MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 5: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Welcome back to the best MLB bets today! My Friday picks include two strikeout props and home run picks today in St. Louis, where the weather is hot. Here are my top player props for June 5!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 5
Jesus Luzardo is my top MLB bet today. You can grab over 6.5 strikeouts at -108 on DraftKings Sportsbook, as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Chicago White Sox at Citizens Bank Park.
Luzardo had some tough luck in May, as he only recorded more than six strikeouts just once in any appearance. However, he's in a great bounce-back spot on Friday.
Luzardo's underlying metrics are elite. He's sporting a 27.4% strikeout rate per Baseball Savant and ranks no lower than the 88th percentile in both chase percentage and whiff percentage. Together, those numbers complement one another, and you could argue the strikeout rate should be even higher than it already is.
The matchup makes this even more compelling. The White Sox own the seventh-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in baseball at roughly 24% entering Friday. Luzardo is pitching at home on a hot day against one of the more swing-happy lineups in the league. This is a fantastic spot for strikeouts.
Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -108
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days MLB Player Props Today: Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Zebby Matthews over 5.5 strikeouts at -101 is another one of my favorite MLB player props today. Matthews is making his fifth major league start of the season, and the trajectory has been encouraging.
He's had a few cups of coffee at the big league level over the last two years. Matthews has always flashed dominant strikeout stuff in the minors, but putting full games together consistently has been the challenge. This time around, though, Matthews looks different.
Through his first four starts, he's recorded five, six, six, and seven strikeouts, respectively. Additionally, he's reached 100 pitches in two of those outings, which is a great sign for this prop. Zebby's command is improving, and his stuff is getting there.
Meanwhile, the Royals own the ninth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in baseball since May 1. Kansas City isn't the contact-heavy team they were a few seasons ago.
Best Bet: Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -101
Home Run Picks Today: JJ Bleday
Now, for my top MLB home run picks today! The Cincinnati Reds visit the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, and Kyle Leahy is scheduled to take the mound for St. Louis.
Leahy ranks in just the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate and 12th percentile in barrel rate per Baseball Savant. His expected ISO allowed against left-handed hitters is a staggering .271. That's a massive red flag for him, but it's a gigantic green flag for Bleday.
Bleday has been on an absolute heater for the Reds this season. In fact, he's sporting a wild .393 ISO against right-handed pitching. Bleday has looked like a fantastic pickup after his time with the Athletics, and he's locked in at the plate right now.
Additionally, temperatures are projected to be around 85 degrees at Busch Stadium on Friday. Hot weather helps the ball carry. The matchup is as clean as it gets, and yet +411 is sitting right there. That's a gift.
Best Bet: JJ Bleday to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +411
Good luck on Friday. Let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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