Mountain West Odds: Boise State A Shoe-In For Conference Championship, Playoff?

This year, the Mountain West Conference is a league of change. Eight of its 12 members turn over at the head coaching position, two coming as late as mid-July. In a time of unprecedented change in college football, the conference has unprecedented change. Boise State is the odds-on favorite to win the Mountain West, beating out UNLV and Fresno State, among others. Typically a deep league, the MWC transitions to a more top-heavy one in 2024, with six real contenders and some of the projected worst teams in college football. But as we see every year, disruption is the name of the game out West.

Without the Pac-12, the Mountain West becomes the nation’s premier after-dark conference. Let’s dive into everything you need to know about this league in 2024. Below are power rankings, previews for all 12 teams, potential longshots to back, and more.

Mountain West Odds: To Win The Conference

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Only one team in the country has shorter odds to win its conference than Boise State this year (Liberty in CUSA). Only those two teams are odds-on favorites to win a conference crown; at -110, Boise State has a 52.4% implied probability of winning the Mountain West. Fresno State and UNLV fall as a clear Tier 2, projected to be the contenders in the league. A week 5 matchup between the two in Las Vegas could be an early determining factor in who makes the MWC Championship.

The Rocky Mountain Teams — Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming — are middle-class, priced between 14-1 and 20-1. San Diego State provides a buffer before we get into real longshot territory. This is a deep league filled with quality teams, but barring a serious shock from a longshot, six teams are considered contenders.

New Mexico and Nevada have serious longshot odds and project to be two of the bottom teams in the nation.

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Projected Wins, Win Totals

Projected wins below are derived from aggregate power ratings, including SP+, FPI, and more. Win totals are pulled from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Aug. 15.

Team	Proj. Wins	Win Total	Price
Boise State Broncos	8.5	9.5	+108/-132
Air Force Falcons	7.4	6.5	-134/+110
Fresno State Bulldogs	6.6	7.5	-148/+120
Wyoming Cowboys	6.2	6.5	+116/-142
UNLV Rebels	5.9	7.5	+122/-150
San Jose State Spartans	5.7	4.5	-105/-115
Utah State Aggies	5.5	5.5	+138/-170
San Diego State Aztecs	4.9	5.5	-102/-120
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	4.5	5.5	-110/-110
Colorado State Rams	4.5	6.5	+104/-128
New Mexico Lobos	2.4	2.5	+122/-150
Nevada Wolfpack	2.3	2.5	+100/-122

Conference Power Rankings

Table Key (all ranks except power rankings are national):

• Rank (Power ranking, conference)
• Proj. Wins (Projected total wins)
• Return (Returning production, total)
• PPD (Points per drive scored)
• PPDA (Points per drive allowed)
• L5 (Last five years recruiting average, national)

Mountain West Odds: The Favorite

Boise State Broncos
MW Odds:

After Week 11 last year, Boise State fired its head coach. Interim Spencer Danielson became the first interim ever to lead his team to a conference title and was named permanent head coach. The Broncos went just 1-4 in games which was decided by seven points or less and went 3-0 against the spread under Danielson before failing to cover +6 in the LA Bowl (lost 35-22 to UCLA).

Mountain West Player of the Year Ashton Jeanty returns with real All-America promise. Jeanty rushed for over 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns while also bringing in almost 600 receiving yards and another five touchdowns. Latrell Capels, the team’s top receiver who missed last year with an injury, and three starters along the offensive line – including two All-MWC selections – also return. That explosive offense adds former five-star recruit QB Malachi Nelson from USC and standout WR Cam Camper from Indiana.

However, Nelson was beat out by Maddux Madsen, who attempted 132 passes last year.

Ten players who started at least five games return on defense. EDGE Ahmed Hassanein was named honorable mention All-America last year after notching 16.5 tackles for loss. Linebacker Andrew Simpson earned all-conference honors and 155 tackles combined return between safeties Alexander Teubner and Seyi Oladipo. Jeremiah Earby transfers in from Cal and projects to start at the corner.

Per Phil Steele, Boise has nationally elite units at RB (14th) and offensive line (23rd) and nationally excellent defensive line (34th) and linebacker (35th) units. Its schedule ranks favorably (78th), avoiding Fresno State and handling Oregon State and Washington State at home. Also notable is that Boise State is 3-0 straight up and against the spread against Oregon all-time. The two haven’t played since 2008 but square off in Eugene in Week 2.

While Liberty has the easier route to the CFP, Boise State is more talented. This team has a top-10 national ceiling.

