MLB Today’s Best Bets for June 18: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Happy Thursday! You've found my best MLB bets for June 18! This slate gives us two strikeout unders against red-hot lineups and a home run pick today in Philadelphia, where the matchup is too good to pass up. Here are my top MLB picks and analysis!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for June 18

Jack Leiter under 5.5 strikeouts at -134 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB bet today as he takes on a scorching-hot Minnesota Twins lineup.

I'm rolling with a trending Twins team here, and nobody is more of a grease fire right now than Byron Buxton at the top of this order. Minnesota has been insanely good against right-handed pitching in the month of June, absolutely smashing the baseball against righties and owning the fifth-highest weighted runs created plus (wRC+) mark in that split.

Most importantly, they own the stingiest strikeout rate in baseball at just north of 17% against right-handed pitching since June 1st. This is a brutal matchup for Leiter, whose stuff remains pedestrian. He profiles as an average strikeout pitcher, with chase rates and whiff rates that sit either at league average or slightly below it.

Best Bet: Jack Leiter Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -134

MLB Player Props Today: Noah Cameron Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Noah Cameron under 4.5 strikeouts is next on my list of best bets today against another team trending hard in June — the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals have been excellent against left-handed pitching this month, owning the fourth-best mark in baseball with just a 16.6% strikeout rate. Zoom out to the entire season, and the picture gets even better: in a monster sample size, St. Louis is the best team in Major League Baseball at avoiding strikeouts against lefties.

Cameron has looked much better recently than he did earlier in the season, but I'm still not confident in him racking up a bunch of strikeouts against an elite Cardinals lineup that consistently puts the bat on the ball. Give me the under.

Best Bet: Noah Cameron Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -108

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Home Run Picks Today: Juan Soto 

Now, for my MLB home run picks today! We head to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, where Aaron Nola — who likes to serve up a bunch of meatballs — takes the mound for the Phillies.

Nola is allowing a .208 ISO against left-handed hitters so far this season, and Juan Soto has really lived up to the bill after a slow start to the year, proving once again he's worth every dollar and penny the Mets paid him. Soto owns a .287 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but he's actually been a bit unlucky. While that's a monster number in its own right, his expected ISO sits all the way up at .360.

That's a large gap, meaning there's even more juice left to squeeze in terms of home run potential. Soto's power metrics and under-the-hood numbers are all elite, and I like him to go deep here at +230.

Best Bet: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +230

Good luck on Thursday. Let's cash some MLB best bets today!