MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 1: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy May — we've got a full Friday slate to kick off the new month, and these are the best MLB bets today for May 1. We've got a strikeout under on a pitcher who has no business getting to five, a total bases play on one of the best hitters alive against a shaky lefty, and home run picks today targeting a slugger due for a get-right game. Let's get into today's picks!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 1

Brady Singer under 4.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB best bets today at -125 on FanDuel Sportsbook. This pick is really about Singer's lack of stuff more than anything else.

Per Baseball Savant, Singer ranks in just the 10th percentile in strikeout rate, 25th percentile in whiff rate, and 30th percentile in chase rate. His average fastball velocity sits at just 91 mph. He is simply not a good pitcher right now, and he is not putting hitters away.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are striking out at a 23.1% clip against right-handed pitchers this season, per FanGraphs. That mark is around the league average. Guys like Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Nick Gonzalez, and Spencer Horwitz are all punching out less than 20% of the time against righties so far this season. It's a low-key pesky lineup, and five strikeouts is a tough ask. Give me the under.

Best Bet: Brady Singer Under 4.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -125

MLB Player Props Today: Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases

Aaron Judge 2+ total bases is one of the best MLB player props today at -110. The Baltimore Orioles are expected to call up Cade Povich for what appears to be a spot start. Anytime you can get Aaron Judge against a left-handed pitcher, you pay attention.

Povich was downright rough last season. Per Baseball Savant, he allowed an 11.3% barrel rate (9th percentile), a nearly 47% hard-hit rate, and posted a 5.44 xERA. His chase rate and whiff rate were both lower than his strikeout rate, suggesting some future regression.

Judge, as we all know, is one of the best hitters on Earth and absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. A spot start from a shaky southpaw at Yankee Stadium is exactly the kind of matchup you circle for a total bases play.

Best Bet: Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases FanDuel, -110

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Home Run Picks Today: Daulton Varsho

For my MLB home run bets today, I'm going with Daulton Varsho of the Toronto Blue Jays at +490 on FanDuel Sportsbook against Simeon Woods Richardson. Varsho hasn't got hot yet in 2026, but this is a prime get-right spot.

Varsho posted a .359 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. Against right-handed fastballs, specifically, he posted a .333 expected ISO, which is an eye-popping number. Had Varsho qualified in terms of at-bats, he would have graded as borderline elite in both barrel rate and bat speed. The power is real.

Woods Richardson is throwing his fastball nearly 50% of the time to left-handed hitters this season, is allowing an expected ISO north of .200 against lefties, and is not missing bats. He is predictable and hittable in this split. The pitch mix lands right in Varsho's wheelhouse, the matchup is excellent, and the price is generous. Eventually, Varsho is going to catch fire, and Friday looks like a great matchup to get started.

Best Bet: Daulton Varsho to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +490

Good luck Friday — let's cash some MLB best bets today and start May right.