MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 28: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back to discuss the best MLB bets today for May 28! We're fading the strikeout totals of two of the best pitchers in baseball in tough matchups, and we're targeting home run picks today at Camden Yards. Here are the best MLB picks today for Thursday!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 28

Paul Skenes under 6.5 strikeouts at -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Chicago Cubs. Skenes was a winner for us five days ago on a strikeout under, and the setup is similar here.

Skenes is probably the best pitcher in baseball, and he can go off at any moment. But what makes him elite is that he doesn't need to punch out every batter to dominate — he can win with efficiency, precision, and hitting his spots.

Chicago has been one of the better contact teams in baseball in the month of May, striking out at just a 20.9% clip, which ranks 12th-best in the league. Skenes could have a fantastic outing and still only punch out six batters. Give me Skenes to be efficient and effective without absolutely obliterating the Cubs.

Best Bet: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -110

MLB Player Props Today: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts

Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts at +102 is one of my favorite MLB player props today as the Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox. It might feel funny to back another under on another premier arm, but the logic is sound.

Sale's underlying metrics are absolutely unreal. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate and the 98th percentile in chase rate per Baseball Savant. However, Boston is striking out at just a 20.3% clip against left-handed pitchers this season, which is a top-10 rate in the league, and they've been just as disciplined in the month of May.

The Red Sox have also woken up offensively in May against lefties, posting the fourth-best wRC+ mark in the league against left-handed pitching since May 1. Sale could have a great day and still land right around seven strikeouts against this Boston lineup. Getting better than even money on the under is what pushes this one over the edge.

Best Bet: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +102

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Home Run Picks Today: Pete Alonso

Thursday's slate is on the lighter side for home run spots, but Patrick Corbin at Camden Yards is worth targeting. Corbin ranks below league average in ground-ball rate, in just the 25th percentile in hard-hit rate, and below league average in barrel rate per Baseball Savant. He is somehow still finding his way into a major league rotation, and we'll happily take advantage.

The hitting conditions at Camden Yards look favorable — sunny skies and 72 degrees, with a cross breeze that should play roughly neutral. Pete Alonso at +360 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my favorite home run pick today. The Polar Bear's ISO sits at just .143 against left-handed pitchers this season, but his expected ISO is a massive .267, which is more than 100 points higher. We also know historically that Alonso has absolutely raked against left-handed pitching. Getting better than even money on a premier power hitter against a struggling southpaw is more than a fair price.

Best Bet: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +360

Good luck Thursday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!

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