MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 4: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
You've found my best MLB bets today for Thursday's big slate! We have two pitchers working their way into expanded roles and home run picks today against a struggling right-hander in hot Philly temperatures. Here are my top MLB picks today for June 4!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 4
Kai-Wei Teng over 15.5 outs at +120 on BetMGM Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today. Teng is a recently converted reliever who has been given a shot in the rotation, and he's posted a 2.57 ERA overall this season.
The plus-money opportunity exists for two reasons. Pittsburgh is suddenly a scary offense against right-handed pitching, owning the highest wRC+ against righties since May 1, and Teng historically hasn't gone deep into games. However, here's what the oddsmakers may not be fully accounting for. The Astros have been deliberately ramping him up.
Teng's pitch counts have climbed steadily over his last four appearances: 63, 76, 89, and 91. That trajectory tells me that, barring trouble, he has more than enough runway to record that one out in the fifth inning.
Teng also carries a 3.59 expected ERA, a 25% strikeout rate, and has done a solid job suppressing hard contact. I'll take the plus money on a starter the oddsmakers haven't fully caught up with yet.
Best Bet: Kai-Wei Teng Over 15.5 Outs BetMGM, +120
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win MLB Player Props Today: Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Carlos Rodon over 5.5 strikeouts at +100 is another one of my favorite MLB player props today. Rodon is making his fifth start of the season after returning from a lengthy injury absence, and the ramp-up is going well. He's thrown at least 93 pitches in back-to-back outings, which is a good sign.
Cleveland has been a stingy strikeout team against right-handed pitching. However, Rodon is a southpaw, and that split looks completely different.
The Guardians have profiled as a league-average strikeout team against left-handed pitching since May 1. Meanwhile, Rodon's stuff has been a bit all over the place, but he's hit this number in two of his four starts in 2026. However, we're getting even money on a pitcher who is historically a big strikeout arm and appears to be almost all the way back. There are a lot of good reasons stacked up here. Give me Rodon to find his footing and punch out six on Thursday.
Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts BetMGM, +100
Home Run Picks Today: Kyle Schwarber
Now, for some home run picks today. Temperatures are pushing 90 degrees at first pitch in Philadelphia this afternoon, and the ball always seems to travel a little farther in South Philly when it's a scorcher.
Lucas Giolito takes the mound for San Diego, and he has been as inconsistent as it gets over the last couple of years. The red flag here is his expected ISO against left-handed hitters, which sits at .205.
He's been throwing his fastball over 50% of the time to left-handed batters, and that's music to my ears. Kyle Schwarber at +210 on FanDuel Sportsbook is my top home run pick today. I understand the odds aren't lavish, but dating back to the start of last season, Schwarber owns an absurd .401 ISO against right-handed fastballs.
Giolito is a right-handed pitcher throwing fastballs at a high rate to a left-handed masher. I love this pick, especially due to the extreme heat.
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +210
Good luck Thursday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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