MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 8: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Friday's MLB slate is loaded with pitching prop value, and we've identified two strikeout unders and home run picks today worth backing. Let's get into the best MLB bets for Friday, May 8.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 8
Nick Lodolo under 5.5 strikeouts is one of my top MLB best bets today at -108 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cincinnati Reds lefty makes his 2026 major league debut Friday against the Houston Astros, and the workload concerns are obvious.
Lodolo has been dealing with a blister issue that dates back to last season. It's been a nagging problem that has kept him off the mound all year. Lodolo has yet to exceed 79 pitches in any of his minor league rehab outings this year. Maybe he gets to 90 if things are clicking today.
Lodolo did post an above-average strikeout rate last season, ranking in the 62nd percentile per Baseball Savant. But the Astros are one of the toughest strikeout matchups in baseball, owning the sixth-best strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in 2026 per FanGraphs.
Best Bet: Nick Lodolo Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -108
Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass MLB Player Props Today: Connelly Early Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Connelly Early under 4.5 strikeouts is my favorite MLB player prop today at -120 on BetMGM Sportsbook. The Red Sox lefty takes the hill at Fenway Park tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays, and the matchup is as grueling as it gets.
Early has the upside to develop into a solid big-league arm, but right now, the advanced metrics aren't pretty. He carries a 5.33 xERA and ranks below average in strikeout rate, chase percentage, and whiff rate per Baseball Savant. Early is punching out just a tick above 20% of hitters this season.
Tampa Bay owns the second-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in baseball this season at 18.1% per FanGraphs. The Rays are nearly impossible to punch out. In a divisional clash at Fenway, I think Early will have a difficult time getting to five strikeouts. Give me the under.
Best Bet: Connelly Early Under 4.5 Strikeouts BetMGM, -120
Get Up to $1,000 Back in Bonus Bets Over Your First 10 Days Home Run Picks Today: Juan Soto
We're heading to Chase Field to target some MLB home run bets today. The New York Mets are set to take on Ryne Nelson of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Nelson had a promising 2025 campaign and entered this year as a breakout candidate, but regression has hit him like a freight train.
Nelson carries a 5.76 xERA and ranks in just the 9th percentile in barrel rate at nearly 13%. He's also just 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 4th percentile in ground-ball rate per Baseball Savant. That's why he's on the opposite end of our home run picks today.
The Mets get to operate in the controlled hitting environment of Chase Field, and the left-handed bats are where the real damage is being done. Lefties own a .273 ISO against Nelson this season with an expected ISO of .355, meaning there's even more power yet to come.
There are a handful of lefties in the Mets lineup worth targeting, which includes a lottery ticket dart throw on Carson Benge at +730 on FanDuel Sportsbook. But the primary play is Juan Soto, who is swinging a hot bat and is listed at +240. The matchup, the ballpark, and the splits all line up. I like all of Soto's MLB props today, which includes his total bases.
Best Bet: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +240
Let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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