MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 21: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Our MLB best bets today hit a pair of pitching unders, and while the temperatures aren't as warm across the country, we'll target home run picks today at Yankee Stadium. Let's get into the best MLB picks for Thursday, May 21.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 21
Sandy Alcantara under 18.5 outs at -151 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. The Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on Thursday in a National League East clash. There's a bit of juice here, but I think it's warranted.
Alcantara hasn't gone over this line since his second start of the season back in April. His leash is long, but he hasn't pitched more than six innings in well over a month. Sandy's pitch count tends to climb quickly, his whiff rate is below the league average, and his strikeout rate sits in just the 18th percentile per Baseball Savant. It's a grind for him every time out.
The Marlins were off to a scorching start to the season, but have since slid six games under .500, which is firmly into non-competitive territory. Meanwhile, the trade deadline is suddenly approaching this summer, and Alcantara's name should surfacing in rumors again. Miami has little incentive to overwork their ace. Give me Alcantara to stay under 18.5 outs on Thursday.
Best Bet: Sandy Alcantara Under 18.5 Outs DraftKings, -151
MLB Player Props Today: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Carlos Rodon under 5.5 strikeouts at -140 on DraftKings Sportsbook is one of my favorite MLB player props today. Rodon is making just his third appearance of the 2026 season after a lengthy IL stint.
The southpaw climbed to 88 pitches against the Mets in his last outing, so he may push toward 90 today. However, he hasn't been able to complete five innings in either of his first two starts. The matchup adds another layer of difficulty. Per Baseball Savant, Toronto has the second-best chase-contact percentage in baseball, so when the Blue Jays chase, they're making contact at an elite rate.
Toronto owns the fifth-best strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. This is a tough draw for a pitcher still rounding back into form in his third start back. The under is the play.
Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES Home Run Picks Today: Ben Rice
Thursday's slate is a tough one for home run picks today. The heat wave that dominated the East Coast earlier this week has taken a brief hiatus. There's no great combination of weather conditions and home run-vulnerable pitching to attack. This may be the worst slate for home runs we've seen all season.
That said, Ben Rice at +350 on FanDuel Sportsbook is too good to pass up on principle alone. Rice has quietly become the breakout candidate of the year, ranking third in baseball with 16 home runs. Rice is still not being priced like an elite home run hitter.
Rice is an absolute monster under the hood. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage. Temperatures are only in the 60s at Yankee Stadium, but he has the short porch working in his favor and is mashing just about everybody right now. Nobody is safe from Ben Rice, who is on pace for a historic season in New York.
Best Bet: Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +350
Good luck Thursday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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