Daytona 500 Odds: NASCAR Betting, Past Winners, Manufacturers
This Sunday, the NASCAR regular season returns to your TV with the 2025 Daytona 500. With two consecutive wins, Chevrolet is looking for the first manufacturer's three-peat since 2005-07 (also Chevy). Kyle Busch (+1400), Kyle Larson (+1600), and Chase Elliott (+1800) lead the Chevy pack, but Ryan Blaney (+1300), Joey Logano (+1300), and Brad Keselowski (+1400) — all Ford — top NASCAR odds boards. The Great American Race is set for Sunday, Feb. 16, at Daytona International Speedway, so let's look at the latest Daytona 500 odds.
Sunday's forecast for Daytona calls for rain midday, which could push the start time for this race to the evening. Be sure to keep up with updates to race time.
Daytona 500 Odds For 2025 NASCAR Season
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A Major Change To NASCAR
Starting in 2025, drivers involved in wrecks whose cars hit the garage are no longer automatically disqualified. Drivers may re-enter the race after their vehicles are repaired with this updated damaged vehicle policy.
In previous years, wrecks often eliminated large swaths of the field in one fell swoop. Last year, 10 of the 40 drivers did not finish the race due to wrecks. In 2023, 17 drivers didn't cross the finish line. In 2022, 12 failed to finish the race.
Cars irreparably damaged in wrecks and repairs that take too long still doom a driver's position and are bound to happen. Hopefully, this rule change will cut down on the number of vehicles finishing the race in the garage. This should also help bettors, whose risk of losing drivers to DVP is reduced.
Chevrolet Seeks Daytona 500 Three-Peat
Manufacturer parity in the Great American Race has never been greater than in the last 20 years. Since 2018, Chevy, Ford, and Toyota each took two consecutive races before succumbing to another make. Something worth noting, however, is the 2022 rollout of the Next-Generation car. The goal of the Next-Generation car was to remove the necessary restrictor plates that were introduced to Superspeedways in 1990 to slow cars down and improve safety.
Last year's race picked the pace back up significantly. Its 157.18 mph average speed was the fastest since 2016 but is still a -20 mph departure from the pre-restrictor plate era in the late 1980s.
Chevy and Ford split dominance at Superspeedways, winning 19 of 22 races since the start of the Next-Gen era. That follows a more expected 15-of-22 run between the two, usually broken up by Toyota's Denny Hamlin from 2019-22. Hamlin became the first driver to win back-to-back races since Cale Yarborough in 1983-84. He became the first driver to win consecutive races with the same car since the legendary Richard Petty in 1973-74.
Chevy was the last manufacturer to win three consecutive Daytona 500 races, with five straight from 2003-07 (five different drivers).
William Byron (+1600) — racing in the iconic 24 car — and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4000) won each of the last two. This year, Kyle Busch (+1400), Kyle Larson (+1600), Chase Elliott (+1800), and Byron (+2000) lead the Chevy pack.
Should You Back Daytona 500 Longshots?
Perhaps not if you look at Daytona 500 history as a whole. But recent history tells a different story.
Gone are the days of Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson's dominance. Though Hamlin became just the sixth driver ever to win three races, recent editions of the Daytona 500 highlight longshots and first-timers. In 2023, Stenhouse Jr. won with 40-1 longshot odds. In 2022, Austin Cindric (30-1) became the first rookie to win the race. Michael McDowell shocked the NASCAR world in 2021, winning with 66-1 longshot odds. Before Hamlin's back-to-back wins, Austin Dillon (55-1) notched a thrilling victory with a last-lap overtake.
Starting near the front of the pack doesn't always guarantee success, though it likely shortens many drivers' odds. The last four races at Daytona featured a winner with an average starting grid position of 20th, with no driver starting in the top 10 winning the race since Cindric in 2022. In fact, Cindric is only the second driver to win while starting inside the top 10 since 2018, the other being Hamlin (10th in 2020). We won't know the starting grid until Saturday after qualifying.
While blindly betting a longshot to win the Daytona 500 might not be the most fruitful effort, don't overlook the middle of the pack when browsing the odds table for Sunday.
Daytona 500 Odds Picks
Despite the dominant run of Chevy and Ford in the Next-Gen era, counting out Toyota may be a fool's errand. In two races at Daytona International Speedway last year, Toyota landed seven drivers in the top 14 combined. Christopher Bell finished third in each of those races and in three of his previous four starts at Daytona. Bell also led 22 laps at the 2024 Daytona 500. The 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 was the lone race at Daytona not to feature a Toyota in the top 10.
Bell enters his eighth season with Joe Gibbs Racing, earning nine NASCAR Cup wins and 19 additional NASCAR Xfinity Series wins. Hamlin won all three of his Daytona 500 races with Gibbs. Given his recent success and all-star team, I'm picking Bell with a few considerations.
However, like with golf betting, picking just one winner is a mistake.
Chris Buescher also has a track record of success at Daytona. With Ford, Buescher won the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar, led 32 laps at the 2023 Daytona 500, and another 10 at the 2024 Coke Zero Sugar. He has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts at Daytona International Speedway.
A real boom-or-bust pick, Brad Keselowski had previous success at Daytona ... when he finished. In his last six races at the Superspeedway, he wrecked and didn't finish half the time — the other half, Keselowski finished inside the top 10 (eighth, second, and ninth, respectively).
2025 Daytona 500 Bets:
- Christopher Bell to finish in the top five (Christopher Bell +285 on DraftKings)
- Christopher Bell to win Daytona 500 (Christopher Bell +2500 on FanDuel)
- Brad Keselowski to win Daytona 500 (Brad Keselowski +1600 on FanDuel)
- Chris Buescher to win Daytona 500 (Chris Buescher +2000 on BetRivers)
Depending on qualifying and line movement, these picks may fluctuate.
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