MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 6
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Tuesday, Oct. 6!
The National League Division Series continues with two games Tuesday. The Braves host the Dodgers at Truist Park at 6 p.m. EST, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Chris Sale. Next, the Padres host the Brewers at Petco Park at 9:30 p.m. EST, with Nick Pivetta facing Dustin May.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices from my card for these MLB playoff picks and player props. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 6)
We’ve got just two games to choose from, and these are entertainment-sized bets. Finding a clean home run matchup against this group of pitchers is difficult, and the postseason doesn’t make things any easier.
Managers have their high-leverage options available, and starters can get a short hook. Even if we like a matchup against the starting pitcher, that opportunity might not last very long.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Brice Turang are my home run targets, while Chris Sale’s strikeout under rounds out my betting card. Before betting, confirm starting lineups, pitching plans, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Fernando Tatis Jr.
We’ll start in San Diego.
Of the four starting pitchers on this slate, Dustin May is the one I’m most interested in attacking. That doesn’t mean this is an easy spot, especially with Milwaukee’s bullpen behind him.
However, according to Baseball Savant, he allowed a 44.2% hard-hit rate this season. That leaves room for a hitter who consistently squares up the baseball to do damage.
Why not go back to Fernando Tatis Jr.?
You’ll probably see recurring names in these playoff articles. With only two games available, I’m not going to move away from an elite hitter just to find a different name.
Tatis slugged .652 in September during the regular season. He finished the month with eight home runs, and that’s the kind of form I want to back when the available matchups are limited.
His underlying contact numbers are excellent too. Tatis ranks in the 90th percentile or better in several power-hitting categories that matter, including bat speed and expected slugging percentage.
This guy can do serious damage when he gets a pitch to hit. My view is that his underlying profile leaves room for an even bigger home run season down the road. One of these years, he's going to hit at least 40 home runs in a single season. However, for today, we just need one.
The downside is that San Diego’s at home, so the Padres might not bat in the ninth inning. That’s worth acknowledging when every plate appearance matters in a home run bet. Still, Tatis’ September production and hard-contact quality make him difficult to ignore. At +483, I’m willing to take another small swing.
Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +483
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Brice Turang
I’m staying in the same game for Brice Turang to hit a home run at +730.
Nick Pivetta is a good pitcher, so this isn’t a bet built around pretending otherwise. He finished the regular season with a 2.86 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings. That's a small sample size because he missed a ton of time with an injury this year.
According to Baseball Savant, Pivetta allowed a 10.1% barrel rate this season. He struck out more than a batter per inning, but hitters still produced some dangerous contact when they put the ball in play.
Meanwhile, Turang finished the regular season with a career-high 21 home runs, giving us a hitter who showed considerably more power than his name might initially suggest.
Pivetta’s right-handed, and Turang’s stronger power split came against righties. Turang slugged .510 with 18 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. His .291 batting average in that split translates to a .219 ISO, clearing that .200 threshold I’m looking at.
At +730, the price is a major part of the appeal. If we’re going to chase home runs on a tough slate, I want at least one selection with a substantial payout. This isn’t a spot where I’m looking to make a big investment.
Pivetta can pitch well, and Turang can still hit one ball out of the yard. At the same time, a quick postseason hook could limit the matchup, as the Padres have an elite bullpen. Those risks are why this is another tiny bet. With the price factored in, I think Turang deserves a look.
Best Bet: Brice Turang To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +730
MLB Prop Pick: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts
My pitching prop is Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 on DraftKings.
Sale is an absolute monster. This isn’t a bet against his talent. It’s a bet that collecting eight strikeouts against this Dodgers lineup is a difficult assignment.
Of course, he can do it, but the postseason creates additional obstacles. Longer at-bats can push a pitch count higher, and managers can turn to the bullpen rather than let a starter battle through trouble.
Even for Sale, that makes this a demanding number. Mookie Betts is at the top of the Dodgers' lineup, and he's struck out less than 10% of the time against left-handed pitchers this season.
Additionally, there are three other Dodgers in the projected starting lineup who have struck out 20% of the time or less against southpaws in 2026. Half of this LAD lineup is going to be a big-time battle for Sale.
Best Bet: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140
Before placing your bets, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Keep the stakes small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy another night of October baseball.
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