MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 26: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
We're back with the best MLB bets for June 26! Two picks in one game are really standing out to me, including a home run pick today at fantastic odds. Here are my top MLB picks for Friday!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 26
Paul Skenes over 8.5 strikeouts at +110 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today, and I love getting one of the best pitchers in baseball at these odds.
Now, this is a high prop line, and we've actually cashed some unders on Skenes' strikeout number this season against certain stingy opponents. But this is an unbelievable matchup for him. The Cincinnati Reds own the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching since June 1, and they've been absolutely terrible at making contact this month.
Rewind the sample to the start of the season, and they've still got the second-worst mark in baseball. This version of the Reds lineup features a handful of bats striking out at least 25% of the time against righties. That puts Skenes in a fantastic spot to get the job done, and at +110 for nine-plus Ks, the price is right.
Best Bet: Paul Skenes Over 8.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +110
MLB Player Props Today: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts
My next favorite MLB prop today is Trevor Rogers under 5.5 strikeouts at -150. The southpaw will square off against a Washington Nationals lineup that's been swinging a hot bat against lefties.
Washington has been very, very good against left-handed pitching in June, and it was on full display against Cristopher Sanchez on Wednesday. The Nats own the second-highest wRC+ against southpaws this month while striking out just a hair over 21% of the time against them, which lands them in the top third of the league in avoiding strikeouts versus lefties.
Rogers, meanwhile, has hit the regression wall compared to last year. He ranks in just the 15th percentile in strikeout rate according to Baseball Savant. He does carry a high chase rate, but the Nationals have been a pretty darn disciplined group against lefties, so I like Rogers to land at five or fewer on Friday.
Best Bet: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -150
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Bryan Reynolds
Now, for my MLB home run picks today! I love Bryan Reynolds to go deep against Andrew Abbott at +520.
Reynolds has been an awesome switch-hitting bat for the Pirates this season — off the top of my head, he might be their longest-tenured player, and he's been a stabilizing force in the middle of that lineup. He's carrying a .250 ISO against left-handed pitching this year, which sets up nicely here.
Abbott, on the other hand, has regressed hard from last season, and his numbers are brutal across the board. He's below average at keeping the ball on the ground, and his barrel rate allowed has slipped to league average.
The bigger red flag is the hard contact. Abbott ranked in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed last year, and that mark has fallen all the way back to league average this season. He's also surrendered 12 home runs this year, nine of them to right-handed hitters. Reynolds is in a great spot here, and +520 is an awesome price.
Best Bet: Bryan Reynolds to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +520