NASCAR Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds: Phoenix Rough On Longshots

Written By Brett Gibbons on March 9, 2022
Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds

NASCAR returns to Phoenix Raceway– the same course that will host the Cup Series Championship in November, and NASCAR Phoenix odds have installed last year’s winner Kyle Larson as the favorite.

Phoenix offers a new challenge for Sprint Cup drivers this season on a one-mile track, who until this point have only raced on larger, faster courses. Below, we’ll take a look at Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds and offer some race analysis.

NASCAR Phoenix Odds: Ruoff Mortgage 500

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Kyle Larson
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+350
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+400
Kyle Busch
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+750
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+750
Martin Truex Jr.
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+750
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+750
Joey Logano
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+800
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+850
Chase Elliott
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+800
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+850
Denny Hamlin
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+800
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+950
Ryan Blaney
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+1200
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+1300
William Byron
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+1400
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+1500
Kevin Harvick
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+2000
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+2100
Christopher Bell
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+2500
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+2400
Tyler Reddick
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+2500
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+2500
Alex Bowman
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+2500
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+2500
Aric Almirola
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+2500
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+2800

Stars Shine Bright

If you’re looking for a good weekend to fire a longshot, this isn’t it. Phoenix Speedway is a shorter track– just a hair over a mile long– and flat. Unlike short tracks that run fast like Bristol, Phoenix favors skill and maneuvers as opposed to flat out speed. The Cup Series Championship will also be held in Avondale, making this a high-stakes track.

Drivers like Kyle Larson (+450), Kyle Busch (+750), and Joey Logano (+850) are safer looks near the top of odds boards. As mentioned in previous race previews, Busch’s team (Joe Gibbs Racing) puts a greater emphasis on playoff tracks and especially championship tracks.

“It didn’t translate to a win in the championship last year, but they were more competitive than they were the year before,” FanDuel’s Jim Sannes mentioned when talking Gibbs. Star drivers on JGR not yet mentioned include Denny Hamlin (+950) and Martin Truex Jr. (+750). Neither of these drivers have notched a top-five finish this year, but Phoenix puts them in a good position to do so.

Christopher Bell notched his first top 10 last week, finishing 10th at Las Vegas. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a prop on all JGR drivers to finish inside the top 10 at a healthy +450, making it an intriguing bet. You could also correlate between this bet and taking Toyota +210 to win the race outright.

Sannes On Phoenix

“The major thing with Phoenix (and all short, flat tracks) is that the best drivers and best teams tend to shine bright. It’s not about one specific team beasting it there. It’s more about it being tougher for longshots to pull through because it’s a track type where the biggest teams tend to run so well.”

How I’m Betting NASCAR Phoenix Odds

With special emphasis being placed on this track by Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyotas should perform well. Chevrolet +110 is the favorite this week due to Kyle Larson also being a stronger favorite, but three of the next four drivers on the odd board drive Toyota. I gave special consideration to All JGR to finish in the top 10 (+450), but ultimately leaned away because a lot would need to go right there (as in, no wrecks to any of them).

As far as Cindric goes, he’s the driver with the longest odds who’s on with one of the Big Three (Penske). If the major teams run as well as I think they will this weekend, Cindric is a good value. They’ll help their new star rookie all afternoon and he’s the only plus-money driver on the board.

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How To Watch

Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Arizona

When: Sunday, March 13, 3:30 p.m. ET

Laps/Distance: 312 laps/312 miles

Previous Winner: Kyle Larson

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons