MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 14: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome to our MLB best bets today! We have two strikeout overs and home run picks today against an aging pitcher. We'll roll with Chase Burns against the Nationals, Jesus Luzardo against a slumping Red Sox lineup, and chase Yordan Alvarez's power against Luis Castillo. Let's get into the best MLB picks today for Thursday, May 14.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 14

Chase Burns over 6.5 strikeouts at -140 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Cincinnati Reds host the Washington Nationals. Honestly, I'm not sure the oddsmakers could set this line high enough where I wouldn't be interested in the over.

The Nationals are a completely average strikeout team against right-handed pitching on the season, but the recent trend tells a different story. Washington owns the seventh-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last four weeks.

Burns continues to be an animal, ranking in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and the 75th percentile in strikeout rate per Baseball Savant. With a whiff rate that elite, there's likely even more room for his 26.1% strikeout rate to grow.

Burns threw six innings of one-run ball but struck out just two against the Houston Astros during his last outing. Houston is one of the stingiest strikeout teams in baseball, so I'm not putting much stock into that one. This is a much easier matchup. Burns' stuff is electric, and this sets up perfectly as a bounce-back spot.

Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -140

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MLB Player Props Today: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts at -128 on FanDuel Sportsbook is another one of my favorite MLB player props today. Over the last four weeks, the Boston Red Sox have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in baseball, according to FanGraphs.

Luzardo has a 5.98 ERA, but his expected ERA is all the way down at 3.21 per Baseball Savant. He's been exceptionally unlucky and has run into a couple of random blowup innings in 2026. This is another perfect bounce-back spot after his last outing against the Rockies, where he was cruising until one bad frame.

Boston has been miserable most of the season, and Luzardo's advanced metrics are pretty unbelievable. He ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate. The southpaw keeps the ball on the ground at an elite clip and rarely allows hard contact or barrels.

I'm on board with Luzardo on Thursday and bullish on his long-term outlook for the rest of the season.

Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -128

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Home Run Picks Today: Yordan Alvarez

Let's move on to my MLB home run picks today. Father Time catches up to everybody, and Luis Castillo has been around the block. Castillo carries a miserable 6.57 ERA and a 5.77 expected ERA per Baseball Savant. He's been a little unlucky but still atrocious overall, ranking in the 13th percentile in barrel rate, the 20th percentile in groundball rate, and the third percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.

Lefties are crushing him in 2026. Castillo has given up four home runs to left-handed hitters who are posting a .210 expected ISO. Castillo throws his four-seam fastball roughly 50% of the time to lefties, and they're posting a .304 ISO against the pitch.

Yordan Alvarez is my home run pick today as the obvious left-handed power bat in the Houston lineup. Alvarez is having a phenomenal 2026 with 13 home runs and a .616 slugging percentage. He has seven home runs against right-handed pitching, but it almost doesn't matter, as he's been equally dominant against lefties and righties this year.

After being plagued with injuries over the last couple of seasons, this is a fantastic bounce-back start to 2026 for Alvarez, and Castillo is the kind of pitcher he should punish.

Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +240

Good luck Thursday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!