MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 16: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome back! We've got the best MLB picks today locked in across pitcher props and home run picks today. Let's dive into the best MLB player props for May 16.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 16

Chris Bassitt under 4.5 strikeouts at -154 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my top MLB pick today. Bassitt's stuff has just diminished over the past couple of seasons, and the underlying numbers in 2026 paint a brutal picture for any strikeout over.

The right-hander ranks in just the 8th percentile in strikeout rate, the 7th percentile in chase rate, and around the 30th percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. The chase number is the killer. Hitters simply aren't biting on pitches out of the zone, which is exactly what you need to rack up swinging strikeouts. Bassitt's overall K rate this season sits at 14.5%, well below the league average.

The matchup tilts further against him. The Nationals own the seventh-best strikeout rate against right-handed pitching so far in 2026, and they grind out pesky plate appearances from a young, contact-oriented lineup. Bassitt has to work for every out right now, and at -154, I'm comfortable laying the price for him to fall short of five punchouts.

Best Bet: Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -154

MLB Picks Today: Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 Strikeouts

Cristopher Sanchez over 7.5 strikeouts at +112 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my favorite plus-money MLB pick today.

Sanchez's stuff is filthy again in 2026. He ranks in the 96th percentile in chase rate and is striking out 28.4% of hitters this season. The chase profile is what makes this prop stand out. The Pirates have one of the worst chase-contact percentages in baseball, meaning they miss a ton of pitches out of the zone.

Pittsburgh has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league against left-handed pitching. Eight or more strikeouts are very much in play here, especially at plus money.

Best Bet: Cristopher Sánchez Over 7.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, +112

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Home Run Picks Today: Cardinals at Busch Stadium

We'll close with home run picks today as the Royals visit the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. First-pitch temperatures are projected north of 80 degrees, which is beautiful for us. Left-hander Noah Cameron takes the bump for Kansas City, and the regression has hit him hard this year.

Cameron ranks in just the 6th percentile in barrel rate and the 5th percentile in ground-ball rate, according to Baseball Savant. His expected ISO against left-handed hitters sits at .357, and he's throwing his fastball about a third of the time to lefties. That's key, as left-handed hitters are posting a .333 ISO against Cameron's fastball, with an expected ISO at a staggering .538.

That points us to two Cardinals lefties who have been a touch unlucky from a power perspective against same-handed pitchers. JJ Wetherholt has a .113 ISO but a .204 expected ISO this season vs. LHP, and Alec Burleson sits at a .078 ISO with a .241 expected ISO. It's not often that I'll target lefty-lefty matchups, but it looks like these Cardinals are in a great spot at fantastic odds.

You can grab Wetherholt at +540 and Burleson at +520 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Both are strong shots given the matchup, the heat, and Cameron's regression case.

Best Bet: JJ Wetherholt to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +540

Best Bet: Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run FanDuel,+520

Let's cash some MLB picks today!