Most Bet NFL Teams Have One Sportsbook Facing ‘Seven-Figure’ Liability

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 9, 2021
most bet nfl teams

Bettors love to play futures in all sports, and the NFL is no different. As Week 1 kicks off, TheLines reached out to several sportsbooks to see how their handle and liabilities shaped up for the 2021 season. We used their responses to put together a report on the most bet NFL teams.

What are some of the biggest bets they’ve booked? Which teams represent the most popular plays for the betting public? We’ll run through the answers to these questions and more.

FanDuel Sportsbook NFL Futures: Facing “Large Seven-Figure Liability” On Buffalo

While the market expects the Kansas City Chiefs to repeat as AFC champions (best futures price: ), FanDuel Sportsbook will actually be rooting for them should they face the Bills again in the playoffs.

That’s because the Bills represent FD Sportsbook’s biggest liability in the Super Bowl futures market. The book reported a “large seven-figure” liability on the Bills at around +1200.

Like Kansas City, Buffalo has basically brought the band back and hopes the ascendancy of Josh Allen as one of the league’s premier QBs proves no fluke.

FD Sportsbook must feel comfortable with the liability given the current price of .

Other lopsided team action from their NFL futures report:

  • Bucs over 11.5 wins
    • currently over
  • Texans under 4 wins
    • currently over
  • Packers over 10.5 wins
    • currently over
  • Football Team over 8.5 wins
    • currently over

On the player side, it’s no surprise bettors are pounding overs. Here are a few of their notably lopsided handles:

  • Justin Herbert over 29.5 TDs
    • best current price: over
  • Corey Davis over 850.5 yards
    • lowest total available: over
  • Amari Cooper under 1,150.5 yards
    • lowest total available:
  • Brandon Aiyuk over 850.5 yards
    • best current price: over
  • TJ Hockenson over 5.5 TDs
    • best current price: over
  • Chris Godwin over 7.5 TDs
    • best current price: over
  • Jalen Hurts over 625.5 rush yards
    • lowest available total: over
  • Najee Harris over 7.5 rushing TDs
    • best current price: over
  • Ezekiel Elliott over rushing 9.5 TDs
    • best current price:

Chalk NFL Futures Plays Dominate At DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook did not provide quite as much detail on the most bet NFL teams. What they did offer was wholly unsurprising: 2020 Super Bowl participants Kansas City and Tampa Bay are dominating their NFL futures handle.

The Chiefs (currently ) lead DK Sportsbook’s count in both handle and tickets, 17.6% and 16.8%, respectively. Tampa Bay (currently ) isn’t too far behind at 13.6% and 12.9%.

Both teams have taken 23% of the handle for their respective conferences, with ticket counts even more whopping at 38% for KC and 30% for Tampa.

DK Sportsbook also shared a couple of large futures plays they accepted:

  • $6,000 on Bucs to win Super Bowl (+600); would profit $36,000
  • $3,100 on Giants to win Super Bowl (+8000); would profit $248,000

Finally, while it doesn’t fall under futures liability, the house did accept an enormous prop bet: $75,000 on Elliott to score a TD in the season opener at -115.

PointsBet Welcoming Avalanche Of Bears Super Bowl Money

The top liability in Super Bowl markets at PointsBet Sportsbook might surprise some readers. The house has taken a pile of money on the Chicago Bears.

The trading team has welcomed the action, declining to nudge the price from its .

“Bettors are believing in the immediate upside of Justin Fields,” Head of Trading Jay Croucher told TheLines. “We’re happy to take them on and have kept their Super Bowl price at 66-1 despite the rush of money. There are question marks on the offensive line and in the secondary, as well as the QB uncertainty. We’ll take our chances with Aaron Rodgers and what should also be an improved Minnesota team in that division.”

The rest of the PointsBet top-five Super Bowl futures liabilities:

Not everyone playing at PointsBet believes in the Bears, however. They did book someone on Bears under 7.5 regular season wins for $6,500 at -120.

Other notables from PointsBet’s NFL futures report include:

  • $3,900 on Packers win NFC North (-110)
    • current best price:
  • $2,500 on Josh Allen wins MVP (+1200)
    • current best price:
  • $2,500 on Vikings win NFC North (+270)
    • current best price:
  • $1,000 on Bucs to go 17-0 ($500 each at +4000 and +5000)
    • current best price:
  • $2,500 on Patrick Mahomes wins MVP (+450)
    • current best price:
  • $500 on Eagles win Super Bowl (+12500)
    • current best price:

BetMGM Fading All Manner Of Bucs Futures

A common theme ran though the liabilities and bets shared by BetMGM Sportsbook. They booked a ton of action large and small on all manner of Tampa Bay Bucs bets.

Here’s a rundown of some of the heavy Bucs action:

  • $30,000 to win Super Bowl (+700)
  • $25,000 to win Super Bowl (+800)
  • 65% of tickets, 84% of handle on Bucs win total over (currently 12)
  • Site-leading 19.2% of Super Bowl handle (opened +1200, now +700)
  • Site-leading 26.7% on Tom Brady MVP (now +1400)

Other large wagers BetMGM will sweat for the coming season:

  • $19,000 on Packers to win Super Bowl (+1400)
    • current best price:
  • $1,515 on Falcons to win NFC (+6600)
    • current best price:
  • $5,000 on Vikings to win NFC (+2500)
    • current best price:
  • $10,000 on Patriots to win AFC (+1800)
    • current best price:
  • $17,857 on Seahawks to win NFC (+1400)
    • current best price:
  • $1,000 on Raiders/Bucs Super Bowl (+15000)
  • $500 on Aaron Donald to win MVP (+20000)
    • current best price:

Most of BetMGM’s lopsided regular season wins portfolio comes about where you’d expect: Titans over 9, Chiefs over 12.5, Texans under 4. However, one does stand out from the others among most bet NFL teams. BetMGM has booked 91% of its Panthers season win money on over 7.5.

 

(Bet info is according to each sportsbook’s communications department and has not been independently verified.)

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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