MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 22: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Friday's best MLB bets today feature a quality pitching matchup in Philadelphia, Gerrit Cole's long-awaited Yankees' debut in the Bronx, and a power spot in Kansas City. We'll also dive into home run picks today for May 22. Let's get into the action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 22

Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeouts at +106 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. Getting better than even money on this number is exactly where I want to be.

Williams is an uber-talented arm enjoying another strong season. Per Baseball Savant, his strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate all sit in the 80th percentile range, so the stuff is pure. He rarely gets barreled or hit hard, and he has the nasty breaking ball to make hitters chase.

Meanwhile, the Phillies rank fourth in the league in chase percentage, meaning they're willing to go fishing outside the zone. Philadelphia is striking out at 21.9% against right-handed pitchers on the season, but since May 1, that number has climbed roughly three percentage points, which is the eighth-highest increase in baseball. All the boxes are checked here at better than even money.

Best Bet: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, +106

MLB Player Props Today: Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts

As much as I like Gerrit Cole as a pitcher, his under 4.5 strikeouts line at +118 is one of my favorite MLB player props today. Cole is slated to make his 2026 debut at Yankee Stadium against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Cole is a household name with a decorated career, and it's great for baseball to have him healthy. But this is his first Major League outing after a serious injury, and I can't imagine the Yankees pushing him too hard with playoff aspirations on the line.

He reached 84 pitches in his most recent rehab outing, and I'd expect New York to cap him somewhere around 90 on Friday. It might take Cole a few starts to find his stride.

The matchup makes this even more compelling. Tampa Bay owns a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in May and ranks second-best against righties on the season per FanGraphs. It's a brutal draw for a pitcher making his season debut. Getting +118 on the under is what pushes this one over the edge.

Best Bet: Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, +118

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Home Run Picks Today: Julio Rodriguez

For my MLB home run picks today, we're heading to Kansas City, where the Royals host the Seattle Mariners with Noah Cameron on the mound. We've been targeting Cameron's regression for a while now. In 2025, he posted a tidy 2.99 ERA, but in 2026, regression hit him like a freight train.

Cameron's ERA and expected ERA are nearly identical in the 5.40 range, and per Baseball Savant, he ranks in just the eighth percentile in ground-ball rate, 24th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 14th percentile in barrel rate. Everything is trending in the wrong direction for Cameron and the right direction for hitters hunting home runs.

Julio Rodriguez is my favorite home run bet today, and his odds are absurd on DraftKings. Rodriguez has six home runs in just 51 at-bats against left-handed pitchers this season with a .667 slugging percentage. This is typically the time of year when he starts heating up, and the underlying tools are still elite.

Rodriguez sits in the 95th percentile in bat speed per Baseball Savant. He flashed elite expected slugging and average exit velocity last year, and we're waiting for those numbers to fully surface in 2026. A matchup against a struggling left-hander at Kauffman Stadium is about as good as it gets.

Best Bet: Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +545

Good luck Friday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!

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