MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 15: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

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Author Justin Carlucci | Published at May 15, 2026
May 12, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (35) cannot catch a ball in foul territory during the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

It's Friday, and we're hunting for the best MLB bets today! We have a strikeout prop in a brutal matchup and a few home run picks today against one of the worst starters in baseball. Let's get into the best MLB picks today for May 15.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 15

Andrew Abbott under 4.5 strikeouts at -132 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Cincinnati Reds visit the Cleveland Guardians. Abbott has been a major regression candidate in 2026, and the matchup pours gasoline on it.

Per Baseball Savant, Abbott ranks in the 26th percentile or worse in whiff percentage, chase percentage, and strikeout rate. He simply isn't missing bats at a Major League level right now.

The Guardians, meanwhile, have been elite against southpaws, as they own the fifth-best strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching at 18.9%. Cleveland also ranks fourth in chase-contact percentage per Baseball Savant, meaning when they do chase, they're putting the bat on the ball. Abbott's strikeout line is typically 4.5 or 5.5; in this matchup, the true number is probably closer to 3.5.

Best Bet: Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -132

MLB Player Props Today: Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Total Bases

Adley Rutschman over 1.5 total bases at +120 on BetMGM Sportsbook is one of my favorite MLB player props today as the Baltimore Orioles take on Zack Littell and the Washington Nationals.

Littell legitimately might not be a Major League pitcher right now. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the first percentile in whiff rate, first percentile in strikeout rate, has an expected ERA of 7.63, surrenders elite average exit velocity, and is allowing a 12.3% barrel rate.

Pretty much everything you don't want to see in a starter's profile is showing up. Hitting conditions in Washington are fine — mid-60s, nothing exceptional — but the matchup is too good to ignore.

Rutschman has been phenomenal since returning from the injured list. In a small sample against right-handed pitching this season, he's posting a .254 ISO and a .400 wOBA while striking out just 15% of the time. After a down year in 2025, Rutschman is starting to flash that ceiling again. Better than even money against this pitcher is an extremely reasonable hitting prop.

Best Bet: Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Total Bases BetMGM, +120

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Home Run Picks Today: Adley Rutschman & Gunnar Henderson

For my MLB home run picks today, we're sticking with the same matchup against Zack Littell. Littell has given up 14 home runs already this season, and 11 of those have come against left-handed hitters in just 82 at-bats — an alarming rate. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 27th percentile in ground-ball rate and the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate. There's nothing in his 2026 profile worth defending.

Adley Rutschman to hit a home run at +590 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my top home run pick today. Rutschman is typically more of a gap hitter, but he's homered twice in his last six games and now has six home runs in just 103 at-bats. At better than 5-1 in this matchup, those are ridiculous odds for a kid slugging the ball right now.

Gunnar Henderson is also squarely in play at +360 on FanDuel. Henderson is hitting under the Mendoza Line at .197, but he has nine home runs already, with six coming against right-handed pitching in 135 at-bats. He posted a .200 ISO against righties last season, and the season is still young. Both Orioles are in a great spot against Littell on Friday.

Best Bet: Adley Rutschman to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +590

Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +360

Good luck! Let's cash these MLB best bets.

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