MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 6: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back with the best MLB bets today for Wednesday, May 6, and we've got a strikeout under, a total bases prop, and a home run pick to work through. Let's get into the action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 6

Patrick Corbin under 3.5 strikeouts is one of my MLB best bets today at +102 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Patrick Corbin just won't go away — good for him. He's extended a Major League career longer than most thought was possible. But longevity doesn't mean it's been pretty.

Per Baseball Savant, Corbin's strikeout rate sits in just the 34th percentile, while his whiff and chase rates are no better than the 23rd percentile, which is well below league average. He carries a 5.69 xERA and doesn't have the swing-and-miss stuff to rack up strikeouts against a disciplined lineup.

The Rays' matchup is a tough one. Tampa Bay owns the seventh-best strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Corbin struck out just around 20% of hitters overall in 2025, and this season, he's punching out just 14% of right-handed hitters. That's a big key, as the Rays could send out at least seven right-handed hitters against him today.

Oddsmakers have his 15.5 outs prop juiced toward the under as well, which implies they don't believe he'll push five innings. Getting this at plus money makes it a solid bet.

Best Bet: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, +102

MLB Player Props Today: Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Total Bases

Trevor Larnach over 1.5 total bases is one of my favorite MLB player props today at +120 on BetMGM Sportsbook. The Twins and Nationals get underway at 6:45 p.m. ET, and Larnach draws one of the better matchups on the board.

Washington sends out Miles Mikolas, a 37-year-old righty whose peripherals suggest Father Time may have finally caught up to him. Over the last three years, his expected batting average against sat between .271 and .286, with his expected slugging percentage topping .500 in two of those three seasons.

This year, his xERA is 5.20, while he ranks in just the 12th percentile in barrel rate and 26th percentile in hard-hit rate per Baseball Savant. It's not surprising that he's striking out just 15% of hitters.

Against right-handed pitching this season, Larnach has been excellent, with a .338 batting average and a .462 slugging percentage, adding six doubles and eight RBIs. He's a reliable presence toward the top of Minnesota's order. The kicker is how vulnerable Washington's bullpen has been. They've allowed 25 home runs on the season and carry a 4.77 ERA into today's matchup. If Mikolas struggles early, the pen doesn't provide much relief. Give me Larnach at plus odds.

Best Bet: Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Total Bases BetMGM, +120

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Home Run Picks Today: Brandon Lowe

For my MLB home run bets today, we're heading to Chase Field, where the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Brandon Lowe is my target at +440 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arizona's Michael Soroka has flashed at times this year, but there's a significant gap in his advanced metrics against left-handed power. His ISO against lefties is just .125 — but his expected ISO balloons to .211 per Baseball Savant, meaning he's been getting lucky. Soroka is also highly predictable, throwing fastballs over 40% of the time to left-handed hitters.

Lowe is built for this spot. He owns a .325 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and dating back to the start of 2025, his ISO against right-handed fastballs is .384 — a big boy power number. Chase Field is a hitter-friendly, controlled environment, and the visiting Pirates are guaranteed that ninth-inning at-bat. The matchup, the park, the splits, and a better-than-4-to-1 price all align. Lowe is my favorite home run pick today.

Best Bet: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +440

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