Italian Grand Prix Odds & Prediction for 2026: Can Max Verstappen Continue Dominance on this Stage?

Max Verstappen hasn’t been the dominant force Formula 1 fans have grown accustomed to seeing this season, but Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix takes place at a track where he’s been nearly unbeatable in recent years.

Verstappen has won three of the last four races at Monza, taking the Italian Grand Prix in 2022, 2023 and again last season. The only interruption came in 2024, when Charles Leclerc delivered a home victory for Ferrari. That history makes Verstappen an intriguing option at +1600 despite entering Sunday well behind the betting favorites.

George Russell is the clear favorite at -118, followed by Leclerc at +400 and Lewis Hamilton at +700. Pierre Gasly, who surprisingly captured the first pole position of his Formula 1 career Saturday, is +1200. Verstappen sits alongside Lando Norris at +1600, with Oscar Piastri just behind at +1700.

Verstappen Has Owned Monza

There’s a reason Verstappen deserves consideration despite the long odds.

He won from seventh on the grid at Monza in 2022 before returning a year later and winning again during his historically dominant 2023 campaign. After finishing sixth in 2024, Verstappen bounced back last season with another commanding performance, winning by more than 19 seconds over Norris. He also started the 2025 race from pole after setting the fastest qualifying lap by average speed in Formula 1 history.

This weekend, however, hasn’t suggested another Verstappen runaway.

Red Bull’s long-run pace has trailed Mercedes and Ferrari, with adjusted Friday data putting Verstappen roughly two-tenths of a second per lap behind the benchmark. Russell has been particularly impressive, leading both FP2 and FP3. Ferrari has been right there as well, with Leclerc and Hamilton showing some of the strongest race simulations of the weekend.

Verstappen did show signs of life Saturday morning, finishing third in final practice behind Russell and Hamilton. He then qualified sixth, and the expected reshuffling of the grid gives him an opportunity to start closer to the front.

At +1600 on most sports betting apps, bettors don’t need Verstappen to be the favorite. Those odds imply a win probability of less than 6%. Given his Monza history and ability to capitalize if the faster cars run into trouble, there’s enough upside to make him an interesting longshot.

Ferrari Provides The Strongest Alternative To Russell

While Verstappen provides the storyline, Leclerc at +400 straight up remains the strongest outright value.

Ferrari’s long-run speed has been nearly identical to Mercedes throughout the weekend, and Leclerc has shown outright pace from the beginning, including leading FP1. He’s also the only driver to defeat Verstappen at Monza over the previous four seasons, winning the 2024 race with an aggressive one-stop strategy.

Russell deserves to be favored after qualifying second and topping the final two practice sessions, but -118 requires him to win more than half the time to justify the price. That feels aggressive considering how competitive Ferrari has looked.

Hamilton at +700 is also appealing. He was second-fastest in FP3 and has shown race pace comparable to Leclerc. With both Ferraris positioned near the front, Russell could quickly find himself dealing with two legitimate threats.

Gasly’s +1200 price is less attractive despite his pole. Alpine produced remarkable qualifying speed, but its long-run pace hasn’t matched Mercedes or Ferrari. Holding off faster cars for 53 laps presents a significantly different challenge.

That brings the betting conversation back to Verstappen.

He probably isn’t the most likely winner Sunday, and Red Bull hasn’t shown enough speed to make +1600 the primary bet. But a driver who has won three of the last four Italian Grands Prix shouldn’t be ignored at a price this long.

Best Bet: Charles Leclerc +400

Value Bet: Lewis Hamilton +700

Longshot: Max Verstappen +1600