MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 5: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back with the best MLB bets today for Tuesday, May 5, and we've got two strikeout props and home run picks today to analyze. Let's get into it!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 5

Andrew Abbott under 4.5 strikeouts is one of my MLB best bets today at -150 on BetMGM Sportsbook. If I'm thinking of pitchers who've regressed in 2026, Abbott is right at the top of the list alongside Kansas City's Noah Cameron. It's been ugly.

Abbott ranks in just the 12th percentile in strikeout rate, 22nd percentile in whiff rate, and owns an unserious 5.21 xERA, according to Baseball Savant. He's not keeping the ball on the ground, and it looks like the wheels have completely fallen off compared to last season. Those who have faded him in 2026 are already victory lapping.

The Cubs' matchup cooperates. Chicago is striking out just 21.8% of the time against left-handed pitchers this season, which is the 13th-best mark in baseball against southpaws, per FanGraphs. I'll happily take the 4.5 number at -150, but I wouldn't pay any more juice than what BetMGM is currently offering.

Best Bet: Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 Strikeouts BetMGM, -150

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MLB Player Props Today: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Jacob deGrom over 6.5 strikeouts is my favorite MLB player prop today at +114 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The vintage two-time Cy Young winner is having a sensational season.

Per Baseball Savant, deGrom ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate at 32.5%, and everything else looks great under the hood. The New York Yankees are a completely average strikeout team against right-handed pitching this season, punching out at a 22% clip — good for ranking in the middle of the pack.

A former colleague of mine (@RogersPicks on X) posted an interesting graphic showing that, as of Monday, the Yankees have struck out the sixth-most against opposing starting pitchers this season. That makes total sense, as the Yankees tend to struggle to make contact against any pitcher with above-average stuff, and deGrom has well-above-average stuff right now.

Give me deGrom at great odds.

Best Bet: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +114

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Home Run Picks Today: Riley Greene

For my MLB home run bets today, we're heading to Detroit, where the Tigers take on Brayan Bello. The hitting weather isn't great, but the matchup against left-handed hitters is about as good as it gets right now.

Bello has worked with Pedro Martinez over the past couple of years after signing an expensive contract. Things simply haven't clicked. He owns a 9.12 ERA this season and is being absolutely thrashed by left-handed hitters this year. Lefties are slugging a ridiculous .828 against him with seven home runs on the year.

Bello's expected ERA sits at 8.06, which ranks in the 2nd percentile per Baseball Savant. He's yielding a near 14% barrel rate. When the ball gets in the air against him, it gets hit hard.

Riley Greene is my target at +490 on FanDuel Sportsbook. He's posted a .168 ISO this season, but his expected ISO is nearly 100 points higher at .262. Significant positive regression is coming on the power side. He's only hit four home runs this season, making this a classic get-right spot.

The hitting weather isn't great, but that seemed to be priced in here. Greene has the ability to sneak one down the line against Bello's generous barrel rate.

Best Bet: Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run FanDuel +490

Good luck Tuesday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!

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