MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 19: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Tuesday's MLB slate features two pitching props and home run picks today in some good hitting weather. Our MLB bets today feature Chase Burns, Jesus Luzardo, and Brandon Lowe at enormous odds in St. Louis. Let's get into the best MLB picks for Tuesday, May 19!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 19

Chase Burns under 4.5 hits allowed at +120 on BetMGM Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Cincinnati Reds visit Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. It's going to be a scorcher in Pennsylvania tonight, but I'm taking a different angle on Burns. Rather than the strikeout line, I'm targeting the hits prop at better than even money.

We know Burns' stuff is nasty, and the Phillies haven't been too dangerous against right-handed pitching despite improved overall play. Since May 1, Philadelphia ranks just 21st in wRC+ and 20th in batting average against right-handed pitchers.

Burns has covered this hits line in each of his last three outings. The Phillies have played better baseball since parting ways with manager Rob Thomson, but the right-handed struggles remain. The price is more than reasonable for how good Burns' stuff is.

Best Bet: Chase Burns Under 4.5 Hits Allowed BetMGM, +120

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MLB Player Props Today: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts at -138 on FanDuel Sportsbook is one of my favorite MLB player props today, and we don't even have to leave Citizens Bank Park for this one. This shapes up as a potential pitcher's duel in extreme heat, and I'll take Luzardo to shove.

Luzardo has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2026 and remains one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. His ERA sits north of 5.00, but his expected ERA is down at 3.16 per Baseball Savant. Under the hood, he ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, hard-hit rate allowed, and groundball rate. I'll keep buying low on Luzardo until things start to even out.

The matchup couldn't be much better. Since May 1, the Cincinnati Reds have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitchers. Luzardo is coming off a start where he struck out just four Red Sox hitters, which might have helped this line remain at 6.5 today.

Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -138

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Home Run Picks Today: Brandon Lowe

For my MLB home run picks today, there's excellent hitting weather across the board, but I want to highlight a massive price play at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Temperatures are projected to be north of 70 degrees at first pitch, and we can get ridiculous odds on a veteran power hitter.

Brandon Lowe to hit a home run at +620 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my home run pick today. Matthew Liberatore gets the start for St. Louis, and the lefty has given up five home runs to left-handed hitters in just 46 at-bats this season, with those lefties slugging .717.

Small sample size noted, but the underlying profile backs it up. Liberatore ranks in the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 20th percentile in groundball rate, and the 27th percentile in barrel rate per Baseball Savant.

Lowe is a veteran power hitter who absolutely mashes right-handed pitching. Admittedly, his numbers against lefties dating back to last season are not great, which is likely why the odds sit at +620. But I'll take a quality hitter at a massive price against a pitcher who has shown real vulnerability to same-handed power. This is a pure price play in a favorable matchup.

Best Bet: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +620

Good luck Tuesday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!

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