NASCAR At Circuit Of The Americas 2022 Betting Preview

Written By Brett Gibbons on March 23, 2022
Circuit of the Americas

NASCAR heads to Austin, Texas for the year’s first road course as the 2022 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix is on tap. What makes road courses different and what drivers can you expect to excel this weekend? Check out NASCAR at Circuit Of The Americas odds and betting analysis below.

NASCAR at Circuit of the Americas odds

Below are NASCAR at Circuit of the Americas odds. Click to bet on the price(s) you like.

Outright Winner

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Chase Elliott
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+250
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+270
Kyle Larson
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+300
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+350
Martin Truex Jr.
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+1000
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+1000
Kyle Busch
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+1000
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+1000
Austin Cindric
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+1400
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+1400
Denny Hamlin
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+1600
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+1600
Christopher Bell
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+1600
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+2000
Chase Briscoe
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+1600
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+1600
AJ Allmendinger
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+1600
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+1700
William Byron
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+1900
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+1800
Ryan Blaney
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+1900
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+1800
Joey Logano
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+2500
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+2400
Ross Chastain
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+2500
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+2100

Circuit of the Americas preview

What’s important to note this weekend is the prominence of a road course and what sets it apart from the other tracks on the schedule. Circuit of the Americas (COTA) – famously used as the lone active Formula 1 track in the United States – contains seven right-hand turns; the typical NASCAR track has zero. Overall, each lap has 20 turns as opposed to the standard four. It slows drivers down and employs unique skills that helps some drivers shine.

Last year’s winner at COTA and current NASCAR standings leader, Chase Elliott (+270), is a slight favorite over Kyle Larson (+350). Elliott has averaged a seventh-place finish in 12 road course races since Feb. 2019, tops in the current NASCAR field. Behind him? Larson, who has an average finish of 8.5 in 10 races. Other notable drivers on the board include Martin Truex Jr. (+1000) and Denny Hamlin (+1600).

Take a look at the way odds boards lie versus that driver’s average finish on road courses since February 2019:

DriverOdds (as of Mar 23)Average Road Course Finish
Chase Elliott+2707.0
Kyle Larson+3508.5
Martin Truex Jr.+100010.5
Kyle Busch+100016.5
Denny Hamlin+16008.9
Chase Briscoe+160016.9
AJ Allmendinger+170016.0
Ryan Blaney+180011.6

While finishes are important for identifying good road course drivers, FanDuel’s Jim Sannes cautions putting too much weight on previous finishes.

“[Ryan] Blaney is a former winner on a road course, and he’s better than his numbers would have indicated last year,” Sannes comments. “Just in general, though, finishing position on road courses can be flukey because of the number of strategies implemented.”

He cited Tyler Reddick’s team strategy from 2021 that prioritized stage finishes in order to make a playoff berth based on points, not wins. “So his finishes weren’t great, but he was getting a ton of stage points and showing speed.”

Sannes On Potential Value

“It’s a brand new car, which throws a lot of stuff into flux. Specifically, it means that Larson/Elliott may have less of a stranglehold at the top than they’ve had previously. Blaney’s odds are short because 2021 was a terrible year for Penske on road courses. They were all terrible … With that said, Joey Logano benefits from the same thing, has longer odds, and ran better than Blaney on road courses last year. So I think Blaney’s odds are too short and Logano’s are too long.”

How I’m betting the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

It’s not often that you get a straight up, “this guy is a better value than this guy” from an expert. I’m running with that. That said, given the variance of road courses and the longshot nature of Joey Logano this week, I’m going to give myself some wiggle room and lay down a top-five finish rather than an outright. At +300, it’s a decent ROI, implying he has a 25% chance of finishing inside that top five.

Since Feb. 2019 – and I do recognize what Sannes says about new cars and past finishes – Logano has posted four top-fives in 12 races (33%). A proven 33% top-five rate versus a 25% implied probability is a fairly stark discrepancy in odds. He also has the eighth-best average finish at road courses among active drivers with more than one start (12.8). Given his excellence at road courses and his recent track record of top fives, I’m taking the bet.

How to Watch NASCAR at Circuit of the Americas

  • When: Sunday, March 27, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas
  • Laps/Distance: 68 laps/231.88 miles (3.4 miles)
  • Previous Winner: Chase Elliott

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons