MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 7: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back with the best MLB bets today for Thursday, May 7! We've got a total bases prop, a pitching outs bet, and a few home run picks today on the agenda. Let's dive into it!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 7

Let's start with one of the best players in baseball. Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 total bases is one of my MLB best bets today at -120 on BetMGM Sportsbook. The Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians, and Witt draws a tasty matchup against Slade Cecconi.

Per Baseball Savant, Cecconi carries a 5.63 xERA, ranks in just the 14th percentile in expected batting average, and is surrendering a hefty 11.8% barrel rate. He also ranks well below league average in both whiff rate and strikeout rate.

Where it gets really interesting is his splits. Cecconi is something of a reverse-splits guy, allowing a .282 ISO to right-handed hitters while striking out just 11% of them this season. Hitters have been locking in on his fastball, and the power numbers against righties are telling.

Witt is too talented to pass up in this spot. He's recorded at least one hit in 16 of his last 17 games and now gets a matchup against a pitcher who can't punch out right-handed hitters and is surrendering significant power against them. Whether the extra-base power comes or not, Witt should be putting the ball in play — and putting it in play hard. Give me over 1.5 total bases.

Best Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases BetMGM, -120

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Bet Now BetMGM Promo

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

MLB Player Props Today: Mitch Keller Over 16.5 Pitching Outs

Mitch Keller over 16.5 pitching outs is another strong MLB player prop today at -135 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pittsburgh Pirates righty isn't exactly racking up strikeouts this year, but he's been extremely effective at limiting hard contact.

Per Baseball Savant, Keller ranks in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate allowed, and his xERA sits slightly above league average, which is good enough given the matchup. Keller draws the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank 27th in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitchers this season per FanGraphs. The Diamondbacks are hitting a putrid .228 against righties in 2026. Arizona also ranks 28th in walk rate, meaning they're simply not finding ways to get on base.

Yes, Paul Skenes threw a gem yesterday, which kept Pittsburgh's bullpen mostly intact for today. But I don't think five and two-thirds innings is a big ask for a pitcher who isn't giving up power against a lineup that has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching all season. Give me Keller to eclipse 16.5 pitching outs as my best MLB bet today.

Best Bet: Mitch Keller Over 16.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -135

New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5+ Get $100 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

Bet Now DraftKings Promo

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $100 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: Promos | DraftKings Sportsbook . Ends 5/31/26 at 11:59 PM ET.

Home Run Picks Today: Kody Clemens

For my MLB home run bets today, we're heading to Washington, D.C., where the Minnesota Twins take on Jake Irvin. The weather isn't ideal (around 60 degrees), but it could be worse, and the matchup is hard to ignore.

Irvin continues to be terrible against left-handed hitters under the hood. His ISO allowed to lefties is just .156, but his expected ISO jumps all the way to .261 per Baseball Savant, which is screaming that the left-handed power will eventually catch up to him. The long-term historical numbers are correct here, and it's only a matter of time.

Kody Clemens is my top target at +410 on FanDuel Sportsbook. He owned a .259 ISO against right-handed pitching last season, and the underlying metrics against Irvin set up well for a lefty with pop. If you want an alternative dart throw, Josh Bell is available at +490 on FanDuel as well, but Clemens is the primary play.

Best Bet: Kody Clemens to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +410

Good luck Thursday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!

New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed - When You Bet $5 for 7 Days!

Bet Now

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, KY, WV). Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.gamblersanonymous.org . Must be 21+ in NJ, PA, MI, or WV. $10 first deposit req. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus spins which expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. Contact 1-877-770-7867 (LA).