Mountain West Odds: The Contenders

Fresno State Bulldogs
MW Odds:

Fresno’s worst fears were realized when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down again due to health concerns, this time in mid-July. The program had a contingency plan, and AHC Tim Skipper took the reins. Between Tedford and Kalen DeBoer, Fresno has had excellent head coaches since 2017. The last time someone other than those two-headed Fresno, it went 1-11 (Tim DeRuyter, 2016).

QB Mikey Keene returns. At his best, Keene was excellent (366 yards, 4 TDs vs. Purdue). But at his worst, Keene was disastrous (9-for-16, 58 yards), culminating in a shocking 25-17 loss to New Mexico as a -23 favorite in Week 12. As Keene melted down the stretch, Fresno State finished 0-3, losing to San Jose State (42-18 as +2 underdogs), New Mexico (-23), and San Diego State (-5). Despite that melt, the Bulldogs went 5-1 in one-score games – a testament to great coaching and a mark bound to regress.

Star corner Cam Lockridge returns this year after missing last year to injury, as does All-MWC tackle Jacob Spomer. The team landed an interesting piece, Missouri State (FCS) transfer Raylen Sharpe. Keene and Sharpe (993 yards, 7 TDs) could be one of the more dynamic duos in the league this coming season.

Skipper is a first-time head coach. At a well-run program, he’s likely an apt replacement for Tedford, but don’t underestimate the impact a coach like Tedford has on the field. Should Fresno come out slow under Skipper – especially against a run of Sac State, New Mexico State, and New Mexico – don’t hesitate to fully fade the Bulldogs for 2024 Mountain West odds.

UNLV Rebels
MW Odds:

According to an opposing Mountain West coach, the league expects Barry Odom to leave for Arkansas should he lead UNLV to another great season and the spot be vacant. Odom was an AHC and defensive coordinator for the Razorbacks before taking the UNLV job. Given his personnel and offensive system, it’s not irrational to think that UNLV has built on its success from last year.

QBs Jayden Maiava and Doug Brumfeld both depart. However, a pair of intriguing FCS transfer QBs battle for the vacancy – Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross) and Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell). Sluka is the presumed starter, thanks to his dual-threat nature. Star receiver Ricky White led the nation in yards per route run, an excellent indicator of individual WR success (how many yards does he demand every time he runs a route?). White also stretches the field, finishing second in Y/RR on throws 20+ yards downfield.

Defensively, UNLV features two All-MWC returns and nine Power Conference transfers. A pair of those Power Conference transfers, Tony Grimes (North Carolina) and Jalon Catalon (Arkansas, Texas), project to start in the secondary this year. The defense was disruptive, finishing third in takeaways nationally, but also porous against better offenses. In five losses last year, UNLV allowed 39.2 points per game; only two were one-score games.

The first two months of the season aren’t kind to the Rebels. Weeks 5-9 are particularly tough, with Fresno State and Syracuse visiting Allegiant Stadium before UNLV hits the road for Utah State and Oregon State consecutively. Boise State then comes to town with a rest advantage and after body blows for the Rebels.

Mountain West Odds: The Middle Class

Colorado State Rams
MW Odds:

You’re probably familiar with the name Tory Horton already. But, if not, get familiar. In a conference packed with receiving talent, Horton leads the group and could find himself drafted in the first round of next year’s NFL draft. He’ll get plenty of time to shine in a pass-heavy Colorado State offense. Only four teams threw the ball more frequently than the Rams last year (61.3% of plays). QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi was tasked with throwing the ball 469 times as a freshman, with mixed results. He completed 62% of his passes and threw 22 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and 26 turnover-worthy balls (second-most).

As is the case with air-it-out teams, offense wasn’t the issue. The defensive secondary, which returns four of five starters, allowed a ghastly 71.5% completion rate from opposing quarterbacks. Once opponents hit the red zone, it was almost a guaranteed score—91% of RZ trips resulted in points of some sort. That unit loses a stud pass rusher in Mohammed Kamara, who vacates 13 sacks. The defense is a veteran unit; six seniors are projected to start, including four in the secondary.

Besides Horton, watch for WR Jordan Ross (CSU’s highest-rated recruit since 2004) and RB Justin Marshall (who led the team in yards per rush, 5.5). Fowler-Nicolosi won’t have difficulty finding talent around him, and Colorado State’s offense could be one of the best units in the Mountain West.

The Rams handle the Rocky Mountain Showdown against Colorado at home this year and avoid Boise State and UNLV. Colorado State missed out on a bowl, thanks to Hawaii’s incredible 50-yard scramble field goal last year. This year, CSU should be among the bowl-eligible teams.

