MLB Today’s Best Bets for May 13: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Welcome back! Wednesday's MLB picks include an outs prop, a total bases bet, and home run picks today at one of the best offensive venues in baseball. Let's get into the best MLB bets today for May 13!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for May 13

Sonny Gray over 15.5 pitching outs at -121 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as the Boston Red Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies at Fenway Park. Gray isn't the pitcher he once was, but the matchup splits set up beautifully here.

Gray has surrendered some reverse-splits power dating back over the last year and a half, and the trend continues in 2026. Right-handed hitters have given him trouble, but lefties are slashing just .213/.262/.295 with one home run against him this season.

Per Baseball Savant, Gray's expected ISO against lefties sits at just .166 with a .254 wOBA allowed. The Phillies have been playing better under interim manager Don Mattingly, but the heavy lifting comes from lefties Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and a now-rolling Brandon Marsh.

The Phillies' right-handed bats don't scare me too much. Trea Turner is off to a slow start, Adolis García has done nothing power-wise, and J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm have minuscule ISOs and below-average wOBAs against right-handed pitching this year.

Gray got yanked at five clean innings in his last start at just 70 pitches, but the context matters, as that outing marked his first start in over two weeks. I expect him to push into the mid-80s on pitch count today, which gets him deep enough into the fifth or sixth to clear this number.

Best Bet: Sonny Gray Over 15.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -121

MLB Player Props Today: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases

Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases at +117 on DraftKings is one of my favorite MLB player props today. The Texas Rangers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field, and we're picking on Rhyne Nelson this afternoon.

Many tabbed Nelson as a breakout candidate, but 2026 hasn't been kind to him. Per Baseball Savant, Nelson is allowing a .326 expected ISO to left-handed hitters this season, ranks in just the sixth percentile in barrel rate, and carries a 5.07 expected ERA.

Seager, meanwhile, has flashed his typical power against right-handed pitching with a .236 ISO. While the season overall hasn't been pretty, all seven of his home runs and five of his six doubles have come against righties.

Best Bet: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, +117

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Home Run Picks Today: Elly De La Cruz

Let's look at some home run picks today. Happy Jake Irvin Day to those who celebrate! If you've been following this column, you know we're attacking him with left-handed power.

After an awful 2025 against lefties, Irvin hasn't been much better against them this year. Overall, Irvin ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed per Baseball Savant, with an expected ERA north of 5.00.

Left-handed power has been his Achilles heel, and that hasn't changed. The matchup is at Great American Ball Park, an excellent hitting environment with mid-60s temperatures. There's also power regression coming, as his ISO allowed to lefties is .150, but his expected ISO is .242, so there's plenty of juice left to squeeze.

Elly De La Cruz to hit a home run at +310 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my favorite home run pick today. De La Cruz carries a .207 expected ISO against right-handed pitchers from the left side of the plate this year, and that profile plays beautifully at Great American Ball Park. JJ Bleday is also in play if he's in the lineup and odds are posted.

Best Bet: Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +310

Good luck Wednesday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!

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