MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 9: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back to discuss the best MLB bets today for Saturday, May 9! We've got an over, an under, and home run picks today to break down. We'll discuss power arms Chase Burns and Spencer Strider before digging into home run bets against Zack Littell.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 9

I can't pass this one up at the current number. Chase Burns over 6.5 strikeouts is one of my top MLB best bets today at -130 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Cincinnati Reds' righty takes the hill at Great American Ball Park on what should be a hot afternoon against the Houston Astros. The Astros are one of the toughest strikeout matchups in baseball, but the number and price are too good.

Houston owns the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the majors this season. I get it. But Burns' stuff is simply too good to fade at this number. He ranks in the 85th percentile in strikeout rate and the 95th percentile in whiff rate per Baseball Savant. He throws his slider 38% of the time and has a putaway percentage of nearly 37%. It's just nasty stuff.

I can live with paying -130 juice here. Burns has the stuff to get to seven strikeouts against anybody, even in a tough matchup.

Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -130

MLB Player Props Today: Spencer Strider Under 5.5 Strikeouts

Spencer Strider under 5.5 strikeouts is arguably my favorite MLB player prop today at -108 on FanDuel. It's tough to say, but Strider may never fully recapture the elite velocity he flashed before his string of injuries.

The numbers tell the story. In 2023, Strider's fastball sat at 97.2 mph, and he ranked in the 98th percentile in whiff rate and 99th percentile in strikeout rate per Baseball Savant. By 2025, that velocity had dipped to 95.5. Through his first start of 2026, it's down to 94.6, which is a full two miles per hour below his peak.

Strider did throw 87 pitches in that outing, so the leash appears to be fine, which limits the workload angle here. But what we're really betting on is whether this is the 2025 version of Strider — slightly above league average in strikeouts rather than the borderline-elite version of years past. Five strikeouts feels like a perfectly fair landing spot against a loaded Dodgers' lineup.

Best Bet: Spencer Strider Under 5.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -108

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Home Run Picks Today: Kyle Stowers

For my MLB home run bets today, the Washington Nationals are sending out Zack Littell, which means left-handed power bats are in play on the other side.

Littell has been getting absolutely shelled by left-handed hitters this season. He's striking out just 7.5% of them and has surrendered an expected ISO of .370 per Baseball Savant.  Pairing Littell with a terrible Nationals' bullpen is a perfect recipe for home run picks today.

Kyle Stowers is my target at +360 on FanDuel. He's been slow to round back into form since returning from the injured list, but last season he posted an ISO north of .300 against right-handed pitching. The underlying power is there, so it's just a matter of when it shows up. This is one of the best get-right spots in baseball for a left-handed hitter with pop, and at better than 3-to-1 odds, the price is well worth it.

Best Bet: Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +360

That wraps up my MLB best bets today. Good luck on Saturday!