NASCAR At Talladega: Geico 500 Odds, Betting Analysis

Written By Brett Gibbons on April 22, 2022
NASCAR at Talladega

NASCAR returns to Talladega Superspeedway this Sunday in the 2022 Geico 500. It’s one of the most anticipated races of the season on one of the fastest and hottest tracks on the circuit. What drivers and trends are we watching for NASCAR at Talladega?

NASCAR at Talladega Odds

To bet on a driver, click the odds in the table below.

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Ryan Blaney
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+1000
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+1000
Joey Logano
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+1200
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+1200
Denny Hamlin
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+1400
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+1300
Chase Elliott
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+1400
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+1300
Bubba Wallace
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+1400
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+1300
Austin Cindric
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+1400
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+1300
Brad Keslowski
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+1400
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+1300
Chase Briscoe
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+1400
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+1300
Kyle Larson
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+1600
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+1700
Kyle Busch
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+1600
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+1700
Kevin Harvick
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+1600
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+1700
William Byron
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+1800
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+1700
Tyler Reddick
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+2000
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+1900
Alex Bowman
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+2000
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+1800
Aric Almirola
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+2000
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+1900
Ross Chastain
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+2500
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+2400
Kurt Busch
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+2500
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+1700
Christopher Bell
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+2500
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+2400

Gieco 500 Field Analysis

A few things to note about races at Talladega: It’s the longest track on the schedule, it’s one of the fastest and hottest tracks in NASCAR, and it promotes pack driving. While pack driving makes for extremely exciting races, it’s also notorious for causing massive wrecks that alter the entire race in a second. From a fan’s perspective, this is great TV. From a betting perspective, it can be pretty nerve-wracking.

So far this season, Chevys and Fords have proven capable of dominating the longer tracks, with Fords in particular showing excellent team efforts at tracks like Daytona. The struggles for Toyota in the new stock car continue.

Betting favorite Ryan Blaney (+1000) ran well last season at the larger tracks, picking up his three wins at Atlanta, Michigan, and Daytona. Blaney has the highest average finish at Talladega since February 2019 (11.0). He’s followed by Chase Briscoe (2 starts, 12.5 avg.), Brad Keslowski (13.0), and Denny Hamlin (13.8), all of which land in the top six in odds.

Where does the value lie?

If you’re looking purely at numbers, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering much longer odds for top-10 betting this weekend. For example, Eric Jones– a driver FanDuel’s Jim Sannes pointed out to TheLines– is offered at +360 to finish inside the top 10 at FD, but that same prop is offered at only +200 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Across the board, the longer-priced drivers have even longer odds at FanDuel than other books this weekend. Other major pricing differences include:

  • Cole Custer: +280 at FanDuel vs. +125 at DraftKings
  • Justin Haley: +320 vs. +150
  • Ty Dillon: +430 vs. +225
  • Daniel Hemric: +850 vs. +250

If you’re shopping for top-10 longshots, FanDuel is going to be your place this week.

Jim Sannes on betting drivers at even money in top 10s

“FanDuel is giving out some crazy long top-10 odds for guys with a legit shot to get a top 10…I’m peppering top 10 bets on guys like Erik Jones, Todd Gilliand, and Daniel Hemric (I like Jones outright too)…The one favorite I do like [outright] is Joey Logano at +1200 (8.6% for me as the favorite versus 7.7% implied).

My numbers wouldn’t show value on any driver in the field at even money for a pack race, honestly. [The] guy with the shortest odds for a top 10 is Ryan Blaney. Even he … has top 10s in just 33% of his career races at Talladega…So I can’t even get close to betting anybody at even money.”

Watch NASCAR at Talladega

When: Sunday, April 24, 3:00 p.m. ET

Where: Talladega Superspeedway (Talladega, AL)

TV: FOX

Laps/Distance: 188 laps (2.66 miles)

Previous winner: Brad Keslowski

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons