Joey Chestnut Banned: 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Bets, TV Schedule

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Hot Dog Odds

On July 4, the average American joins friends and family for a cookout. It involves frankfurters, served hot in a long, soft roll and covered in various condiments. Others prefer to watch competitive eaters consume them hyper-aggressively at the annual Nathan’s Famous Hog Dog Eating Contest. With that in mind, let’s handicap 2024 hot dog odds, a contest that appears to be the most competitive in years.

That’s because Joey Chestnut, the greatest all-time hot dog eater, is banned from this year’s Coney Island competition. If you’re wondering why, you won’t be alone. Below, we’ll also explain why he’s unable to.

Click any Nathan’s Hot Dog odds below from the best sports betting sites to place a wager. These odds are as of Thursday morning.

men’s outright winner
Geoffrey Esper
James Webb
Nick Wehry
Patrick Bertoletti
Gideon Oji
Derek Hendrickson
Darrien Thomas
Max Stanford
George Chiger
Last Updated on 07.04.2024
women’s outright winner
Miki Sudo
Mayoi Ebihara
Michelle Lesco
Katie Prettyman
Larell Marie Mele
Last Updated on 07.03.2024

Hot Dog Odds Strategy

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There aren’t many professional sports bettors who bet on the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Chris Kelly is one of them, and he’s kind enough to share his betting expertise on the red-hot event of the day.

Chestnut Roasting On A … Vegan Hot Dog?

Corn(dog)y joke or not, the men’s contest will occur without Chestnut, the 16-time champion. It’s the first one that hasn’t featured Chestnut since 2006, otherwise known as the Takeru Kobayashi era. Before Chestnut’s 62-dog outing last year, his odds hovered in the -3000 range.

Nevertheless, the 40-year-old competitive eater has moved on to vegan franks, officially partnering with Impossible Foods and Netflix for a contest against Kobayashi on Labor Day. Nathan’s contest does not allow any eaters to be sponsored by their direct competitors.

For this Independence Day, Chestnut will compete against soldiers in a five-minute hot dog eating contest at the Fort Bliss US Army post in El Paso, Texas.

Kelly’s Bets: Men’s Hot Dog Odds

Without Chestnut in play, Kelly has his eyes set atop the betting board, with Geoffrey Esper favored. James Webb and Nick Wehry follow suit.

Veteran contestant Patrick Bertoletti (+800) first caught Kelly’s attention, but he noted that Bertoletti’s qualifying performance of 48 hot dogs isn’t as imposing as it appears on the surface. Bertoletti inhaled 53 and 51 hot dogs from 2011-12 but only devoured 33.5 in 2022.

“There’s one thing we know about Esper – he’s consistent,” Kelly said. “He’s been in the 47-50 range for years (47 in 2019). I thought Wehry would take a bigger step forward last year, but he failed. Esper’s routine and prep were the best of his career. He ate 50 in practice! I’m not biting on it again this year, even after he dropped a strong qualifying score.

“Esper and Webb should be closer to co-favorites, so I’m playing the price. Esper will probably chow down 47-50 dogs. Still, early in his pro career, Webb only needs to move forward again after having set a personal best last year (47) after his first performance of 41 dogs.

“Webb was up three dogs on Esper last year with over two minutes to go. While Esper made a valiant comeback, delivering a second-place finish, Webb was much greener then. He’ll be better this year.”

Webb has cashed in on six Major League Eating (MLE) records, all of which have come since Feb. 26. Kelly projects for Webb to ingest 49-52 hot dogs come Thursday. He’s wagered on James Webb to win at +225 odds (now +130 at BetMGM Sportsbook), recommending Webb down to +125.

Kelly also likes Webb over 47.5 hot dogs, up to -110. This betting market can be found below.

Total Hot Dogs Eaten by James Webb
Over 47.5
Under 47.5
Over 48.5
Under 48.5
Last Updated on 07.03.2024

Kelly’s Bets: Women’s Hot Dog Odds

Revisit the 2022 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, and you might stumble upon Kelly’s handicap of renowned professional eater Miki Sudo. After giving her the benefit of the doubt in that competition, he decided to fade her this time.

“When I started to dig into Sudo’s totals again, I realized she’s never topped 41 hot dogs outdoors,” Kelly said. “She dropped a 48.5 in the indoor event in 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak, but otherwise, her totals (starting with last year) are 39.5, 40, DNC, 48.5 (indoors), 31, 37, 41, 38.5, 38, 34. The last time she cleared 40 was way back in 2017.

“Sudo has competed in the same events as last year. In three of them, she’s posted a lower number (Bagels, Donut Holes, Donuts). She was down as many as 21 percentage points compared to her 2023 output.

“I love the Sudo under this year, given the total doesn’t align with her baseline and current form. I bet Sudo under 41.5 at various prices at an average of -150.”

For reference, Kelly advises to bet Sudo under 40.5. If it’s down to 39.5, he’d recommend betting a half-unit.

His projections have Sudo in the 35-39 (hot dog) ballpark.

Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Miki Sudo
Over 40.5
Under 40.5
Last Updated on 07.03.2024

Kelly anticipates that the women’s contest will be the best since Sudo, vying for her 10th crown on the Fourth of July, missed it a few years ago when giving birth to her first baby. Mayoi Ebihara, who burst on the scene last year, is the reason behind this notion.

“No one knew anything about her (Ebihari), but she pushed Sudo the whole way, eventually losing by six dogs after posting a 33.5 in her first-ever Nathan competition. Ebihara was tied at 32 with Sudo with one minute and 30 seconds left on the clock when Sudo out-ate her, 7.5-1.5.

“Ebihara is still a bit of an unknown, but she’s young, and historical results show eaters typically gain steam in second and third tries in the competition. I’ve projected she will top the 33.5 from last year.”

For Kelly’s final outright bet, he’s wagered on Ebinhari to emerge victorious at +800 odds. This price is currently listed at +500. He’d play it down to +300.

Pigs In A Blanket

How about some snacks to round out this betting guide? In the “matchups” market, Kelly has bet on Webb -6.5 vs. Sudo (-115), Ebihara +7.5 vs. Sudo (-115), and Esper -7.5 vs. Sudo (-150). As you’ll see below, these odds have already begun shifting, which isn’t surprising in an illiquid market.

James Webb vs. Miki Sudo Dog Line
Webb -7.5
Sudo +7.5
Last Updated on 07.03.2024
Mayoi Ebihara vs. Miki Sudo Dog Line
Sudo -5.5
Ebihara +5.5
Last Updated on 07.03.2024
Geoffrey Esper vs. Miki Sudo Dog Line
Esper -9.5
Sudo +9.5
Last Updated on 07.03.2024

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: TV Schedule

  • Women’s Competition: 10:45 a.m. EST on ESPN3
  • Men’s Competition: Noon EST on ESPN2

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