They come from about six feet behind the 3-point line.
While the competitors only shoot two of these, they count for triple the normal shots and 1.5x the money ball shots. That makes them pretty important.
Unfortunately, the NBA doesn’t quite have their shot distance stats divvied up with 28 feet in mind. Therefore, the closest we can come and still get a reasonable sample is their 25-plus distance splits.
While most readers will not be surprised at all to find Lillard as the most prolific long-range bomber, perhaps Hield’s numbers will count as a surprise. The Pacers deadeye has been notably more accurate on nearly as high a volume. That may be why the markets are bullish on his chances come Saturday.
