MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 2: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We're back with the best MLB bets today for Saturday, May 2, and we've got a pair of strikeout props and a home run pick to close out the week. Let's get into it.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 2

Connelly Early under 4.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB best bets today at +105 on BetMGM Sportsbook. This is partially an odds play, but the matchup backs it up just as much.

Early is pretty much average or below average in nearly every advanced pitching metric this season. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in just the 44th percentile in strikeout rate, 48th percentile in chase rate, and 32nd percentile in whiff rate. His expected ERA sits north of 5.00 despite a sparkling surface ERA, which suggests regression is coming from a pitcher who simply isn't missing bats right now.

The Houston Astros make this a tough matchup. Houston owns the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in baseball this season, per FanGraphs. Early's primary weapon is his sinker, and the projected Astros' lineup has been very good against left-handed sinkers dating back to last season.

Outside of one or two strikeout-prone bats, this lineup projects to punch out less than 20% of the time across the board. Getting plus money on the under makes this one of the better MLB player props today.

Best Bet: Connelly Early Under 4.5 Strikeouts BetMGM, +105

MLB Player Props Today: Nolan McLean Over 7.5 Strikeouts

Nolan McLean over 7.5 strikeouts at +120 on BetMGM Sportsbook is one of the best-priced props on the board today. The same bet is hanging at -152 on FanDuel at 6.5 strikeouts if you prefer to play a lower line with more juice.

McLean has been outstanding this season. He ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate and 70th percentile in whiff rate per Baseball Savant, and he carries five pitches with putaway percentages north of 20%. The leash has been long too — he's eclipsed 90 pitches in each of his last five outings, including hitting the 100-pitch mark earlier in April. He's going to get enough runway to get there.

The Los Angeles Angels are the perfect piece of the puzzle to attack this over. They're striking out over 26% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, which is two full percentage points higher than the second-worst team, the Baltimore Orioles, per FanGraphs. This one checks every box.

Best Bet: Nolan McLean Over 7.5 Strikeouts BetMGM, +120

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Home Run Picks Today: Vinnie Pasquantino

For my MLB home run bets today, bad hitting weather is limiting my options, but Vinnie Pasquantino at +540 on FanDuel Sportsbook in the Mariners-Royals game is where I'm going.

T-Mobile Park isn't typically a home run hunter's best friend, but it'll be around 70 degrees at first pitch tonight with the roof likely partially open. The park is not ideal, but it's better than most of the country today.

Mariners' starter Emerson Hancock is allowing a 12% barrel rate this season and does a decent job keeping the ball on the ground, but the splits tell a different story against left-handed hitters. He's yielding a .237 ISO and a .296 expected ISO against lefties. That's a significant gap that implies he should be getting hit harder.

Pasquantino is currently posting a .230 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and while it's been a slow start overall, he hit a home run yesterday — a sign things may be clicking. At +540, the price is generous enough to make this my top home run prediction today.

Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +540

Good luck Saturday — let's have a great weekend!

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