MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 30: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
We're back to check out my best MLB props today for June 30th! We've got a loaded MLB slate on Tuesday, and there is a heatwave kicking off on the East Coast, which means the baseball should be flying. Let's dive into the best MLB player props for Tuesday!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 30
Noah Cameron under 4.5 strikeouts at -131 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today.
I've been fading Cameron quite a bit this season, and I'm going right back to the well on Tuesday with the Royals hosting the Rays at 7:40 p.m. ET. He hasn't been quite as bad as he was earlier in the year, but he still ranks in just the 35th percentile in expected ERA, and his 21% strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate all sit no higher than the 40th percentile.
The Royals' lefty is profiling as a below-average strikeout arm, and that's a brutal draw against Tampa Bay. Yandy Diaz got banged up a couple of days ago but is expected back for this series, which is great news here. Diaz has been one of the toughest outs at the plate over the past couple of seasons.
Overall, the Rays own the third-best strikeout rate against lefties in June, and they rank third on the season too, so it's no fluke. Throw in Junior Caminero, maybe the hottest hitter in baseball over the last 10 days, and this is a tough spot for Cameron to rack up strikeouts.
Best Bet: Noah Cameron Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -131
MLB Player Props Today: Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 Strikeouts
Cristopher Sanchez over 7.5 strikeouts at +109 makes the list of my best MLB player props today. The Phillies host the Pirates at Citizens Bank Park, where the ball will be flying in the heat.
Sanchez hasn't been perfect lately. The Nationals got to him a couple of days ago, but the strikeout stuff is still elite. The Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in baseball this season, and in June they're not far off that baseline with the sixth-worst mark against lefties.
Meanwhile, Sanchez's advanced profile is about as good as it gets: 86th percentile in strikeout rate at a tick over 28%, 89th percentile whiff rate, and 98th percentile chase rate per Baseball Savant. There's still juice to squeeze here. I think we see some runs on both sides in the hot South Philly air, but give me Sanchez to do damage in the strikeout column.
Best Bet: Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +109
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Bryce Harper
Now, for my MLB home run picks today! I'm sticking right at Citizens Bank Park and going with Bryce Harper to go deep at +290.
Kyle Schwarber is probably the most likely Phillie to go deep at +163, so I totally get it if that's your bet. However, I'm not going below 2-to-1 on a slate this big, and Harper is in just as good of a spot. Temperatures should be in the high 80s with an excessive heat warning in the Philly area, and Citizens Bank Park is a great run environment regardless.
Harper carries a .351 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, Bubba Chandler has allowed far more power to lefties than righties, which includes an ISO well north of .200 against left-handed hitters. The lefties have given him fits, and now he has to navigate a red-hot Harper in the middle of that order in the heat.
Best Bet: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +290
Good luck, and let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 30: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
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