San Diego State Aztecs
MW Odds:

Nobody in the country is about to pivot as hard as San Diego State. Sean Lewis brings his Flash Fast offense to SoCal and tries to revamp an offense that spent the last decade outside the top 100 in seconds per play. For the last few years, the Aztecs ranked in the bottom 10 in tempo, while Kent State ranked in the top seven in pace under Lewis every year.

Sophomore AJ Duffy, a Florida State transfer, projects to start at QB. Danny O’Neil and Kyle Crum (unrelated to prolific QB Dustin under Lewis at Kent State) are other candidates. RB Marquez Cooper transfers in after rushing for over 1,000 yards at Kent State and Ball State in three consecutive years. Cooper was a Lewis recruit in 2020 and should continue to find success at San Diego State. Last year, SDSU failed to produce a 500-yard receiver of any kind. Returners like Mekhi Shaw should see a dramatic increase in production this year.

The biggest question surrounding this team is whether the defense matches the new tempo of offense. Lightning-fast paces offensively means the defense is on the field more frequently, which can lead to fatigue and giving up more points. That’s just the nature of it. After spending years inside the top 30 nationally in points per drive, the Aztecs bottomed out last year, finishing 71st and allowing 30+ points five times.

The road is tough this year. SDSU plays Boise State and UNLV on the road and lands Oregon State and Washington State. Air Force is handled at home, as are both former Pac-12 schools. SDSU is likely a long-term project for Lewis, but this year, we should see a dramatic transformation, if not immediate improvement.

A Mountain West Longshot To Consider: Air Force Falcons

Even by service academy standards, Air Force has a lot to replace. QB Zac Larrier graduates, and without him in the lineup last year, Air Force completely collapsed, losing its final four regular-season games. Juniors and seniors sit ready to play this year and fill those vacancies, but it was evident how poorly this offense runs without a strong quarterback. John Busha, the primary quarterback during that 0-4 run, projects as the starter.

Air Force returns just 762 of its 3,560 rushing yards from a season ago. Last year, 16 of 22 starters were seniors or fifth- and sixth-year players. This year, there are more juniors in the lineup (10). That kind of relative youth means the Air Force could be a serious 2025 buy, but that doesn’t mean writing them off for 2024. There are worse bets to make than Air Force to win the Mountain West at . The Falcons avoid Boise State and UNLV and handle rival Colorado State, Fresno State, and Oregon State at home. They visit Baylor in the non-conference – a team they beat to a pulp in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl.

Troy Calhoun is a beacon of consistency. Now entering Year 18, Calhoun is a career 60% ATS coach (107-70-3). Removed the COVID-altered season – which particularly affected service academies –  Calhoun has won 9+ games in his last four seasons. He’s also 5-0 in his last five bowl games, dating back to 2016. The bottom line is, no matter who needs replacing, Air Force is likely a 9-3 or 8-4 team.

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A Mountain West Team To Fade: Wyoming Cowboys

Jay Sawvel isn’t a stranger to Wyoming football culture. He spent the past four years on staff, calling the defense. Under his direction, Wyoming finished near or inside the top 50 in PPD every season. Promoting him to head coach upon Craig Bohl’s retirement made sense, and Sawvel isn’t going to make any dramatic changes to the program. So, in essence, we’re getting the same Wyoming Cowboys we’ve seen for a while.

But just because Sawvel comes from the program doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to maintain consistency. Despite running the ball an awful lot and being one of the most conservative coaches on fourth downs, Bohl stole wins he shouldn’t have had (see: 2023 vs. App State). Bringing in a first-time head coach doesn’t guarantee those same results. Last year was Wyoming’s best since 1998, finishing 9-4.

The Cowboys will continue to have a disruptive defense and a subdued offense, made worse by the absence of Harrison Waylee (947 yards, 5 TDs), who tore his ACL at the start of camp in August. Another back, Dawaiian McNeely, returns from his torn ACL. Junior Evan Svoboda rises at QB1 to replace Andrew Peasley, a veteran who wasn’t flashy but could get things done in crunch time (see: 2023 vs. Texas Tech).

Wyoming is the same as we’ve seen for years but with less proven prowess at the head coaching position and worse talent. This is far from a bad Cowboys team, but they’re likely more middle-of-the-pack than contenders this coming season.

Everyone Else

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
MW Odds:

Gunslinger Brayden Schager returns this year after leading the country in pass attempts last year. Watch for the status of standout WR Steven McBride, facing legal charges and returned to the team, but not competition, as of August. Hawaii makes two trips all year east of a state that borders the Pacific Ocean (Sam Houston State in Week 3 and Utah State in Week 13). A Week 1 home date with UCLA could be meat on the table for the Rainbow Warriors, who are no strangers to Power Conference upsets on the island. Expect a continued run-n-shoot approach under Timmy Chang with varied defensive results.

Nevada Wolfpack
MW Odds:

Jeff Choate is a sensible hire for Nevada, as he has championship experience from Montana State (FCS). It’ll be a slow build in Reno, as Nevada lacks high-end talent almost anywhere on the roster. QB Brendan Lewis returns after throwing just two touchdowns and six picks in 10 starts last year. RB Pat Garwo won’t play in the season opener. Linebacker Drue Watts may be the only true standout on the team, and the Wolfpack are closer to eyeing another 2-10 years than they are any bowl eligibility. They won’t be favored over a single FBS opponent.

New Mexico Lobos
MW Odds:

Like Nevada, it’s a long-term build for New Mexico. Bronco Mendenhall returns to the coaching ranks, and if anyone can turn UNM into a bowl team, it’s him. However, this roster has almost no scholarship players, and the Lobos play the toughest schedule among all Group of Five teams. Already a big underdog in their Week 0 game against Montana State (FCS), New Mexico won’t be favored over a single team in 2024. New Mexico signed a sub-200 D-I recruiting class, the worst in program history. All five starters on the offensive line are likely transfers, and all have collegiate starting experience.

In six seasons, Mendenhall took Virginia to five bowls. Since then, they’ve been to none and have not played in a bowl the previous eight years before Mendenhall. At BYU, he won 10+ games in five of six years.

San Jose State Spartans
MW Odds:

Ken Niumatalolo takes over for a departed Brent Brennan (Arizona). Texas State’s Craig Stutsman takes over at OC, and Niumatalolo won’t be running the option here but rather the spread-and-shred offense that led the Bobcats to a bowl last year. SJSU returns WRs Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart (who missed most of last year to injury), but lose two of the better players in program history (QB Chevan Cordiero and RB Kairee Robinson). With just one starter back on the offensive line, SJSU’s offense has its work cut out.

Utah State Aggies
MW Odds:

Disruption hit the team when head coach Blake Anderson was dismissed in July. DC Nate Dreiling, hired this offseason from New Mexico, takes over as interim, but the noise around the program is a concern. Jalen Royals is one of the best receivers in the Mountain West, though he often sits in the shadow of Horton and White. This defense was among the worst in the nation last year. After spring practice, five players transferred to Power Conferences. The scandal surrounding the program and little top-end talent mean Utah State could be a conference bottom-feeder for 2024 Mountain West odds.

Mountain West All-Conference Team

QB: Brayden Fowler-Nicholosi (Colorado State), Matthew Sluka (UNLV)
RB: Asthon Jeanty (Boise State), Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) 
WR: Tory Horton (Colorado State), Ricky White (UNLV), Jalen Royals (Utah State)
TE: John Michael Gyllenborg (Wyoming)
OT: Kage Casey (Boise State), Tiger Shanks (UNLV)
IOL: Jacob Garder (Colorado State), Ben Dooley (Boise State), Jalen St. John (UNLV)

DL: Ahmed Hassanein (Boise State), Soane Toia (San Jose State), Jordan Bertagnole (Wyoming), Devo Bridges (Fresno State)
LB: Drue Watts (Nevada), Shae Suiaunoa (Wyoming), Jackson Woodard (UNLV)
CB: Cameron Oliver (UNLV), A’Marion McCoy (Boise State)
SAF: Jack Howell (Colorado State), Ike Larsen (Utah State)

Coaching & Coordinator Changes In The Mountain West

Sean Lewis, San Diego State: Lewis brings Flash Fast to San Diego State, a program that’s sat at the bottom of scoring and pace for over a decade. Win or lose, the Aztecs will undergo the biggest transformation of any team in the country this year.

Bronco Mendenhall, New Mexico: Back in the coaching ranks, Mendenhall is one of a few coaches trustworthy enough to turn New Mexico into a bowl team eventually. He’ll take his lumps this year with few scholarship players on the roster.

Ken Niumatalolo, San Jose State: Niumatalolo will oversee a vastly different offense (and a vastly different coast) than his last stop at Navy. SJSU transitions to the spread-and-shred offense seen at Texas State. A veteran, Niumatalolo is equipped to keep the Spartans bowl-eligible this year.

Jay Sawvel, Wyoming: Sawvel was an internal hire who hoped to keep the Wyoming football culture consistent. He led the Cowboys to a disruptive defense in the last four years, but will he do anything to improve the offense and repeat the program’s best success seen last year?

Check out every Mountain West odds-related coaching and coordinator change this offseason!

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